Where* art thou Robertson?

In his book Birth of a Dynasty, Joel Sherman opens with the 1995 postseason.

He makes mention that Buck Showalter had a young Mariano Rivera in the bullpen--ostensibly along for the ride--but did not use him correctly, to close out, in that fatal game five when it would have mattered most.

I won't bore you with the details of that game, we remember well enough what happened.


Now think about this:

As I have stated previously, the best reliever not named Mariano Rivera on the Yankee staff right now is David Robertson.

More than once this postseason, Robertson, who debuted last season, has been single-handedly responsible for keeping the Yankees' game hopes alive.

It's easiest for me to remember his game 2 ALDS performance since I saw it in person, and to be honest, the performance was nearly Mariano-like.

This really shouldn't surprise any of us.

Robertson's strikeout per nine this season is twelve. That's an astounding rate--Mariano, in his historical campaign last season was at nearly thirteen (for contrast, this year he's at a pedestrian six).

Yet, despite Roberson's success, Girardi seems, at times, to be reluctant to use him.

Sure, Robertson had a masterful performance in the ALDS, but at the time the only pitchers Girardi had to use were Robertson and Gaudin--so the choice was more or less made for him.

As far as Game 3 is concerned, most, if not all of us agree that Girardi should have left Robertson in to pitch to Kendrick in the 11th inning, and I needn't go into Girardi's explanation for removing the young right hander.

So, what gives? Why does Girardi seem so reluctant to use the one non-Mariano pitcher that has consitently come up big this postseason?

I can think of two possible explanations, neither one of which I particularly enjoy:

1) Girardi is attempting to mask some sort of injury. This sounds far fetched--and it's nothing more than a hunch on my part--but given Robertson's Andrews visit in September, I can't brush it off entirely.

2) Like Showalter and Rivera, Girardi doesn't know what he has in Robertson. While on the surface this seems to be the much more plausible explanation of the two, it actually makes less sense to me.

Robertson has been up with the Yankees for the majority of the season, and has progressed from low leverage situations to playoff situations where one bad pitch ends the game--and you don't get much more high leverage like that.

There is an argument to be made for experience, but the only other reliever with any significant postseason experience is Mariano himself.

I can understand not using Robertson in favor of the lefties when the situation warrants (although you can debate which lefty should be used), but I'm not so sure, at this point, that Chamberlain or Aceves should be used ahead of our very own D-Rob.


Bullpens are notoriously fickle things--at the start of 2009, let's not forget, it was Mariano Rivera and the Arson Squad of Doom.

That said, that's all the more reason that when one reliever is proving himself to be a hot hand, he should be the manager's first choice, not his last.

The Yankees have a bullpen advantage over Anaheim; Girardi has to make it work.




*wherefore, the common Shakespearean term, means not where, but why. Thus, 'wherefore' is not the appropriate title for the blog post. Head explode yet?

When you assume...

We assumed.

We assumed and we started to plan, as though all that was left was tying up some gift ribbons and signing the greeting card.

We forgot, in the process, that the Yankees still had to win the game.

They had to win the game, in Anaheim, against the best Angels pitcher. Even on paper it was no easy thing.

We assumed, and we were wrong.


You can attach blame wherever you'd like, though only assigning blame does not do much. As my father has told me, some are in love with assigning blame and others prefer to fix problems.

So, here we go:

Some will blame AJ Burnett, some Joe Girardi, and some Phil Hughes.

I am no baseball manager and I've never played in an organized baseball game, but this is what I would have done:

In the seventh inning, I let Burnett come out to start the inning. He's at 80 pitches and has more or less been doing all right since that let's-not-talk-about-it first inning.

Once Mathis reaches, that's when I replace Burnett, instead of giving him the chance to put the tying run on base.

The reliever I bring in is not Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, but David Robertson. I know, it doesn't make a lot of sense, but both Hughes and Chamberlain have been hit this postseason and Robertson has more or less worked some miracles.

At this rate, Robertson right now is the most valuable reliever not named Mariano Rivera.

