Triple the pleasure, triple the fun

[I will do a separate post detailing the umpiring or lack thereof in the morning. For the moment, let the Yankees' win in spite of the umpires speak for itself.]

For mere humans, starting a Major League baseball game on three days' rest is asking for disaster.

For one Carsten Charles Sabathia, starting on three days' rest is just another way to earn his paycheck.

We, lesser men and women, can only marvel as Sabathia is pictured in the dugout, yawning during the Yankees' at-bats.

This, of course, would be the best spot to mention how Scott Kazmir took forever between pitches, never looked quite comfortable and flirted with disaster the entire night. We'll get to the Yankee offense in a moment.

For now, Sabathia.

The Yankees' ace--and if he has not yet earned that moniker, he never will--was so good that he was still throwing mid nineties when his pitch count was roughly equal to that.

Sabathia was so good that his line is deceptive. He struck out five, but this has more to do with the fact that Sabathia was consistently getting outs early in the count--he walked just two through eight innings.

The last time the Yankees asked a starter to go on three days' rest in the postseason was Chien Ming Wang in 2007 and it didn't work out so well--the Yankees were eliminated that game.

That, in my mind, is all you need to know. In 2007, pre-foot-that-led-to-shoulder injury, Wang was a very good pitcher.

Sabathia, however, is an ace.

Aces do heroic things.

In the grand scheme of things, pitching a baseball game is hardly worthy of comment, but for us Yankee fans, tonight was heroism. Pure and simple.



Of course, if one starts talking heroes, one will have to bring Alex Rodriguez into the discussion.

Rodriguez hasn't just shattered the notion of postseason demons; he's gone way past obliterating them into ridiculous, other-worldly, and now...well, profound.

Rodriguez keeps asserting that nothing profound has happened, and that he's just in a good place, but, really, what he's done this October is, itself, profound.

There's no other way to describe it than that. Profound.


If the ALCS was over today, and you had a vote for the MVP, do you give it to Sabathia or Rodriguez, who has not only exceeded this round, but is perhaps the reason the Yankees made it this far in the first place?

It's a tough call.



While you're busy oggling Sabathia's and Rodriguez's performances (and oggle you should), don't forget the production the Yankees received tonight from one Melky Cabrera.

Cabrera had two RBI early that put the Yankees up 3-0, and then two more late, after the game had reached the 'pouring-it-on' stage.

Many have remarked that the Yankees' bottom of the order is not producing, but Cabrera is batting .353 in the postseason.

If we expect an all star, Cabrera will disappoint, but if we expect a number nine hitter who stands a reasonable shot of getting on base as anyone, we ought to be well satisfied.


There are rumors that Cabrera repeated a certain phrase that he uttered after hitting for the cycle, but these are thus far unsubstantiated and I do not have DVR.



The Yankees now have a 3-1 series lead and will have their chance to close it out on Thursday. They needed to take at least one game in Anaheim and they've done that; now they're out for Angel blood.

"This New Guy We Got"

When you can get 45,000+ fans all chanting your name in a LCS in your first year in New York, you're obviously doing something right.

CC's something?

8 innings,
4 hits
1 run
1 walk
7 strikeouts.

Yeah, I don't know about you, but I'd say that new guy did pretty well for himself.

Sabathia and the Yankees were also helped by some pretty poor fundamental play by the Angels--the one play we'll remember years from now was a Luis Castillo-esque dropped pop up (well, not so much dropped as no one bothered to try to catch it) by Eric Aybar that directly led to the Yankees 2nd run in the first.

The two runs were all that the Yankees--and Sabathia--would need.

Sabathia was helped by solid fundamental play and good defense on the part of his team, and the Yankees simply outplayed the Angels.

The Yankees did not get a ton of offense, but they had enough to take advantage of the Angels' misplay. Tonight was only the second time ever there had been a game at the new Yankee Stadium without a home run, but the Yankees were able to tack on the two insurance runs to provide the extra cushion everyone likes so much.

Maybe it has something to do with the cold...New York is a cold weather city, after all...then again, when one considers the way Robinson Canó looked more like a ninja than a baseball player, maybe not.

The best moment of levity came late in the game, when FOX aired a conversation between Joe Girardi and Tim McClelland, the home plate umpire, as Girardi went to bring in Mariano Rivera. Rivera, who has more postseason saves than anyone else in history. You may have heard of him. It went something like this:

Girardi: We're bringing Rivera.
McClelland: Who?
Girardi: This new guy we got.
McClelland: Up from AAA?


Well, for what it's worth, that real new guy, CC, was worth every single cent tonight.

Is it too early to start talking about the postseason rotation?

Ask someone what the Yankees' biggest concerns are at the moment, and he or she might be hard pressed to answer. After all, when your team has the best record in the league and a 6.5 game lead in the division race, it's hard to find areas to complain.

Still, there will be those who say that AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain are worrisome, and that certain relievers in the bullpen can utterly not be trusted.

So, the questions will inevitably arise, how will the Yankees construct their postseason rotation?

No, the Yankees have not made the postseason yet, but we are fast approaching a point where if the Yankees do not make the playoffs, even as a wild card team, it would be a collapse of historic proportions. Thus, it does not seem a stretch to address this issue.

Right now, the Yankees' rotation comprises of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre.

In the postseason, barring injury, you need four starters--so we can drop mighty mighty Mitre off the list for right now.

Thus, the question becomes, how do you organize the remaining four, and here the issue isn't so much the game one starter (Sabathia) or the game four starter (if needed) (Chamberlain). The issue is, as it was in 2007, who starts game two.

For most of this season, AJ Burnett has easily been the Yankees' #2 starter, but of late he has a couple of things working against him: he hasn't won in a month, and he's never pitched in a postseason game.

For me, at least, the second issue is more pressing than the first. Yes, Burnett hasn't won in a month, but he has been unlucky in some of those starts--like the fifteen inning game against Beckett, and the game he pitched in Oakland where he surrendered only three runs but the Yankees couldn't muster anything against Brett Tomko. His ERA for this time is over 6.00, but two absolutley horrid starts--in Chicago and Boston--are perhaps inflating it further. Of course, Burnett had a poor outing last night, so that doesn't do him any favors.

