Andy is Dandy; outduels Halladay in Toronto (postgame notes 04 August 2009)

Among his many phrases, one of the most obvious--and yet ignored, except in a mocking tone--quotes of John Sterling is simply that "you can't predict baseball."


On paper, this should have been a rough game for the Yankees. They have, historically, struggled against Roy Halladay, and, of late had not been getting Andy Pettitte much in the way of run support.

Thankfully, the games aren't played on paper.

The Yankees never trailed, as they scored two runs in the first before Toronto had an at bat. Although the game did get close at times, the Yankees maintained their lead throughout, making the most important pitches at the most important spots.

Andy Pettitte, the starter, was brilliant.

In his career, Pettitte has solid enough numbers against Toronto, but tonight he needed to match Roy Halladay--and that he did.

He had some of his best stuff all season, and used it in a game where the Yankees sorely needed it.

The Yankee offense was excellent given the opposing starter; like the game on July 4th, the Yankees hit three long balls off of Halladay, this time Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui being the culprits.

The home runs, all solo shots, came late in the game and gave the Yankees insurance runs that they ended up needing, on a night when Mariano Rivera was not at his best.

I wouldn't get too concerned about Rivera; before pitching on Sunday he had not pitched in a while and thus, rust is rust. What matters is that he held onto the lead--if he's still getting hit like this come September, then there's an issue, but he's still 39 years old...

At any rate, the Yankees have won a game that didn't favor them on paper, and all of a sudden there's just a little less pressure on Sergio Mitre tomorrow.

Some Thoughts on Halladay

Right now, nothing has permeated baseball discussion to the point that Roy Halladay has, when JP Ricciardi, GM of the Blue Jays, announced that he would trade Halladay if the right offer came his way.

So I figured I'd offer a few thoughts--feel free to agree or disagree.

• Dealing in-division would likely cost more for the team that trades for Halladay (ie, the Sox or Yankees), but it's by no means prohibitive. David Cone and Roger Clemens both came from within the division; they are probably not the only examples, either.

• The price the Yankees would have to give up would be enormous. You're talking one of Joba/Hughes, Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero and maybe Mark Melancon for good measure. If Ricciardi is really set on dealing Halladay, teams will wait for the price to come down. If there is a move to be made in-season, it probably won't happen until the 11th hour, a la Manny Ramirez.

• The fact that the Jays won't let teams talk to Halladay is a killer. Halladay's contract runs through 2010, so whoever gets him would probably want to extend him. Without the guarantee of an extension, teams cannot be 100% sure if Halladay would stay with them after that season, and giving how much teams would have to give up in the first place, that will no doubt be off-putting to some.
  

• Halladay's comment that he would rather hit than face guys like Matsui, Jeter and Teixeira is kind of odd given his historical success against the Yankees. You can interpret it any number of ways you want, I think, but only Halladay knows what he was really trying to say.

• At this point, going on absolutley nothing but hearsay and gut, I'd have to go with with Philadelphia and Texas as being favorites. Both teams have the prospects to get it done, and both teams desperatley need the pitching. Philadelphia has a percieved added bonus of being an NL team, but I think that's really only a factor if you're a fan. The Rangers don't have nearly the impact on the Jays' season that the Yankees or the Sox would.

• Halladay has struggled (for him, anyway) since coming of the disabled list, but this is probably only temporarily. At any rate, him struggling is the same thing as 90% of other pitchers in the league pitching well.
  

What the Johan Santana Non-Trade Can Tell Us about Roy Halladay

All of the hullaballoo about Roy Halladay being on the trade market has made many Yankee fans think back to the 2007-2008 off-season, and the Johan Santana trade that wasn't.

For those that need a refresher course, let's recap:

• Johan Santana was on the market that season because he was slated to become a free agent at the end of 2008 and the miserly Twins did not want to pay what it would have cost to kept him.

• Therefore, whatever team traded for Santana would also have to be willing to sign him to a long contract extension as well.

• No one not named Brian Cashman and Bill Smith know for sure, but the rumored deal the Yankees had on the table was Hughes + Melky Cabrera + Jeffrey Marquez.

• Santana ended up going to the Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey

• Of the four the Mets traded, only Carlos Gomez is currently playing in the Majors.
  

• It is widely believed that Twins' GM Bill Smith overplayed his hand with the Red Sox and Yankees and settled for a package that, in the words of some, has netted him "nothing".

Got all that?

Good.

Now, 2008 was an interesting season, in that despite the Mets' trade and the Yankees' non-trade, neither team made the playoffs.

