The AL East Isn't What We Thought It Would Be. It's Better.

Last night I was thinking about the Jays.

I was thinking about the Jays, and how people are saying,

"Look at how Toronto is now 1-5 against non-Baltimore AL East opponents," as if to say that no, they're really not that good.

Now, these people are likely right. That a team that a number of experts picked to finish last in the division, or only just above it, has maintained its hold on first place for so long, deserves commendation...and also a second look.

The Jays are 16-8 against the AL Central, and 19-8 against the AL Central and Baltimore. They're 7-4 against the AL West, which is respectable enough, and, as said before, 1-5 against non-Baltimore AL East, for a total of 8-9 against non-AL Central, non-Baltimore opponents.

This illustrates two things:

1) The early Jays schedule was chock full of AL Central opponents,

and,

2) That the AL Central is quite possibly not very good.


It's not just the Jays here, either:

The Yankees are 10-4 against AL Central opponents; two losses against the Indians and one each against Justin Verlander and Kansas City.

Then again, maybe it's not the AL Central.


Maybe it's the AL East.


The division leaders in the AL Central, AL West, NL East would all be in fourth place in the current AL East; Milwaukee in the NL Central and the Dodgers in the NL West are right now the only teams that would be in first in the AL East, and when you consider the Dodgers' competition in the NL West--and they are 20-8 in their own division--the 29 wins is a bit qualified.

As another example, consider how the other teams in the AL are doing against the AL East.

Out of the other nine teams in the American League, only the vaunted Angels have a winning record against the AL East, and they've played their favorite regular-season foe Red Sox a few times already.

I would guess, right about now, that teams in the AL Central and AL West are very thankful for the unbalanced schedule, and that getting into the playoffs is based on how you do in your division more so than overall standings...

Another way of looking at it is that the AL East has not one, but two teams over .600, and the Yankees, at .585 are not far behind.

Granted, the Blue Jays will fall back to earth, at least a little, but the Rays are only just beginning to play well. In the end, the Jays and the Rays may simply end up flip-flopping, although, right now, if one takes the record against AL East teams as a portent, the Red Sox would have to be favored, being 16-6 against the division (with five wins against the Yankees and three against the Jays).

At any rate, what this means--and what we've kind of known all along--is that the AL East could end up finishing the season with the, potentially, three or even four best records in the American League, if Toronto doesn't falter too badly, and only two will even have a shot at the playoffs.


Crazy sport, right?

Some Random Thoughts from Spring Training

I'll admit it. I've been an awful blogger the past couple of weeks. I'll spare you the excuses.

Anyway, now that Spring Training is a few weeks old, I've had a couple of thoughts that keep repeating:

• I wish the Yankees would do something about the fact that Derek Jeter is not going to be able to play shortstop for a whole heck of a lot longer. They've got a couple prospects at the lower levels, I think, but I would love to see if perhaps they considered trading some of their surplus pitching talent for a closer-to-ready SS...unless the kids the Yankees have in their system really are supposed to be that good...but, given that you never hear them mentioned in the nearly the same breath as Jackson, Montero, Romine, et al, that doesn't bode very well.

• Posada's been swinging the bat well. I wonder how many people remember that in last spring training, in the first game against USF, Posada hit a triple?

• I wouldn't worry too much about the pitching right now--and here I'm talking about the starting. All you need to worry about is whether or not they stay healthy. Don't go too much on Spring Training performances--remember how good Canó was in March and how bad he was in April?

• As the economy continues to collapse and enters downright scary-as-hell territory, I have to think that it might soon become very possible to see ticket prices, at least from fan-to-fan selling, come down a tad. Granted, no, you still won't be able to afford tickets for Opening Day, but the prices for the Cubs exhibition games, at least the ones I've seen, aren't too bad (until you consider that face value is 1923 prices, but we'll ignore that). I'm still hoping to magically land a ticket (or two) for Friday night, but I have to go to a conference all day on Saturday, which is a shame since I'd much prefer the day game.

• If you haven't seen it, PBP was mentioned on the New York Magazine website here the other day, under the appropriate named linked 'fanatic-blogs'. My inappropriate sense of self-importance grows ever larger.
  

Analyzing the Yankee Bench

The issues facing the Yankees' rotation and starting line-up have been well documented--for example, check out LoHud's post on the rotation. While some still seem to be unable to rid themselves of the sign-Ben-Sheets mantra, the basic problem facing the rotation is still the lack of a quality fourth starter.

With the Yankee line-up, the questions are a little more subtle--do you start Nady or Swisher? Gardner or Cabrera? Where do you bat Canò?