Still, the lack of postseason experience is a concern, especially if it follows Sabathia immediately--Sabathia's postseason number in 2007 and 2008 are not very good (though 2008 may perhaps be attributed to his pitching on three days' rest multiple times that September).

Pettitte as the number two starter would give the Yankees someone with a lot of postseason experience, and, since the All Star break, no pitcher has been better for the Yankees. Well, no starter, anyway (I'm looking at you, Mo Rivera). Last season, Pettitte pitched the second half hurt and put up some not very good numbers, but this season, well, on Monday Pettitte came within 7 outs of a perfect game.

A lot, however, can change between September 2nd and October 1st. In that time, Burnett could put it all together and Pettitte could fall apart, and in that case the decision would become even harder.

Still, if constructing your postseason rotation is your biggest concern, you're probably in a pretty good place.

****

On another note entirely, make sure you check out some great baseball travel posts from WFAN's Mike McCann. He's gone and visited numerous stadia at all levels--worth a gander if you like doing ballpark tours/trips.

Pettitte takes Perfecto into the 7th (Postgame Notes 31 August 2009)

Throughout his career, Andy Pettitte has been known as a second half pitcher.

That was never more apparent than it was tonight, where Pettitte pitched eight two-hit innings of baseball--he took a perfect game into two outs in the seventh and lost it only when Jerry Hairston Jr did his best Bill Buckner impression at third, filling in for Alex Rodriguez.

The Yankees scored their own five runs--it's a road game, so of course Swisher had a home run and was a triple away from the cycle--but the story of the game is easily Pettitte.

Pettitte was so good that even when he did lose the perfect game and the no-hitter (lost on a clean single), and the game was only 2-0 at the time, Pettitte still got himself out of the inning without allowing a run. Pettitte would allow a lead-off home run to Melvin Mora, but by that time the Yankees were leading by five.

Pettitte's ERA since the all-star break is 2.56--and despite CC Sabathia having lost only one August game in the past two seasons, one could make the argument right now that Pettitte is pitching better than anyone else on the Yankees' staff.

In the end, tonight's game is exactly what should have happened when the team with the league's best record plays one of the cellar-dwellers: Good pitching, enough offense and the other team never really has a chance.

(For what it's worth, though, Brian Bruney has quite a bit of work to do to if he really really wants to be on that postseason roster...)

Mitre and Gaudin combine to one-hit White Sox (Postgame Notes 29 August 2009)

You can be forgiven if, at the outset, you thought that today's Contreras-Mitre match up would be one long and non-fun game to sit through.

Jose Contreras certainly kept up his part of the bargain--unable to make it even through the fourth inning as the Yankees singled and doubled him to death.

Sergio Mitre, on the other hand, pitched well.

Not well-for-a-five-starter or well-for-someone-that-has-an-awfully-high-WHIP or passably good, but well.

Very, very well.

Through six and a third innings, Mitre gave up only one hit--a scorching double to Jim Thome (if you're going to give up a hit might as well be to a guy that's headed to Cooperstown)--and, just as importantly, walked only one.

Had he not been hit in the elbow with a come-back-line-drive-thingie, Mitre would have likely pitched the seventh, probably the eighth and possibly even the ninth--easily his best performance since 2006.

Coming on in relief, Chad Gaudin was also excellent--not allowing a single hit to the White Sox over the rest of the game.

On the flip side, the Yankees scored four runs in the second, four in the fourth, and then two more later on, and--unusual, perhaps for this team--the only home run was an Alex Rodriguez solo home run in the later innings.

Robinson Canó now has three hits with runners in scoring position since last night--a very rare feat for him this season.

Just as important, he made a stellar defensive play in the sixth inning--and he has played solid defense all season.

The Yankees have now assured themselves of their 14th straight season at .500 or better--even if they go winless the rest of the season (in which case they'd have some more serious problems).

Thanks, Brian Cashman

AJ Burnett takes a one-hitter into the eighth on Friday--and the only hit was the very first batter of the game, a ball that possibly should have been caught.

CC Sabathia takes a no-hitter into the sixth on Saturday.

Mark Teixeira breaks a 2-2 tie with a moonshot on Sunday.

Eric Hinske would have won Friday's game had it not been for a spectacular catch by JD Drew.

*****

Some more awesomeness from the weekend:

The Yankees trailed in three half-innings all weekend. They went on to at least tie the game in the next half-inning each time.

Between Friday and Sunday, the Red Sox scored two runs. Two runs on one swing. Say what you want about Boston's offense, but Yankee pitching has to be at least somewhat responsible for this.

Yankee relief pitching allowed four runs in two games--two on one swing, and the other two in the ninth inning of a blowout game, using a pitcher with an ERA so high that it actually went down when the runs scored.

Yankee starting pitching allowed four runs over the sweep of the four game series. All four were in the first game.

The Yankees right now have their fourth seven-game winning streak of the season.

Starting Pitching For The Win (no, really)

The Yankees, at the present moment, easily have the best offense in all of baseball. They lead in home runs, OBP, total bases, OPS and walks, and are on pace to score over 100 more runs than last year. Scoring 1000 runs looks unlikely at this point, but it is not entirely out of the question.

For all that the offense has done, however, it's not the reason that Yankee fans are getting excited about this autumn.

A great offense can help you get to October, but, as the Yankees have seen first hand in recent years, it won't help you stay there.

The difference this year, as it is in any year in which a team is a serious contender, is the pitching.

Just think about this:

In 2008, the Yankees had games started by Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte, sure, but then also Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Chien Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Dan Giese, Darrell Rasner, Sidney Ponson, Alfredo Aceves, Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano (and probably others I can't remember).

In 2009, thus far, the Yankees have had games started by CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, and then, only in the fifth spot do you see the variation of Chien Ming Wang, Phil Hughes and Sergio Mitre.

It's not just that the quality of pitching has been better this season, but it's also been more consistent. With the exception of Wang, starters are making start after start and, even if they struggle, still manage to find a way to keep the Yankees in the game.''