For the Mets, the problem in 2008 was not Santana. He pitched to an ERA of 2.58 and an ERA+ of 168--while not the best numbers he's ever put up (especially in WHIP), the numbers are still very, very respectable. Sure, he did give up a grand slam to Felix Hernandez (yes, THAT King Felix), but on the whole Santana did exactly what the Mets needed him to do.

The problem, however, was that the Mets kept blowing his leads. His record, 16-7 for 08, is impressive enough...but when you consider that he started 34 games (thus getting a decision in only 23 of these starts) you begin to see how life went for fans of the Mets last season.


For the Yankees, on the other hand, 2008 was an unmitigated disaster for both Hughes and Cabrera; Marquez's season was un-special enough that he ended up being shipped to Chicago with Wilson Betemit for Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira.

Hughes spent most of 2008 injured; he pitched only 34 innings with a WHIP over 1.70 and an ERA over 6.60.

Cabrera started the season hot and cooled off so much that by the end of the season he had an OBP of .301. He was sent down to AAA Scranton; though by then it was far too little too late. In other words, he was as close to an automatic out in the Yankee line up as you could get.




Fast forward one year later, and things have changed.

For instance, Johan Santana, while not necessarily having a bad season, is having a bad season for him and there are warning signs.

• Since 2002, Santana's 3.29 ERA is second only to his 2006 3.33 ERA. Again, it's not that this is a bad stat, but that it's poor for him. After all, his ERA was 2.53 last season and he's moved from the American League to the weaker National League.

• More concerning: his WHIP of 1.22 is the highest it's been since 2002; his H/9 is the highest since 2002; and his walks are up while strikeouts are down. In other words, his peripheral statistics are declining and, at age 30, Santana should be in the middle--not the wrong end--of his prime.

• Mets fans might want to stay away from this one: in the past nine months, Johan Santana has had knee surgery and elbow problems; now word (still just rumors, but keep your ears open) comes to us today that may have just received a cortisone shot.

• Just for kicks: in his last five starts Santana is 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA and nearly equal strike outs to walks. I know Santana can't be blamed for the shoddy defense behind him, but unearned runs don't count towards ERA and he can't blame that start against the Yankees on his defense.

On the other hand, Phil Hughes is finally (first since 2006) having a healthy season for the Yankees.

Called up as an emergency starter during Wang's first d/l stint, Hughes had one ycch start against Baltimore but was okay otherwise, and getting better. Because he only started seven games his numbers are skewed by the Baltimore start but he seemed to improve each time out after that.

After Wang has returned from the d/l (alas only to go back on it), Hughes was shifted to the bullpen--and here he has flat-out excelled, helping, along with Alfredo Aceves and Phil Coke, to rescue what was one of the league's worst bullpens and turned it into one of the league's best. All you really need to know is that as a reliever, Hughes' WHIP is 0.614. Mariano Rivera's WHIP from last year, where he was, statistically the best closer in the league? 0.665.

Granted, Hughes' sample size as a reliever is pretty small, but he shows know sign of slowing. At any rate, Hughes has already pitched more innings, total, this season than he did all of last season. He is, in other words, thriving, and he's still just turned 23 years old.


Melky Cabrera seems to have benefitted from sharing outfield duties with Brett Gardner; but perhaps most interesting is that while his .OBP is still a not-that-inspiring .336, 13 of his 32 RBI--a little less than half--have come in situations defined as close-and-late. Furthermore, 17 of his RBI have come in situations defined as high leverage. The Yankees already have eight walk-off wins on the young season and Cabera is directly responsible for three of them.

In other words, Cabrera might not be getting a whole lot of hits, but when he does, they sure as heck count.

Think that's not important?

The eight walk-offs are a huge reason the Yankees are still only one game back of Boston.



Then there's the other thing to consider:

By not trading for Johan Santana, the Yankees were able to get CC Sabathia in the off-season this year for just money and not prospects, put together the package that netted Nick Swisher--which given Xavier Nady's injury has thus been invaluable--and give us an idea as to what Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero might bring to the table.



So, a year and a half later, what have we learned?

• Patience is a virtue. Prospect development takes time and there are growing pains. This is why it's not right to automatically give up one of Hughes/Chamberlain for Halladay. Hughes/Chamberlain are both just 23 years old and have a lot of growing to do. With Chamberlain there is a legitimate concern as to his declining velocity , but if the Yankees can figure out the cause and solve that problem, they could end up with the potential that they drafted. At any rate, Halladay, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, two of the three of the Braves trifecta (Maddox/Smoltz/Glavine, I forget which) and plenty of other brand-name pitchers all struggled when they first came up. Unless your name is Tim Lincecum, developing an ace takes time.
  