This isn't to detract from what Hughes or Chamberlain have done this season--and without Hughes, especially, the Yankees aren't even playing tonight--but both have had issues this postseason.


If I leave AJ in to face the first two batters and they both reach, I consider bringing in Mariano Rivera. It's undoubtedly the highest leverage situation at that point, but my issue arises if the Yankees don't add any more insurance runs and the game goes to the ninth still a two run game and your team on the road.

***

Unlike most of you, I suspect, I'm not all that bothered by Girardi's decision to pinch run for Alex Rodriguez in the ninth.

With two outs, and down by one, you do anything you can to tie the score, and while Rodriguez isn't a Molina, Guzman is much more likely to score from first. Again, your team is down two outs, so you don't have any more outs with which to work.

Nick Swisher, of course, killed us all with the 3-2 pop up. I don't know if he was swinging at ball four or not, but the Yankees lost the game in the seventh, after coming so close to winning.

***

So we go back to New York.

The forecast on Saturday calls for rain and thunder.

After everything that's happened this season, the possibility of being able to clinch at home, in the rain--possibly even, well, you know how--has a certain romanticism to it.

October baseball lives on.

A Taste of Their Own as Angels Walk Off on Yanks

Generalizations never achieve much, but in this occasion, one generalization can explain a lot.

The Yankees lost game three of the 2009 ALCS because Joe Girardi managed a road game as if he were still home.

You can call it over-managing if you'd like--and indeed, it probably was--but managing the game the way Girardi does at home is not nearly as much of an issue as it is on the road, especially in extra innings.

1) At home, one run by your team in extras and the game is over. You don't have to worry about scoring, and then pitching again in the bottom of the inning as you do on the road.

2) On the road, one run from the other team and the game is over. Your offense doesn't get another shot.


So here's the breakdown.

1) The Yankees' biggest issue in this game--and, it's looking like their biggest issue this series--is a lack of hitting with runners on base. Every Yankee run today was via a solo home run, and while the Yankees have had decent enough pitching to win when they score four runs much of the time, much is not all. The Yankees had golden opportunities to add to their lead, and they did not. Andy Pettitte made one bad pitch, and well, boom. A 3-1 cushion is not a big cushion, at all.

2) I don't have an issue with leaving Pettitte in to face Guerrerro although I admit that, since I did not have a computer handy, I don't know what his pitch count was at the time. My issue is with the pitch Pettitte threw: there was no reason, in that situation, to give Guerrerro anything to hit. Guerrerro swings at, well, everything. Sabathia and Burnett can blow it by the former Expo; Pettitte cannot.

3) Chamberlain looked awful. Girardi was quick with his hook, but, alas, not quick enough. Someone--and I can't remember where I read this, so apologies to whomever I should be citing--said that this postseason, Joba's fastball has been there but his slider has not, which may explain why he's been hooked quickly.

The great thing about going to games with well-informed fans is that you get excellent analysis as well, and I thus agree with the commenter known as TSJC: Joba tends to overthrow, as though he is too amped and trying to do too much. It's been an issue with him as long as he's been with the Yankees.

4) I did not agree with Girardi's decision to leave Hughes in to start a third inning. Hughes hasn't pitched more than two since what, June? May? And against the heart of the Angels' order, as well, it just didn't make sense to me. Girardi thus made the right call to bring in Rivera, and, well, Mo is simply not mortal.

First and third, no one out, and Rivera got out of the jam. At the time, the Stadium exploded and we thought it was perhaps destiny that we'd win.

5) The biggest issue I had with Girardi's overmanaging was bringing in Aceves to face Kendrick. Robertson had already had two outs, had little history vs Kendrick (if any at all) and is a strike out pitcher. Aceves, on the other hand, has a propensity for giving up fly balls, and as we all saw, the ball certainly carried today. At home, if the other team hits a home run, you still get a chance to get the run back the next day, but on the road, you do not.

As it were, Kendrick singled and Mathis drove him in with a long fly off the wall, but it is my belief that Robertson could have gotten the third out.