Since the All Star break, every Yankee starter has gone at least five innings, and every starter not named Sergio Mitre has gone six. Most have gone seven innings, and while the Yankees are 10-1, they are probably one 0-2 pitch away from 11-0.

It's not a coincidence.

Sure, the Yankee bullpen has been pretty solid, especially at the back end, but the caveat here is that the bullpen doesn't really matter if the starting pitcher can't do his job.

What's Another Walk Off? (Postgame Notes 20 July 2009)

Walk off hits for the Yankees this season:

Melky Cabrera (3)
Alex Rodriguez (1)
Jorge Posada (2)
Johnny Damon (1)
Luis Castillo (1)
Hideki Matsui (1)

Nine walk off wins this season and we're in the middle of July.

All of last season, the Yankees had nine walk-off wins.

There's something in the air this season. There's got to be. The Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games.

In the past four games the Yankees have scored only 11 runs--and this at the New Yankee Stadium in the middle of summer.

The Yankees are also 4-0 in that time, which includes a sweep of the first-place Tigers. Some decent pitching--starting and bullpen, indeed, and Sergio Mitre can worry about being Sergio Mitre and not any sort of stopper.


Sure the Yankees have issues, like that Chien Ming Wang felt pain in his shoulder while playing catch today and is now shut down until Friday, but walk off wins--not including ones won on pop-ups--have a way of making those worries disappear.

At least, that is, until the next game.


At any rate, the last time the Yankees were this many games above .500 was the last day of the 2007 season.

It's good to be there again.

The Kids Are All Right (Postgame Notes 19 July 2009)

Perhaps because it was Old Timer's Day, the ghosts of Yankee Stadium(s) decided that something special would have to happen today.

It wasn't anything that will enter record books or baseball lore, but Joba Chamberlain's six-and-two-thirds innings pitched, while surrendering only one run on a solo home run is notable in its own right given Chamberlain's recent struggles.

It seems as though the nine days' rest did him good--whereas AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia were too strong, Chamberlain finally appeared strong enough, throwing 107 pitches, and certainly efficiently enough to earn the designation of a quality start.

It's a good thing Chamberlain was on his game, because like Justin Verlander before him, the Tigers' Edwin Jackson was throwing gas, too.

The difference was simply that while Chamberlain made only one mistake pitch, Jackson made two, and he made them to guys named Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.

The three-game sweep of the Tigers is not just the best possible way to come out of the All Star Break, but winning each game by a close and low-scoring margin shows that the Yankees do not need offensive shootouts to win games.

Everything, as always, comes back to pitching.

The Joba Theory--Explained and Expanded

Many of you saw the post I wrote last night, in which, with the help of a couple of Mets fans, I arrived at a very, very simple conclusion for the pitching woes of Joba Chamberlain.

Now that I've had a night to sleep on it, I thought I'd go and expand it, mention some caveats and correct some errors on my part, as well as provide you with some raw data--so if you'd like, you can draw your own conclusion.

The "Joba theory", as I'm callling it (feel free to call it whatever you want) centers around one basic premise: the pitching woes of Joba Chamberlain may be at least partly, if not wholly, attributed to the fact that, combining college and minor league performances, Chamberlain has not built up the proper arm strength to be a starter over the long haul.

Reduced endurance/stamina can be a cause of reduced arm strength, which in turns means reduced velocity, more hittable pitches, more pitches thrown and shorter outings.

That's just the physical aspect of it--there's also something to be said for the psychological aspect that without adequate time in the minor leagues, pitchers who experience sudden success at the major league level may not know how to handle the situation when they first begin to struggle. That, would, however, be over-reaching. Only a player and his psychiatrist/psychologist/whomever knows what's really going through his mind.

I am digressing.

Back to the theory at-large.

If I were to make a statement about what the theory is, without using the words "Joba" or "Chamberlain", it would be thus:

While long stints in the minor league do not guarantee a pitcher success, not pitching enough, either in the minors or in a combination of college ball and the minor leagues, can actively work against a pitcher's development.

This is what I wrote last night re: Joba

If you look here, you can see Chamberlain's innings totals for both his time in Nebraska and his time with the Yankees.

What do you notice?

Chamberlain did not even pitch 100 innings in the minor leagues; at Nebraska he did not reach 120 innings.

This season, he's already logged 89 innings--and if we keep the Verducci Effect (the idea that excess increases in innings pitched from year to year substantially increases injury risk) in mind, he probably won't top 130 IP--perhaps 140 if the Yankees are feeling like living on the edge with a pitcher who sustained a can't-be-overlooked shoulder injury last season.

Now, I did leave out the winter ball that Chamberlain pitched in 2006. While that does bump his 2006 innings total over 100 innings, you are still left with Chamberlain having pitched two years of college ball and one year in the minor leagues.

How does that compare with other?

Take a look at the chart I created here (it's in PDF form).

Now, some notes and observations:

• The pitchers selected are, for the most part, considered either the #1 or #2 pitcher on their team, are no longer rookies (I believe Gallardo is an exception due to last year's injury) and are either considered young or in their prime--ie no Randy Johnson or John Smoltz or Andy Pettitte, all of whom are on the obvious downswing of their careers.

• The first column is innings pitched in the minors before a pitcher's first call up; second is whether or not the pitcher was sent back down; third is total innings in the minors and fourth is the number of years in the minors.
  

• I included the innings pitched totals for college ball for Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander because of the low number of innings they pitched in the minor leagues. Both Lincecum and Verlander pitched three years of college ball--not Joba's two--and pitched over 100 innings in each season. It's not the minor leagues, but it would certainly contribute to stamina.

• Aside from Verlander and Lincecum, only Mark Buehrle (out of 20 pretty randomly chosen pitchers) pitched less than three years in the minor leagues before their first call up. Six pitchers not named Verlander or Lincecum pitched between 200 and 300 innings, with Cole Hamels at the low end and Johan Santana at the high end (at 294). Twelve pitched at least 300 innings before their first call up.

• You can guess a lot at those who went back down to the minors--shorter stints likely indicate rehab for an injury, while longer stints may reflect ineffectiveness or else that a team wanted to further develop a pitcher.