However, one of the issues that is receiving relatively little attention is that of the Yankee Bench.

Sure, the bench might not be as critical as the rotation, but anyone that says the bench isn't important simply didn't watch Yankee baseball in 2008.

So, for the sake of discussion, let's assume that the 2009 seasons started on 14 January and that the Yankees decided to DH Matsui and to start Nady over Swisher, and Gardner over Cabrera.

That leaves us with a bench of Melky Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Josè Molina and Cody Ransom.

The one guy listed there that you can almost guarantee the Yankees won't touch is not, in fact, Nick Swisher but Josè Molina.

Jorge Posada did have major shoulder surgery last year, and while he seems to be recovering nicely, we still don't know how his arm will respond in an in-game situation. If it responds poorly, not only is Molina an adequate back-up, he is, by some accounts, the best defensive catcher in the game. Hey, when you throw out nearly half of everyone trying to steal a base, I'm not complaining.


The other person that stands out on that list is Nick Swisher.

Swisher is clearly the best bat of the bunch, but that in itself presents its own problems. Teams don't generally give five-year, nearly $27 million contracts to players to come off the bench.

Had the Yankees been unable to sign Teixiera, Swisher would have been a very viable plan B, but as it is, the Yankees did sign Teixiera and now there are rumors rampant that the Yankees are looking to move either Nady or Swisher. Swisher is drawing more interest than Nady-which should tell you something about whether or not other teams think Swisher belongs on the bench.

Guess it also says something about the Yankees, that they can afford to have Swisher on the bench...

Cody Ransom was a great story when he came up last season and started Shane Spencering everywhere, but at 32 he doesn't exactly have youth on his side, nor does he have very promising career numbers, just in terms of games played alone.

That said, right now Ransom is the only bench option that can fill in at third, short and second, which is a very good reason for the Yankees not to move him. Between Rodriguez, Jeter and Canò, one is historically not looking at a whole lot of playing time from the bench, but things happen. Players get hurt, ejected, etc. One only has to remember the beginning of last season-while there is certainly no replicating the bat of Alex Rodriguez or Derek Jeter, one hopes to have more production than, say, Alberto Gonzalez.

So while Ransom remains a great story and a likable fellow, he's probably not the guy you want to see come up in the ninth inning with a man on second and two outs.

This brings us lastly to Melky Cabrera.

For a time in 2008 it looked like Cabrera was going to have a break-out year, and then, all of a sudden, he stopped.

It got bad enough to the point that Cabrera was sent down to AAA Scranton-though at this point it was becoming pretty clear that the Yankees were not going to make the playoffs.

As one ESPN analyst said last year, theoretically Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner are both "warming the seat" for Austin Jackson...but Jackson is still likely a full season away from the majors, which means that the Yankees have a center field issue for 2009.

Since Nady has stated he doesn't play a good center and Cashman has stated that Swisher won't play center, that leaves the Yankees with the Cabrera/Gardner platoon.

Although Cabrera is technically a switch-hitter, his numbers suggest that he is much better from one side than the other. When you consider that Gardner has better speed and is patient enough to be a lead off hitter (although his power is sorely lacking), Gardner would seem like the better starting option.

The problem with trying to move Melky is that, after last season, the Yankees would be unlikely to be able to center a deal around him, unless they were trading for a player of a similar caliber--which isn't exactly what the Yankees need to do unless they are that desperate for a player at a certain position.

Defensively, Carera can be great--that is, as long as he's not getting distracted by the Roll Call (I should know, I was at that game!)--but right now neither his bat nor Garnder's offers anything like the power the Yankees are usually accustomed to getting from their center fielders.



The Yankees bench, if it started today, would be far from the worst that the Yankees have ever had--April 2007, anyone?--but it does present some concerns. There's only one player than can play all the infield positions (Ransom), a bat that is, from a cost-effective point of view, getting paid too much to ride the pine (Swisher) and the latter half of a center field platoon that might very well duke it out in Tampa to see who gets to hit in the nine spot.

Right now the bench is not the Yankees' overriding concern, but it is an issue that they should address in some fashion before the season starts.

Something About April Slow Starts

Over the past few seasons one thing in particular has plagued the Yankees like no other: slow starts that leave the team battling to break the .500 barrier in May and June, when league-leading teams are beginning to pull away and the contenders for the playoff spots are taking shape.

There have been numerous theories as to why the team starts slow, ranging from the older players being slow starters to some of the Latino players not being able to play well in cold weather (which could explain poor October performances), to a tough schedule...