6) TSJC had an issue with Girardi replacing Damon with Hairston, not that he did it but when he did it. With the bases loaded and less than two outs, anything hit to left field is likely going to score the winning run, anyway. It makes little sense.

7) If Gardner is inserted into the game to pinch run, he has to run. He has to go on the first pitch--where there's pretty much no chance of a pitch out. Gardner's not in there to hit home runs, and the only reason to remove Matsui's bat is because you are going for the win right then, and need the RISP. If Gardner steals successfully, Posada's home run is a game winning, and not game tying (fallacy of the predetermined and all).

8) GOOD: Jeter's third pitch home run, holy crap what is A-Rod smoking and where can I get some, that Melky-Jeter-Teixeira play in the 8th to nab Abreu (where the heck was Canó on that? We were trying to figure it out!) Mariano is not mortal, and Teixeira is (again) worth it for his defense alone.


Okay. I think I touched on most of the important things. You can argue whether or not Sabathia should have pinch hit for Rivera instead of Cervelli, but there is no way Rivera was going to go out and pitch a second inning.

If Andy Pettitte pitches to Guerrerro a little differently, the Yankees are probably looking at clinching the American League pennant tomorrow and Girardi's overmanaging is a non-issue.

Such as it is, the Yankees will send CC Sabathia out on three days' rest, and a stop-loss here would be crucial.

We said going in that this series would be a dogfight, and with two extra inning games already in the books, it has thus far lived up to its billing.

Singing the praises of the unsung

There are many heroes to choose from in last night's game.

The most obvious of these is easily Alex Rodriguez, who has gone from having a "Yankee moment" in game 2 of the ALDS to having a "Yankee postseason", pure and simple, but others should not be overlooked.

Like, for example, David Robertson.

Before this season started, we knew a few things about Robertson: he was rumored unhittable when he threw strikes, did not always throw strikes enough, and tended to have issues in high leverage situations.

Well, I must say, the ability to watch a pitcher mature throughout a season is a favorite pastime of many.

Phil Hughes would be the most glaring example--and no, I don't think he's slated for the bullpen permanently, but watching him turn from a question mark to a secret weapon to a not-so-secret weapon has been awesome.

One should not, however, forget Robertson.

In April, there is perhaps no way you trust Robertson in such a high-leveraged spot; in October he's now save the Yankees' collective behinds twice.

The ALDS game 2 performance is certainly flashier--bases loaded, no one out, and not giving up a run--while the ALCS performance involved pouring rain and pitching into Sunday morning.

It does say something about how important a pitcher is perceived by the fans when, as Girardi went to bring in Marte, Twitter was afloat with comments mostly akin to the tune of "we want D-Rob!"

As the Yankees postseason run continues--they are, at the very least, guaranteed at least four more games--more heroes will emerge.

The remaining games the Yankees have to play, however, would have a remarkably different tune without the contribution from the young right hander.

Reflections

By the time you read this post, it will have been 24 hours since the first pitch of last night's ball game and last night's win that was everything that 2006 and 2007 were not.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that last night's game was a microcosm of everything this season, a microcosm of the team, of its flaws and its strengths, of its poise and of its fight.

We've been following this team all year. We know about the walk off wins, about the pies, about the pitching staff that at times is unhittable and at other times can't find anything that looks remotely like a strike zone. We know about all the breaks that just seem to go the Yankees' way, about the A-Rod story that is over and done, and we know about the life injected by Sabathia, Burnett, Swisher and Teixeira.

So last night played out like any important game this season did: a close game with just enough breaks going the Yankees' way and a pie a la AJ.

It can't be a coincidence that Rodriguez has the two biggest home runs (thus far) of the 2009 Yankees: the bottom-of-the-fifteenth inning blast to win a scoreless marathon against Boston, and last night's game-tying ninth inning blast. Rodriguez has hit many other home runs--like the first pitch he saw of the 2009 season and a three run home run and grand slam in the final regular season game, and it seems odd to say but he may very well have been the most underrated Yankee this year.