• If we want to establish a baseline for what is most common--ie, the rule and not the exception--it'd seem to be three seasons in the minors (with a potential call up to the majors in the third) and 200 innings pitched. Even if you make the argument--and you can--that the combination of Joba's college innings and one year in the minors puts him over the 200 IP mark, he's still missing a year. He's not the only pitcher to have ever shot through all four levels of the minor league system in one year, but such things are an exception, not a rule, and sooner or later the law of averages tends to catch up.

• Twenty pitchers, even twenty name-brand pitchers, is still of course far too small of a sample size, so I'll work on expanding it. Theoretically. If there's a pitcher you would like to test, it's pretty simple--go to the Baseball Cube, type in the pitcher's name, and look at the inning pitched in the minor leagues. Have fun! Ones you might consider trying, for the hell of it: Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Chris Carpenter, Ben Sheets, Josh Beckett, Josh Johnson, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, et al. Stay away from rookies who may be riding beginner's luck.

• Relievers don't work here, either. Since relievers by their very nature don't pitch as many innings, the endurance they need to build is not as important as brute arm strength: Can you throw it 100 mph? Can you locate it vaguely close to the strike zone? Can you make believe it's got movement? Congratulations, there's team waiting to sign you right now! Starting pitching is a much different thing.

This is, of course, just a theory.

There are certainly holes, exceptions that don't fit and other issues to consider--like, perhaps, whether or not a pitcher has a history of arm injuries--but it does fit the model of Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the best.

Unfortunately, merely knowing what the problem is won't solve it--and with Chamberlain, that's a whole, other impossible-to-answer question.

Breaking Down the Yankees for the Second Half--The Rotation

So the All Star Game is officially over--and we can thus consider ourselves in the second half.

This is where it gets fun.

All of those days players got rested in the first half? Well, now they have to play. Now the pennant races start to heat up, and every move a team makes, be it a trade, a free agent signing or simply bringing someone up from AAA has even more added meaning.

What do we expect from the Yankees?

I'm going to do a series of posts addressing this, because there's so much to say that having it all in one post would a) kill your eyes and mine, and b) give me carpal tunnel at the age of 23.

So for now, I'm going to start with the starting rotation, because everything depends on the success and/or failure of these guys.

The Rotation

This is the biggest problem area for the Yankees, which is strange to say given how much was spent in the off-season to improve it.

The truth is, however, that outside of AJ Burnett's most recent string of domination, no one has emerged as an ace in the way that Mike Mussina did last year.

CC Sabathia and Burnett have been fairly reliable--although Sabathia's peripherals, the worst they've been since 2005 are a source of concern--but Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain have been inefficient at best and the fifth starter is, right now, non-existent.


CC Sabathia

Last time out, in Anaheim, Sabathia's ridiculously low road BABIP (batting average on balls in play) caught up to him. If you look here, you'll see that his strikeouts are down, walks are up and K/BB ratio is the worst it's been since 2005.

In the second half the Yankees, theoretically, should have enough starting pitching depth that Sabathia doesn't have to pull a stunt like he did with Milwaukee at the end of 2008, but he will have to be better. The peripheral stats are something that more and more seem to be noticing, and the Yankees will need to decide how much of it has to do with moving to the AL East and how much has some other, undiagnosed cause, and thus, how concerned they need to be.

Sabathia is the biggest pitching investment the Yankees have made since, well, Pavano and Igawa, so expect that the Yankees will do everything possible to make sure he is right.


AJ Burnett

Burnett got off to a very rocky start, and found no love from the fans after, well, you-know-what-ing the bed in two starts in Boston. He was in desperate need of a decent start against Johan Santana of the Mets, and it is entirely possible that his ultimate turning point in the season came when he had the bases loaded, none out, and got out of the inning without giving up a run.

Since then, AJ has really been the Yankee ace. He has faced the Mets, Marlins, Mets, Jays and Twins in that time span and has not given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts.

His last pre-break start, however, was not so much dominant as it was getting lucky and delivering the right pitch to escape jam after jam. In the words of, I think, the Associated Press, he had nothing, but still found a way to win.

If there's one thing the Yankees would probably ask a genie to do, if such genies existed, it would be to reduce Burnett's walk total--which leads the league.

Against teams with weak offenses, like the Mets, the walks don't hurt as much because no one ever makes you pay, but against stronger offenses, like Boston, the walks are killer. Burnett's always had control issues--he walked nine when he pitched a no-hitter for the Florida Marlins--but the Yankees aren't paying him $88 million over five years so that he can dazzle you with spectacularly wild pitches.


Andy Pettitte

Here's where things begin to get dicey. While Sabathia and Burnett have some issues, they are, for the most part, giving the Yankees enough length to keep the team in the game and not overexpose the bullpen.

Pettitte and Chamberlain? It's a little different.


Pettitte actually started the season strong, pitching into the sixth inning (and often beyond) in each of his first nine starts. That efficiency hasn't lasted, and his ERA has jumped from under 3.00 at the end of April to nearly 5.00 now.

The easiest way to explain it is that it looks as though Pettitte's body is having trouble keeping up with the grind of pitching every five days--as is what happens when most pitchers not named Moyer or Paige reach their later 30s.

Pettitte's first start after the break will be very telling--if the extra rest seems to have helped him, the Yankees could possibly consider skipping a start or two of his down the stretch to give him some extra breathing room (but somehow I doubt they will). If, however, he still continues to struggle in his next two or three starts, the Yankees will need to address whether or not it really is beneficial to the team to have him pitching in the rotation. If the Yankees, by some miracle, acquire someone like Halladay (see my previous post), or if Chien Ming Wang miraculously regains his form (also unlikely), then Pettitte's trending ineffectiveness is easier to bear.


Joba Chamberlain

Ah. Well. Here we go. The Wunderkind of 2007 and pre-injury 2008 has struggled in 2009.

Everyone's trying to figure out the root cause of the struggle, if it's psychological or physical or mechanical, and watching everyone go at it like a rat race would be incredibly amusing if the consequences weren't so large.

Each cause of his struggle has different results: if it's mechanical, this would be the easiest to fix--the Yankees could try to fix him up here or send him to AAA to sort it out, and if Joba's as good a pitcher as he's supposed to be, he'll be a quick study. If, however, it was as simple as this one would have seen improvement already.