All of these theories have some merit, but the true answer, supposing there is one, is more complicated than that.

Let's take a look at some numbers provided by the fine folks at River Ave Blues.

As they state, the stats are BAA/OBP/SLG for April, and then the regular season:

Jorge Posada, C
April: .280-.371-.502
Rest of Season: .276-.381-.472

Mark Teixeira, 1B
April: .256-.346-.442
Rest of Season: .295-.383-.558

Robinson Cano, 2B
April: .237-.282-.328
Rest of Season: .311-.341-.488

Derek Jeter, SS
April: .306-.386-.441
Rest of Season: .318-.383-.461

Alex Rodriguez, 3B
April: .311-.391-.611
Rest of Season: .305-.388-.572

Johnny Damon, OF
April: .273-.344-.410
Rest of Season: .291-.354-.439

Xavier Nady, OF
April: .285-.341-.493
Rest of Season: .279-.332-.450

Nick Swisher, OF
April: .253-.370-.481
Rest of Season: .242-.351-.446

Hideki Matsui, DH
April: .268-.363-.416
Rest of Season: .300-.372-.491

There are a few observations to make:

1) If the Yankees believe that the players being slow starters is the primary cause of the spring malaise, they did themselves no favors by picking up Teixiera, who is an admitted slow-starter.

2) Of the players listed, Robinson Canò is the only Latino player born and raised outside of the US or a US territory, so even though his April numbers are historically worse than the rest of the season (young as he is, he's already known as a slow starter), it's impossible to blame an entire team's slow start on one player. Okay, so it's true that the best part of the Yankees' 2008 season, right after the All Star Break, also coincided with Canò remembering how to hit, but it also coincided with some excellent starting and bullpen pitching.

3) Matsui's numbers are also somewhat significantly poorer in April than in the rest of the year, but it's unlikely that the excuse that he can't play in the cold weather would hold much weight-Matsui is from Japan, not the Dominican.


So what you end up with is a line-up where some, but by no means all or even most, players are slow-starters, and the Yankees themselves don't seem too concerned about this-Teixiera's April/rest of the year split may, in fact be the most notable out of everyone listed.


The next thing to look at is the schedule that the Yankees have played in April over the past few years.

In 2007, the Yankees had a fairly favorable April schedule. Aside from opening at home and a traditional weekend series in Boston, all of the other games were either played in "warm" cities or domes. It should also be noted that half of their losses came against teams like Toronto and the-then last place Rays.

In 2008, you will, of course remember that the visit of one Pope Benedict XVI meant an extended road trip for the Yankees, a trip that included the likes of Kansas City, Boston, Chicago and Cleveland. In fact, over the entire month, the Yankees had only two games in a dome, and Baltimore, which is somewhere in between a cold and warm city.

The 2009 schedule presents similar challenges as the 2008 schedule--playing in a lot of "cold" cities in April--Kansas City, Detroit, Boston and, of course, New York. While the Yankees don't have anything like a 19-game road trip, they do play in three other teams' home openers--though, perhaps thankfully, the Red Sox are not among them.

So what does this mean? Do the Yankees have a legitimate gripe about the Aprils that they have been playing?

Well...no. The Yankees aren't the only team that plays in cold weather in April, and a schedule in which the Yankees only played in domes or on the West Coast before the middle of the month would probably attract more notice than last year's Road Trip of Doom.

Do some players have a harder time playing in cold weather? Sure.

Cold weather tends to favor the pitcher over the hitter since the ball doesn't carry as far, and in 2007, where Yankee pitching was such that Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa were the one and two starters, the simple argument is that the Yankees were not well-constructed in terms of pitching, which, among other, more noticeable things, meant that there was an inability to pitch around the cold weather.

However, 2008 doesn't really hold that weight, when both Wang and Pettitte were holding their own and Mussina was learning how to pitch like Jamie Moyer. There is the above argument that cold weather stifles offense, but last year's Yankee offense was stifled all year--it wasn't just April at work.


Perhaps, then, the answer to why the Yankees keep starting slow can't be answered by any one answer-each season is a unique case, and what causes the Yankees to start slow in one year might not be what causes the same slow start the next.

What is clear, though, is that the Yankees can't afford to start slow. They don't have to go 28-0 in April, but they can't go 11-17, not when divisions are decided by a game or less. It was, after all, a fairly common refrain last September--if only we had won that one game in April or that one game in May, we'd be in the playoffs right now!

Hopefully, in 2009, come September we'll be saying something else--something to the tune: "Damn, am I really glad we swept that homestand back in April, it means we're going to play in October." Only, you know, less forced than that.