It can't be a coincidence that, not since the middle of October 2003, did such a thing seem possible.

Yet, this is, historically, who the Yankees are: they reign in October. They find heroes in the likely, in the unlikely, in those in need of redemption and in those further cementing a legendary glory.

Just look at Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and David Robertson.

All three of them have had an impact on 2009--two of them with salaries more than the GDPs of some small nations, and one of them whose role last night might, some years from now, be forgotten by all except his teammates and the most die-hard among his team's fans.

Rodriguez had helped his case with his Game One performance, but he still needed that ultimate redemption, that signature moment in the postseason in which fans could forever ask, "remember when A-Rod hit that home run?".

Mark Teixeira had found himself welcomed this season in the Bronx with open arms--his defense alone, perhaps, being worth the honor--but he was on the verge of an 0-for-two-games and there was not a single Yankee fan that wanted to stomach, no matter how briefly, that as being a possibility.

Then there was Robertson, a bullpen pitcher who has largely remained unnoticed because he has been so effective. The closer and eighth inning spots already taken, Robertson often appeared either earlier, or later, in extra innings, when the most climactic moments of the game seem to have passed by. Robertson, who has none of the experience of Mariano Rivera, found a way to exhibit the same poise.


Three different players, at three very different points in their careers, three different personalities and three different projections and postulations by the media, and yet all three crucial to the win.

That's the thing about the Yankees that resonates so well: sure, there are the heroics from Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and Derek Jeter, Reggie Jackson and Alex Rodrigues, but then there are also the heroics from those like Bucky Dent and Chad Curtis, Luis Sojo and Jose Vizcaino.


We don't know what tomorrow's game will bring; the only guarantee is that since the Yankees are not the home team, they can't have a walk off win.

That doesn't seem likely to matter, however, as this team, like the great ones not so long ago, has found a way to win in nearly every situation.

Will the game story be the starter, Andy Pettitte? Will it be another hitter? A baserunning play that saves the Yankees' the game or costs them it? We don't know, and that, perhaps, might be why we love this team so much.

Anything is possible.

Breaking Down the Yankees for the Second Half - The Bullpen

[So the All Star Game is officially over--and we can thus consider ourselves in the second half.

This is where it gets fun.

All of those days players got rested in the first half? Well, now they have to play. Now the pennant races start to heat up, and every move a team makes, be it a trade, a free agent signing or simply bringing someone up from AAA has even more added meaning.

What do we expect from the Yankees?

I'm going to do a series of posts addressing this, because there's so much to say that having it all in one post would a) kill your eyes and mine, and b) give me carpal tunnel at the age of 23.]

Since this is the last post in the series, I'll provide you with an index:

The Rotation
The Lineup, Part 1
The Lineup, Part 2
The Bench

Now it's on to the mother of all things Yankees:

The Bullpen

To do this post justice, one has to figure out who should be included, and who might be a little more expendable--since bullpens are fluid and change so much over the course of a season.

In this instance I'm going to settle around the "core" of Mariano Rivera, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Brian Bruney, David Robertson and Brett Tomko--the guys that have been around (or should have been around) all season. Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo will get passing nods, but we'll go ahead and pretend that Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez were not utterly awful.

As a whole, the bullpen struggled early--when most of the rotation did, as well--but the call-up of Alfredo Aceves seemed to work miracles. That one move allowed for the short relievers to remain short relievers, for Coke and Hughes to basically claim the eighth between them and for Robertson and Tomko not to be faced with undue pressure.

When Aceves was moved from the bullpen for a spot start, we saw the 'pen fall apart again--though, this time, fortunately, the All Star break came at exactly the right time.

As long as Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte are utterly ineffective, look for Aceves to remain in the bullpen.

(The so-called bullpen core in alphabetical order)

Alfredo Aceves

The statistics will tell you that Alex Rodriguez, and not Alfredo Aceves is the more valuable of the two Yankees to make their first appearance this season in early May, but Aceves' value lies in far more than just the numbers he's posted.