The real answer is that the root cause is probably more complex, a combination of perhaps a nagging shoulder, an inexplicable fear of strike three, and maybe, since we're making this like a soup here, you can throw in some could-be-conditioned-better for extra spice. Like paprika.

Anyway, what the Yankees need, and need almost immediately, is to see if there's any indication that they can get Joba right, or at least that they can get Joba to pitch past the fifth inning. If they can, great. If they can't, the argument to turn him into a Canadian becomes all that stronger.

I think--and this is just opinion here--that the Yankees still see quite a bit of potential in Chamberlain. He is, after all, only 23, and he has shown that, when right, he can touch triple digits in the seventh inning.

The talent's there. The Yankees have to figure out how to access it.


The Fifth Starter

At this point, you just feel bad for Chien Ming Wang. He wasn't quite right in Spring Training, but it went ignored (because hey, it's Spring Training), and he imploded in the beginning of the year. He had a long and largely inefficient road back, but finally, finally looked something like the Chien Ming Wang of old while dueling Roy Halladay on July 4th--before he promptly strained his shoulder.

I don't believe in coincidences, so the fact that Wang got hurt while Halladay was starting for the Jays has to be considered some sort of divine sign, no?

Anyway.

There are those that would prefer to see Hughes or Aceves take the fifth spot, instead of Sergio Mitre and whomever the Yankees end up trading for (and they probably will), but there are problems with each.

Hughes, first of all, is not stretched out, and as I detailed in a recent post, the process of stretching him out, at this point in the season, might simply just take too long and create more problems for the Yankees and their bullpen than the ones it solves.

Aceves could be a perfectly competent starter, but when he's removed from the bullpen, the bullpen seems to fall apart. I'm not sure it's him, personally--although you have to consider the eerie similarity between his numbers and Mariano's of 1996 (his ERA has risen from 2.49 from 2.02 after his spot start, but if he stays in the bullpen it will likely come down again)--but I think there's a case to be made that his value lies in since he can pitch so many innings, the short relievers pitch less. The less the non-Mo short relievers pitch, the more they remain hidden, and the more they become a strength.

All we really know about this spot is that the next time it comes round it's probably Sergio Mitre's shot--but after that, who knows?

Obviously, the sooner the Yankees figure something out for the long term, the better, but don't be surprised if one good Mitre start spells another, and the Yankees try to recapture the ghost of Aaron Small circa late summer 2005.

Composure is awesome...when you have it.

Sometimes, as a pitcher, you don't actually pitch all that badly, but your defense plays, well, shoddy baseball.

Last night was a rare instance in which both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter committed errors; although these errors did not directly lead to Anaheim Los Angeles runs, they did continue the innings for Angels' bats and ultimately culminated in two three-run home runs.

***

A few days ago I heard someone mention that the unearned runs a pitcher gives up should be used as a measuring stick more often. After all, unearned runs do more than just tell you the number of runs that don't contribute to ERA; unearned runs tell one about a pitcher's ability to remain unshaken and not get unnerved when his defense falters behind him.

So, how do Yankee pitchers stack up?

It shouldn't be much of a surprise that the best Yankees' pitchers also have the fewest unearned runs, and that the number of UR, for the most part, increases based on spot in the pitching rotation:

CC Sabathia: 53 runs, 50 earned = 3 unearned runs.
AJ Burnett: 48 runs, 45 earned = 3 unearned runs.
Andy Pettitte: 58 runs, 52 earned = 6 unearned runs.
Joba Chamberlain 52 runs, 42 earned = 10 unearned runs.
Chien Ming Wang: 46 runs, 45 earned = 1 unearned run.

In this instance, given Wang's struggles this seasons, the one unearned run all season does say quite a bit--in other words, his struggles are all really on him, and that he really was getting hit that hard.

We can also look at relievers, in descending order of importance (however arbitrary):

Mariano Rivera: 11 runs, 10 earned = 1 unearned run.
Phil Hughes: 24 runs, 23 earned = 1 unearned run. (Also, how far he's come since BAL!)
Alfredo Aceves: 22 runs, 20 earned = 2 unearned runs.
Phil Coke: 16 runs, 13 earned = 3 unearned runs.
David Robertson: 26 runs, 24 earned = 2 unearned runs.
Brian Bruney: 9 runs, 9 earned = 0 unearned runs.


Now, the bullpen needs to be taken with the following caveats:

1) The runs do not account for inherited runners. Hence, Brian Bruney's numbers don't reflect the runners that were on base as a result of Jeter's error because those runners were already on base when Bruney came into the game.

2) Hughes and Aceves' higher run totals can be attributed to Hughes starting the season as a starter and Aceves' long relief stints. It is, of course, natural to think that the more innings one pitches, the more runs one will allow.


Also interesting is that Rivera's run total already equals his total for all of last season, which doesn't so much mean Rivera's having a poor season this year (he struggled early but has been his normal self for nearly two and a half months now), as it does emphasize how good he really was last season.


It's perhaps not that surprising that Joba Chamberlain has the highest total of unearned runs.

In most of his recent starts, he's pulled an '07 Mussina, nibbling and being afraid to throw strikes. Inefficient pitchers lull fielders; fielders that aren't "with it" will, of course, make more errors, and then a nibbling pitcher nibbles even more with runners on base.

It's kind of like the circle-of-nibbling (and it moves us all...to despair and hope...to faith and love... okay, okay I'll stop now)...

On the other hand, while Chamberlain may be struggling, it's nice to see Sabathia and Burnett pitching with the composure one expects of one's #1 and #2 starters...

Burnett, Yanks One-Hit Mets (Postgame Notes 27 June 2009)

I'm not sure if it was AJ Burnett dominating or the New York Mets trotting out a line up that would have a hard time beating some AAA teams; maybe a combination of both, but the Yankees one-hit the Mets tonight.

It always comes back to pitching, and tonight AJ Burnett was en pointe.

Maybe it's something to do with the Mets--he pitched shut out ball against them back on the 14th--but tonight, he dominated, striking out ten in seven and allowing just one hit. He did walk three, but giving the rest of his performance one can hardly complain.