• If you are a GM, don't overplay your hand. The Yankees and Red Sox played it perfectly and ultimatley got Johan Santana out of the American League. They now only have to face him in interleague play and/or the World Series, and in 2009 it would take a miracle to get the Mets to the World Series. Not saying that it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
  

• You can't judge a trade or non-trade based on one year alone. Right now it looks like the Twins got really nothing in the trade except a speedy centerfielder that robs Alex Rodriguez of grand slams, but one can take two things from this: a) the other prospects (may) still be developing, and b) the Mets don't really have much of a farm system. Right now the Mets can't be considered really major players in the Halladay sweepstakes because they simply don't have the farm system to get it done.

• Ultimately, we won't know for another six or seven years as to whether or not the trade should have been made, but what this can do is it can show the type of parameters to consider when talking about Halladay. What is the team willing to give up, and what will it get in return? If not this year, what about next?
  

Travelling Halladay?

The big news this morning is the rumor that the Blue Jays appear to be shopping Roy Halladay--and that they're willing to deal within the AL East.

I have seen trade proposals ranging from Hughes, Romine, Jackson and Montero to Canó, Hughes and Jackson...on and on. I've even seeing a frightening number of proposals that would also have the Yankees taking on Vernon Wells' contract--which may easily be one of the five worst in all of baseball.

If I am the Yankees I stay far, far away from a Halladay trade.

Remember, this team also stayed away from trading for Santana, and while it's too soon to tell for sure if the non-trade worked, the non-trade did allow the team to sign Sabathia and Burnett in the off-season.

Nevermind a very clear lesson learned: if a team is willing to trade someone within their own division, it likely means that they know something about that player that you don't.

At the very least, Halladay would cost the Yankees one of Hughes or Joba, Melancon and probably Montero, too.

You can't predict the future, sure, but this is simply way too much to give up for a starter on the other side of thirty and coming off of a groin injury.

If the Yankees were to sign Halladay as a free agent, it'd be an entirely different story, but as far as trades go, I don't touch this one.

Baseball on the Fourth of July

The spot is perfect.

Dangerous, sure, but we're humans. We sacrifice safety and comfort for bright lights and big noises, all in the name of celebration.

We are Americans, after all. We always find a way.


****

On the mound, starting for the Yankees today, is not an American but a Taiwanese. Chien Ming Wang.

It's no secret how he's struggled all season.

His first three starts were so horrendous the Yankees placed him on the disabled list, even though there were questions about whether or not he was really hurt.

He came off the disabled list again, but slowly, he has begun to look more and more respectable.

The last time he pitched, last Sunday, nearly halfway into the season and against a depleted Mets line up, Wang finally picked up a win.

It wasn't pretty, but the five-and-a-third innings and only two runs given up were a season best.

We're Americans. We like our progress.


****

It's the top of a hill made up of construction rubble; a block east of the West Side Highway it affords us a perfect view of the Hudson River and the sunset over New Jersey.

It's not safe.

Not even a little.

There is a steep climb, full of loosed rocks and sharp weeds, to get to the top, and then, once there, there is a steep drop off into a construction pit. Put simply: take too big a step forward, and you're dead.

Still, this is the best spot we can find, an hour before it's supposed to start.

The West Side Highway is completely blocked off and everything else is too low.

We marvel at our ingenuity in finding the spots.

We're not all Americans; we speak to each other not just in English but in Spanish and Polish and Hebrew; but we are all in America, and on today, that is all that matters.


****

Wang is not an American, but he plays for an American team.

Today, the Fourth of July, an American team is facing a Toronto team.

The Yankees have to win today, it's tempting to think, because there would be something inherently wrong about a Canadian team beating an American team on Independence Day.

Nothing personal against Canada, but today is America's day. It's not that I'm uppity or anything, but Canada had their celebration three days ago.

Today, it's our turn.


****

There are only a few of us on the hill at first, but then people see us, and they follow.

More and more people climb the hill.

Some climb it too fast; some sit all the way over the edge; one has sushi and a Blue Moon.


****

Before the game starts I tell Brent that I don't expect the Yankees to win, so I'll enjoy the game for the sake of enjoying the game.

Brent nods.

Again, it's nothing personal.

Roy Halladay is that good of a starter.

Chien Ming Wang has, this season, been that bad.

I never stop to consider how the two are on divergent paths.

Wang has been getting better. Stronger. More efficient. Halladay has only just come off the DL and struggled in his first game back.