The easiest way to explain what Aceves has meant to the Yankees in 2009 out of the bullpen would be to say that Aceves is pitching in a role similar to that of Ramiro Mendoza, but his numbers out of the bullpen are actually closer to what Mariano Rivera posted in 1996.

Since Aceves can pitch multiple innings at a time without getting worn down, the short relievers--especially guys like Phil Coke and David Robertson--do not have to pitch nearly as much as they otherwise would. This not only saves their arms from, uh, being Proctor'd, but helps keep them more effective over the long haul.

Look for Aceves to remain in the bullpen for now--after the disaster in Anaheim, the Yankees probably don't want to mess with the bullpen too much--but if Mitre, the presumed new fifth starter, bombs and the Yankees decide not to go after Halladay (or another, you know, more attainable starter), Aceves could end up the fifth starter.

In which case we will all have to hold our breath in the second halves of games started by Chamberlain and Pettitte.


Brian Bruney

The season that, for Bruney, started with so much promise has quietly turned into a disaster. He'd earned himself the eighth inning role before going down on the DL with an elbow problem, worked his way back only to go back on it after just one appearance, and now seems to have lost the command that had been so important in the first place.

In short, it's the return of the 2007 version of Brian Bruney.

The Yankees really want to get him right--if he can somehow recover his arm strength and command, the Yankees could consider, more seriously, the idea of sending Hughes down to AAA to stretch him out as a starter (although I explain here why I don't think it would work), but even if Bruney did recover, the risk inherent in relying on a power pitcher who's twice been on the DL in the same season with elbow problems is an enormous one.

It's a shame, really, because Bruney showed so much promise in 2008 before hurting his foot, and then again in early 2009.

I don't know what happened for Bruney to have such awful karma, but something apparently did.

Going forward, Bruney will likely be used in low-leverage situations until his command improves, or he will be used in mop-up like roles after the starters (yet again) are inefficient. He'll have to work his way back to the 8th and even then there is no guarantee.


Phil Coke

The battle between Good Coke and Bad Coke may be as addicting to watch as the battle between Good Melky and Bad Melky. Actually, the entire reason to want to see him pitch is to watch the postgame interviews afterward.

Coke struggled in the beginning, found a groove, and then struggled again in his most recent appearance in Anaheim.

On the whole, he's been fairly dependable, but tends to give up too many hits--6 HR in 38 IP is not a portent for good things to come--so the Yankees are best served if he is used very sparingly, which, thanks to Aceves and Hughes, he now is.

Should Dámaso Marte stop playing catch and start playing baseball, he could help ease some of Coke's LOOGY duties, and provide some relief for the Yankees, who are playing with fire.


Phil Hughes

Probably the most controversial reliever, not because he's pitched poorly, but because he probably should have never been in the bullpen in the first place.

As a starter, Hughes wasn't exactly dominating anywhere outside of Texas, but he was getting better, and showing improved consistency and efficiency. Considering that this is his first healthy season since all the way back in 2006, that's not something to be taken lightly.

As a reliever, Hughes has just dominated. You can see the splits here, but to sum:

Hughes' ERA is 0.98, his BAA is .115, OBPA is .182 and WHIP is 0.655.

Hughes has only pitched 18.1 innings in relief, and his BABIP is an insane .147, so there's certainly a case to be made that the law of averages will catch up to him, but with relievers much of the time, you only have a small sample size to use, so you ride the hot arm as long as it stays hot.

If the Yankees have learned only one thing here, it's that if Hughes, for whatever reason, loses his value as a starter next season, he still has plenty of value as a reliever.

Look for him to keep the 8th inning role in the second half unless the Yankees have utterly no choice but to stretch him out again. If that happens, than the Yankees will probably have bigger issues than what they do about the eighth inning...


Mariano Rivera

He's Mo. Really.

He was getting hit more often in the beginning of the season, which had some worried, but this seems to have been a result of recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and perception, since what he did last season was simply historic.

He's back to his old Mo self now, notching his 500th save and 1st career ERA in the same game.