As Bryan Hoch (@bryanhoch) pointed out on Twitter via another, right now, Brett Gardner has more hits (5) in this series than the Mets (4), and I'd like to add that Gardner had an 0-fer today.


To be fair, the Mets lineup has been utterly decimated by injuries, as it has all season, but one should consider that that team did take three of four from the St. Louis Cardinals, who are not, if a spectacular team, certainly not a bad one.


For the Yankee, the offense was not the same sort of spectacular it was on the 14th, but they scored one run on Nick Swisher's home run, and then added more later in the game, with four runs in the top of the sixth inning--and who knows, perhaps the long inning disrupted Burnett's tempo and his quest for a second career no-hitter, but then again, only giving up one hit is no room for complaint.

It was especially gratifying to see Jorge Posada hit a home run--he had a .219 average in June going into the game, and more importantly, to see him so in synch with Burnett.

Perhaps now the "who's better, Posada or Cervelli" debate can stop.

I love Cervelli, I do, but, I mean...really now.

Anyway, the Yankees are back to 10 games over .500 as they've won four straight, and with a win tomorrow (and with the Mets trotting out Livan Hernandez, anything is possible) they could revisit the high-water mark of the season.

Yanks Meet the Mess (Postgame Notes 26 June 2009)

Quietly, or perhaps not-so-quietly, it looks like the Yankees have begun to emerge from their June swoon.

In the past three games, the Yankees have scored at least eight runs...and, while these games weren't necessarily laughers, given the timing of the scoring, the wins still count.

Tonight, the Yankees did the type of things that a competitive team needs to do: pitch well, take advantage of the other team's miscues, and add a couple of tack on runs just for form's sake.

Let's break it down:

1) Pitch well...

CC Sabathia, apparently recovered from his biceps tendinitis, had a very good outing, allowing just three hits in seven innings. Had the Yankees not blown it open in the 8th, he would have come back out again.

Although he was no doubt the beneficiary of a very pitcher-friendly appeal umpire at first, Sabathia's performance was what the Yankees needed after Pettitte's struggles and thus the stretching of the bullpen last night.

While Sabathia may not have received the attention that the FA success stories of K-Rod and Raul Ibañez have, he is pitching up to the standards expected of an ace. His record doesn't reflect it as the Yankees haven't always scored on his behalf, but he is clearly giving the Yankees what they need.


2) Take advantage of the other team's miscues...

The New York Mets had three infielders commit an error in the 2nd inning, though, strangely, Luis Castillo didn't have any of them. Ok, bad joke aside, the Yankees turned the three errors into four runs, all with the names like Gardner (who had the game of his career, thus far, with five hits), Peña, Sabathia...(Sabathia is no automatic out).

With the early lead, the Yankees didn't falter. It's a good thing they got the lead, too, because after that inning the Yankees had only one baserunner until the seventh inning.


3) Score some tack on runs...

I don't know if the Yankees want to play mean and keep Mariano Rivera from getting his 500th save, but you can't really complain about the tack on runs.

Three runs can be erased with one swing. Seven can't. And with eight runs to work with, you have more than enough time to change pitchers if yours starts to struggle (thankfully, Tomko was excellent).

And, you know what, the tack on runs weren't useless.

They meant that CC didn't have to pitch the 8th, got the Yankees a comfortable lead, and let them rest Teixeira and A-Rod, if only for a half inning. Still, with a flu bug going around, any rest would likely be welcome.




AJ Burnett takes the mound tomorrow, but the real interesting pitching match up comes Sunday when Wang takes on Livan Hernandez.

Oh boy.

Yanks Get Early Lead, Hold Ground versus Fish (Postgame Notes 19 June 2009)

By the end of the third inning, the game felt like a blow out, even though it was only a four-run lead.

Still, that is what early hits--nine in the first three innings--can do for a team, especially one coming off of a performance where, let's face it, they were simply going through the motions against the league's worst team.

Once Angel Berroa and Andy Pettitte had back-to-back doubles in the second (yes, you read that right), however, the game was firmly in the Yankees' hands, and the only question would remain how Pettitte pitched.

Pettitte allowed three hits (including a solo HR) over seven innings, struck out seven and walked no one. It was one of his best starts this season, and came at a time when the Yankees needed an effective start.

Brian Bruney pitched an excellent eighth inning, which the Yankees really, really need, and Brett Tomko had a nice rebound outing in the ninth.

The one real blemish here was that the Yankees left 11 men on base, though some of this has to do with being in an NL park and losing both the DH and A-Rod's bat (as A-Rod will be taking the first two games off since he's slumping something awful), but I think the key here is that when the Yankees had to get the runs, in the beginning of the game, they did. Had the Marlins played a better game on their end, I'm not sure the Yankees' bats appear to get so lacksidasical at the end.

Derek Jeter is still limping a bit--I guess tomorrow we'll see if there are any lingering effects.


****

I'm headed to Citifield tomorrow with my friend Robin, who is a Mets fan. I'll get to see Johan (probably not that) up close and personal. I will actually be rooting for the Mets--because they're playing the Rays.

Looking at the Yankees on an Off Day

The Yankees have not only picked up the pace in the last few weeks; they've moved into a tie for first in the AL East.

Let's take a look at how they got there.

Starting Pitching

This has probably been the greatest improvement. The Yankees are 12-4 in their last sixteen games; in only two of the losses did they allow more than five runs. In six games, the opposition has been held to two runs or less and in 12 games the opposition has been held to four runs or less.

It's a far cry from the 15-5 and 22-4 blowouts of April.

Let's take a closer look.

• CC Sabathia: Has turned it on. He lost his last start, to Philadelphia, but this has more to do with Hamels pitching well than him pitching poorly. He beat Baltimore and Toronto, allowing a grand total of three runs in those games, and perhaps most importantly, win or loose he always seems good to throw eight innings, which helps to save a really taxed bullpen.

• Phil Hughes: Has decided he really wants to stay in the rotation, apparently. he had a couple rough starts, but got better and in his last start against Texas was fantastic. With the exception of the one start in Baltimore where everything came undone in the second, the most notable accomplishment for him has been the way he's bent, but not broken, with men on base. last season all of those men score. This season they don't. Phil's growing up.