As John Sterling would say, "You can't predict baseball."

****

While we wait we make friends with the others that have gathered on the hill.

We laugh about the danger, about the illegality of what we are doing.

We act like idiots and then proceed to admit that no, we have not actually been drinking.

Neither, we are somewhat shocked to hear, has anyone else.

It's like my brother told me via AIM two nights ago: Fireworks, then alcohol.


****

It's easy enough to tell it's the Fourth at the Stadium: an actual band performing the National Anthem; a reading of Lou Gehrig's farewell address that has lost none of its potency; Ronan Tynan singing "God Bless America"...

...You don't see these things every day.

Another thing you don't see every day: Alex Rodriguez knocking in a two-out base hit with a runner in scoring position to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first. It's not a knock on Alex Rodriguez. The entire team has struggled here this year.

The lead is short lived, but that doesn't matter so much.

The Yankees drew first blood.

The Yankees showed, in the very first inning, that they could hit and score off of Roy Halladay.

He would have to be that much better, if he wanted to win.

****

Five minutes before the fireworks are supposed to start, an undercover cop makes himself known.

"This is a Construction Site. Private property. If you don't want to be arrested, get off the hill now."

He is alone.

We move slowly. We drag it out like a 12-pitch at bat or a 22-inning baseball game.

We do not go quietly into that good night.


****

Somehow, some way, the Yankees get to the sixth inning with a 3-2 lead.

Wang is not just pitching well; he's pitching the best we've seen him this season.

It's the sixth inning and he's only thrown 58 pitches. Both Brent and I want to talk about it, but we won't. We're baseball fans, and superstition runs deep in our blood.

On this day, however, even thinking about it seems to be bad luck.

A single. Then a home run. A 3-2 lead is now a 4-3 deficit and it gets worse when Jorge Posada motions to the dugout, sending Dave Eiland back and bringing out Joe Girardi and the trainer.

It doesn't matter how badly Wang is hurt; that he's hurt is bad enough. It disrupts the flow of the team. Already the speculation begins: what about Wang's next start? Do you take Hughes out of the bullpen? Do you dare to disrupt a bullpen that since the 1st of June has a 2.35 ERA and a .179 BAA? You can't.


****

The undercover cop is soon backed up by a squad of uniformed cops.

I feel like I am in a Law and Order episode, in the very beginning, just minding my own business before all hell breaks loose.

It doesn't.

Not tonight.

We walk slowly downhill. Biding our time.

Then the fireworks start.

We stop. We stop, we turn, and we watch.

The police don't bother us any more.


****

The atmosphere that escapes the Stadium once Wang leaves with the injury is slow to build up again.

It will reach a certain point, and then, like clockwork, Robinson Cano comes up to bat and does something to record the final out of the inning.

This is how the game gets to extra innings.

Sure, scoreless innings from Brian Bruney, Mariano Rivera, Phil Coke and Brett Tomko all help, but it's the failure of Cano's bat that keeps the game going, even as the July sun beats down on us, as some decide they've had enough and leave, even as it comes down to one more pitcher left in the bullpen.


****

The fireworks dazzle.

It's a feast of light, of color and of sound.

"You know," Brent says, "This is what we should do with our firepower. Not blow up other people, but put on displays like this."

I wonder if, when the Ancient Chinese developed fireworks, if they had the same effect on those that saw them.

We are humans. We like bright sights and booming sounds.


****

It ends with Jorge Posada.

Jorge Posada, in the 12th inning, when it's gone from being high drama to please-for-the-love-of-America-end-this-game-because-I'm-hungry.

Is it fitting that Posada ends the game?

He doesn't have the mythical status of Derek Jeter, who doesn't come to bat in the evening; nor does it have the clutchy-mc-clutchness that Melky Cabrera's crafted for himself; nor the redemption that a Robinson Cano hit would bring; nor the long-overdue-ness that a walk-off Mark Teixeira blast would have; nor the grittyguttyness of Brett Gardner.

It is, instead, one of the guys just doing his thing.

Doing his job and doing it well.

That's American.

So's the pie that comes afterward--a fake-out from Joba Chamberlain and then BOOM! from AJ Burnett.

Triumph on the Fourth--that's America, too.*

****

"You know," Brent says, as we make our way east from the Hudson, "baseball, fireworks...we really are the luckiest people on the face of the earth."

"Yeah," I say, "We are."



*The Declaration wasn't actually signed on the fourth. It was made on the 2nd and most didn't sign it until the 19th. But, as in most all of history, such trivialities are minor details.