In the second half, the Yankees probably won't want anything more than for him to keep doing his thing. Wearing number 42, he is, after all, the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything.


David Robertson

The easiest way to explain Robertson in this: when he throws strikes, he's unhittable. When he doesn't, he's unwatchable.

When Robertson comes into a game in low-leverage situations, he throws strikes.

When Robertson comes into a game in high-leverage situations, he throws balls.

You can see why this is a problem.

In a mop-up type role, Robertson is fine for the bullpen, but the problem is that the Yankees play a lot more close games than they do blowouts, and they need relievers that can either protect a lead or keep another team's lead within reach.

Look for him to stick to low-leverage situations, and don't be shocked if some combination of Chien Ming Wang getting healthy again and Sergio Mitre pitching well sends him back on the AAA bus--though likely not before Melancon or Albaladejo.


Brett Tomko

The problem with Tomko is that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

Though a former starter, right now he can't really pitch more than two innings at a time, and he's seldom seen in anything other than a mop-up role or in an extra inning game when all other pitchers have been used.

That said, I think he does get a bit of a bum rap--for what it's worth, Coke has given up more home runs. Then again, Coke's pitched 38 innings and Tomko's only pitched 20...

Although Tomko is a DFA candidate, it would seem more likely that Mark Melancon or Jonathan Albaladejo would be sent back down to Scranton before the Yankees parted ways with Tomko. We shall see.

Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo

Melancon, once hailed as the future Mo, was probably called up from AAA Scranton too soon. He's struggled in AAA since being sent back down, and again since being called up. There's too much talent to write him off, but he does need some more time.

Albaladejo didn't pitch well early and got sent down, has pitched lights out when recalled after Wang got hurt the second time, but then got sent back down...to make room for Melancon.

If Girardi is riding the hot reliever, right now he should stick with Albaladejo.



dude, if you made it this far, I kind of want to hug you...

Screw Baseball Logic. Rivera Should Have Been Pitching (postgame notes 31 May 2009)

Conventional baseball wisdom is a funny thing.

Conventional baseball wisdom states that in a tie game, on the road, you don't pitch your closer beccause there's always the chance that your team will take the lead and you will need someone to pitch the bottom of that inning.

Conventional baseball wisdom, however, also assumes a few things.

It assumes that the rest of your pitching staff is functional and that your other relievers won't have an issue throwing strikes.

It makes the assumption that everything is playing exactly as it should play.

As you might imagine, the problem with this is that this scenario rarely occurs.

Case in point: today's Yankees' game.

Going into the bottom of the ninth in a tie game, the best pitcher the Yankees had left in their bullpen was their closer, Mariano Rivera.

Now, if the Yankees didn't want to pitch Rivera to start the inning, that's one thing, but once Phil Coke gave up the lead off walk and that runner reached scoring position, the move to go to the unreliably wild David Robertson over Mariano Rivera is baffling once you disregard conventional wisdom.

Even if the Yankees take the lead the next inning, it's not as though Rivera's never pitched two innings before...and while it's understandable that you might not want Mo to pitch two innings, surely then you're more comfortable throwing Robertson or Aceves or whomever out there with the lead than in a tie game while Rivera sits unused.

Having worked exactly once since last Sunday, it's hardly like Rivera's been overtaxed.

Sometimes the best managers are the ones who take conventional logic, and then precede to say, "screw it".

*****

Otherwise, the game was nothing to get too upset about--Carl Pavano pitched well, but the Yankees struck when Wedge took him out of the game. Teixeira had all four Yankee RBI; Hughes had one bad inning in the third and it kept him from pitching more than five, though he wasn't awful and the game never got out of hand.

Yankees will have a chance to take the series tomorrow evening.

Some Pregame Notes, 17 April 2009

Some quick pregame notes, courtesy of LoHud:

David Robertson has been sent down and Juan Miranda called up.

Matsui has fluid in his knees from being on base four times yesterday and is a scratch today.

Teixeira got a cortisone shot in his wrist but should be fine for today's game.