• Joba Chamberlain: Seems to have figured out the first inning woes by throwing a simulated inning before the start of the game, but needs to work on efficiency. Not sure if Joba's last start was a result of his poor numbers against Texas or some leftover weakness from getting hit in the leg with a line drive; probably a combination of both. I am wholeheartedly against moving him to the bullpen since i think it would kill his arm, but he does need to become more efficient.

• AJ Burnett: Had a couple tough luck outings, with a loss against Halladay and then a no decision against Minnesota; gave up absolute bombs to Philadelphia, but yesterday, thank your deity(ies), was very good against the Rangers. 118 pitches in six innings is too many; but six shutout innings a team will take every time.

• Andy Pettitte: He's been Andy Pettitte-ish. He'll give up hits and occasional runs, but somehow, as if by magic, always keeps the team in the game. He's been perfectly cast as the team's fifth starter; not quite his role in Yankee teams of yesteryear, but he's doing exactly as the Yankees needed him to do, and he's still historically a better second half pitcher.

• Chien Ming Wang: Now pitching out of the bullpen despite not being a bullpen arm. The trouble is, if Hughes keeps pitching well Girardi will be in no hurry to remove him from the rotation. It's an odd problem to have: too much starting pitching and not enough bullpen.

The Offense

Let's see here.

Since the last off day, the Yankees have scored at least three runs every game but one--and that was Halladay's start. In their wins, the Yankees have scored five or more runs ten times.

Even while missing Nady and Posada, and for most intents and purposes, Swisher, the offense is working like a $200 million team.

• Derek Jeter: Seems to have slowed his decline just enough. He's never hit for a whole ton of power, but seems much improved in that department over last season. He's still, perhaps, not entirely suited for the lead off role, but it's drastially reducing the team's GIDP that makes it all worthwhile.

• Johnny Damon: Has cooled off a little bit, but since he had basically been carrying the team for a while now, he's allowed. The right porch at the Stadium suits him perfectly and has turned him into a legitimate power threat at home.

• Mark Teixeira: There aren't really words to describe how awesome he's been since A-Rod has come back and, well, offered him protection in the line up. He's got twelve home runs already in May and is now in the league lead in that department. We knew he'd heat up in May with the warmer weather...but I'm not sure anyone expected this.

• Alex Rodriguez: Still has more home runs than singles and the scary thing (for other teams) is that his timing, while better, is still not all the way there. Now, if he had some serious protection in the line up--Matsui and Canó can be too streaky--there is no limit to the damage he could do.

• Robinson Canó: Was insanely hot, then cooled off, and now is pretty warm again. He is night and day with himself last year, and the Yanks are probably pretty happy they got the 'day' version this year.

• Melky Cabrera: Already has three walk off hits this season. It's not just that he's taking better ABs (and he is), it's that he's making them count. The shoulder injury looked painful on TV, but if what we're hearing is right than the injury should not be too devastating. At the very least, nothing is broken or dislocated and small mercies though they be, they still count.

• Nick Swisher: has cooled off something awful. He needs a day off (or three), but until Nady is back and with Melky hurt it won't happen any time soon. He's still managed to keep a very good attitude about the whole thing, but you can see he's pressing. Every hitter slumps; it's not the slump that matters so much as whether or not you can get yourself out of it.

• Hideki Matsui: Had also been slumping awful and then he hit two home runs last night Maybe the change of scenery was what he needed; at any rate, he needs a few more games before we can call the slump over.

• Brett Gardner: Seems to have his bwest games when coming in off the bench for someone that's been injured or tossed. Melky's getting the better swings; but Gardner doesn't look as lost as he did earlier in the season. Plenty of players--ie, Miguel Cairo--have fashioned lengthy careers off the bench.

• Ramiro Peña: Also been slumping, but the difference is he was never supposed to hit in the first place. His defense makes up for it, though. So the Yankees will take it.

• Francisco Cervelli: I thought this kid was a Mendoza line hitter at AA? He's still got virtually no power, but the fact that he's not an automatic out--and, in fact, has come up big in a few clutch situations--is not really going to upset anyone, either. He continues to do all the little things right and now there's debate if the Yannkees should keep him or Molina on the roster when Molina comes back.

• Kevin Cash: Has likely seen his last game action, which is okay, because he was pretty painful to watch with the bat.

• Angel Berroa: Who?
  

• Jorge Posada, José Molina and Xavier Nady have not played since the last off day.

The Bullpen

Oh, that bullpen. It's been better, but better does not necessarily mean good.

• José Veras: I loved him last year I do not love him this year. i don't know where that control went but it doesn't look like it's going to come back.

• Phil Coke: He's been okay. If you can find it, his postgame comments after his first (and probably only) career save are well worth a listen. It's hard not to like a pitcher who is so candid with the media, but asking the 8th inning of him may be a little too much.

• Alfredo Aceves: Alfredo Mendoza. Seriously, there's nothing else to say. Dude is great. Not perfect, but the best Mendoza-like guy we've hand in ates. If only Girardi would stop trying to proctor him...

• Brett Tomko: Has been kind of what we expected. Okay in low leverage situations; hold your breath in a tie game.

• Mariano Rivera: Between the walk offs and the blow outs he's not gotten a whole lot of pitching opportunities. Still, having seemed to have overcome his dead arm, Mo's the most reliable thing the Yankees have outside of, well anything. For what it's worth, it's Mo that's done and told AJ to "get the pie ready" during the walk offs, and Mo that sat as judge during the kangaroo court.

The Yankees are 3-3 in their last six but 12-4 in their last 16. The most impressive thing here is that they've followed each loss with a win, as if to say that they can't wait for their next nine game winning streak.

Messin' with Texas (Postgame Notes Memorial Day 2009)

Phil Hughes must really want to stay in that rotation.

It's so easy to see the 11-1 score of today's game and automatically assume that today's game revolved around an offensive explosion, a real manifest of Bronx bombing.

But if you did that, you'd be wrong.

Really, really wrong.

The Yankees won today because Phil Hughes was exceptional, allowing just three hits over eight innings and no runs (Texas' lone run was scored off of a Nelson Cruz HR in the bottom of the 9th).

The Yankee offense struck early, and stuck often, using singles, doubles and sac flies--not home runs--to build their ten run lead; but had they never scored another run after the first inning, they would have still won the game. That's how well Hughes pitched.

Maybe it's something about Texas; after all, last time Hughes pitched here he nearly had a no-hitter.

At any rate, what's really awesome, is that the last two times the Yanks have lost a game, they've come right back with a win the next day.

For the first time since 2007 (not counting April), the Yankees are only a game out of first place, and they are in first in the Wild Card (though no one on the Yankees or their fans really want to settle for that).

After all, this team is simply playing too well for that.

Anatomy of a Winning Homestand

Despite their loss today, the Yankees went 8-2 on their ten game homestand.

I guarantee that if you ask any single person in a Yankees' uniform they will tell you that, yes, it would have been nice to sweep the homestand, but going 8-2 over ten games is not a shoddy deal.

Here's why the Yankees went 8-2.

1) They beat the team they were supposed to beat, no excuses, sweeping Baltimore in the middle three games of the series.

2) They never said die, even in games it didn't look like they'd win. They had four walk-off wins; nearly five, and in some of the walk-offs never lead until their final at bat. The starting pitching kept the team in the game; the bullpen did a remarkably good job, despite often playing short, and the offense came up clutch when it mattered.

3) The homestand wasn't the responsibility of one single player. Nearly everyone pulled their weight at some point. There will always be someone slumping; what matters is whether or not the rest of the team can pick that someone up. This week, the Yankees did.

4) Starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching.

Only AJ Burnett struggled on Friday. Nearly every other game, every starter kept the team in the game, even if they had to grit through it (and when the starter couldn't, ie, Joba's injury, the bullpen did).


5) Clutch hitting.

Four walk off wins, and nearly five, says a heck of a lot. None of the walk offs came against the weak Orioles; they came against the relatively competitive Twins and the world champion Phillies.



So, there you have it.

Yes, the Yankees dropped the series to the Phillies, but they came *that close* to not. If Teixeira doesn't ground into that double play, the Yankees probably win that game.

There was one loss--that on Friday--in which the Yankees never had much of a shot at winning the game. One, out of ten games.

The team is playing with the type of energy and fight that, face it, we haven't had since 2003.

Yes, the Yankees are still be in third place.

If they keep playing like this, they won't be for long.

CC Dealing, Teixeira and A-Rod Smashing, Yankees Winning (Postgame Notes 19 May 2009)

A Yankees fan could get used to this.

For his third start in a row, CC Sabathia was great--tonight going seven innings giving up just three hits and one earned run; two of the hits and the one run in the first inning.

For the second game in a row, both Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez homered, and for Alex, it was his fourth game in a row with a home run.

The two sluggers are getting it done--while Alex hasn't been getting the singles or the doubles that Teixeira is, he's making up for them with home runs, most of them no doubters in any stadium.

While this game turned into a laugher, for most of the game, it was a tight 2-1 score.

Sabathia's dominant performance might not seem so important, but at the time it was. Baltimore scored one run in the top of the first; the Yankees responded with two via an A-Rod jack in the bottom of the inning, and then neither team did much of anything.

At one point Sabathia retired 12 straight birds while the O's starter Bergesen retired 13 straight Yankees, and it seemed the game would end up a good, old fashioned pitcher's duel.

That, however, did not count on Baltimore's bullpen.

After the first two Yankee baserunners reached in the seventh, O's manager called upon once-highly-touted-closing-prospect Chris Ray. A single, error, double and home run later, he was unable to record a single out, and the score had gone from 2-1 to 9-1.

The good news continued for the Yankees, as Brian Bruney was able to enter in the eighth inning for his first appearance since going on the DL and pitched a one-two-three inning.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what the $200 million team looks like.

A starting pitcher that keeps the team in the game (or, in CC's case, is utterly dealing), an offense that does enough against good pitching and crushes bad, and a bullpen that comes in and does it's job so proficiently that you don't notice.

The Yankees have now won seven straight, and are five games over .500 for the first time this season.

Good Starting brings Good Bullpen

Last night I was watching the MLB network and Bill Ripken said something so astoundingly simple and obvious that I just had to take it further:

"You cannot have a good bullpen without a good starting staff."

Let's consider for a moment, shall well, the last few games for the Yankees.

The Yankees have won seven of eight, losing only to Roy Halladay in Toronto. The starting pitching may not have been perfect, but it's been pretty darn good.

In the past six game winning streak, the pitching has allowed two runs three times, four runs twice and more than five just once (last night).

Now, last night may have been far from a decent pitching performance from the Yankees, but what is perhaps more important is that with the #4/#5 starter on the mound (depending on who you ask), the Yankees took a lead and never relinquished it.

It's not as though the bullpen has had many nights off, as three walk-off wins in a row tend to involve bullpen usage, but last night, the bullpen was still able to get it done and avoid the use of Mariano Rivera.

In the last eight games the bullpen has pitched 22 innings and allowed just five earned runs.

It's probably not much of a coincidence that Sabathia, Burnett and Joba have done some of their best pitching of late while Pettitte has been good enough and Hughes, in his last start, only let three of ten runners score.

Now, the current bullpen is far from a good bullpen. Fans shouldn't have to bite their nails when a team scores seven runs on the basis of the reliever brought into pitch, but still, there is reason to be optimistic.

Brian Bruney should return tonight, and while Bruney, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke and Mariano Rivera may not be the core of other Yankee bullpens past (excepting Rivera), it's still a starting point.

A closer, a potential long man, a lefty and a righty set up man that can all get the outs they're supposed to is perhaps the minimum for an effective bullpen, but if they can all do their jobs--and there's no reason to suppose they can't, especially when the starting pitching gives you six or seven innings every time out--everything else becomes gravy.


At the beginning of the season, Yankee starters had not been giving the team any length. For the most part, this seems to have shifted of late, and with it comes a more effective bullpen even without Girardi lifting a finger.

It's probably too obvious, the correlation between good starting and a good bullpen, which is why it needs to be said.