An October Issue

More than one person today has brought up with me an issue concerning the postseason.

It doesn't have anything to do with whether or not Joba should start in a postseason series (and after being treated to his antics in person last night I am less than willing in this regard) or who starts game two. Rather, this issue has to do with the playoff structure itself.

Now, playoffs in almost any sport are a crapshoot. These are why office pools exist, after all, and why the mantra so often is "just get in".

The problem is, baseball, unlike any other major sport accentuates the "crapshoot" nature of the playoffs.

It's sort of mind-boggling that both the NBA and the NHL have seven-game series in their first round (yes, I know the NBA is a recent adjustment) when their season is 82 games long, while the MLB, which has a season double in length has a first round of only five games.

Never mind the issues that can be brought up with who makes it to the playoffs in the first place--it is entirely possible for a team to have a better record than another division winner but still miss the playoffs because they are not as good as the Wild Card team--a five game series is not the right way for an MLB playoff series to go.

Keep in mind, the refrain of most managers is that "the season is a marathon, not a sprint." Marathon mentality runs rampant: getting players games off so they stay healthy, making a move later in the season as opposed to setting an early pace--these are all common motifs.

Now imagine telling someone like, say, Paula Radcliffe--winner of three NYC marathons--that three days after running her last marathon she has to go compete in the 400m dash.

Never mind that the mental preparations and physical requirements for marathoning and sprinting are as different as those, perhaps, of baseball and football (okay, I'm stretching this metaphor a little), but this is more or less what a baseball team is supposed to do: they are supposed to suddenly adjust from the marathon mentality of the regular season to the sprint mentality of the playoffs.

It's not a coincidence that Wild Card teams seem to have done so well in recent postseasons: '97, '02, '03, '04 World Series winners were all Wild Card teams, and while the '07 Rockies didn't win the Series, their September miracle might make them the most well-known of all the Wild Card teams. The Wild Card often comes down to the last week or even the last days of the season, and those teams have to adopt a sprint-like mentality just to make the playoffs.

While I'm all for equality, the nature of the playoffs would actually seem to give some sense of an advantage to a Wild Card team--I could explore this further, but let's get back to the issue at hand.

Baseball as a sport is well known for its oddities and unexpected occurrences. The season is 162 games long because even the best baseball team will have a losing streak--remember, even the Yankees had a five-game losing streak in May and dropped a series to the Nationals in June--and it can take that long to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

A five game series, then, is like flipping a coin in the air to decide who gets to move on to the ALDS.

Since I assume you have a mild interest in the Yankees if you're reading this, just think about 2007. Was Cleveland a better team than the Yankees that October? Maybe--but one game was decided not so much by the players as it was by, well, midges. Most of us will still argue that Torre's failure to take the team off the field cost the Yankees that game--and the difference between going to New York split or down 0-2. In a five game series, being down zero games to two is often--thought the 01 Yankees will attest, not always--a death knell.

Again, the thing about baseball is that the length of the regular season allows for oddities like midges, games whose results are determined more by fluke than actual talent.

If the NBA and NHL can manage not just seven game series, but manage to do so every round--which is four rounds as opposed to baseball's three--I have to wonder why a stronger push hasn't been made for the LDS to also be a seven game series.

Part of me wants to argue that they had it right when only the best record in the league played in the World Series and there were no playoffs, but then I'd also have to be willing to part with the '00 ring and other World Series appearances, so I'll draw the line at simply arguing for a longer first round series.

A team that plays every possible game, including a one-game playoff, will play a grand total of 182 games between April and October. So what's the issue with two more?

Dude. Just call the darned game.

It's September 11, a cold, rainy, windy, icky night.

Derek Jeter has broken the hits record--which is what about 80% of the fans paid way, way over market value to see...then again, you can't place a value on it...yadda yadda...

Anyway.

The Yankees, barring an Angels 1995-like collapse (in which case their problems become many), are going to the postseason.

The Orioles are going golfing in October.

It's nearly midnight, and the two teams have to play again at 1 PM the next day.

They have already played not just five, but six innings. The Yankees lost their lead, but they also had their at bat.

It's a 10-6--not a tied or even a close, even by 09 Yankee standards, game.

Why, on earth, was the game not called?

I know New York is the city that never sleeps and all that, but seriously?



Also worth noting here: via various updates on Twitter tonight, even when the game restarted at 12.40, with about 900 fans still in attendance, ushers were still checking tickets.

Dude, I know you're bored, but really?

I know New York doesn't have a reputation for being the friendliest city in the world, but seriously?

If the few hundred people in attendance can't be allowed to move down to the lower level in an empty stadium, I'm not sure what to say. I'm not talking about moving down to the Legends seats; I'm just talking about moving down from the grandstand.

These things make me a very, very grumpy fan.

We don't need red hats on 9/11. We remember.

When talking to a friend last night about Derek Jeter and his record, he mentioned one thought to me: "I hope that Jeter doesn't have to break the hits record in a red cap."

While it's true that Jeter won't have to break the record in a red cap--he'll be wearing a batting helmet--it does bring another issue to light.

It is one thing to wear red caps on Memorial Day or July 4th--days that have equal meaning across the country. While I can't agree with their use on Memorial Day--I have issues with the commercialization of days designed for remembrance--I had no issue with their use on July 4th. July 4th, after all, is a happy holiday, a day of celebration, so why not commercialize the heck out of it?

September 11, though, really gets me riled.

Anyone who argues that September 11 holds the same meaning in say, Oklahoma, as it does in New York City must have not been in New York on that day.

It's no knock against the middle of our country, but 9/11 did claim the majority of its victims from New York.

We don't need red hats to symbolize that day; the date itself is enough for us to remember.

Should I describe to you my thoughts as a fifteen year-old student, watching my classmates, some of the toughest people I'd ever met, reduced to tears because they could not contact their parents who worked in lower Manhattan?

Should I describe to you my thoughts as I sat on the bus home, and how I saw the smoke rising from the New York City skyline?


If Major League Baseball wants to remember September 11, there are decent ways to do it.

Have a member of the FDNY play Taps before the game. Have a moment of silence. You don't need to sell hats that look a little ridiculous when matched with pinstripes.

If you really, really want to stick it to the terrorists, you know what you should do?

Play ball.

Sign of the Times

Jason Giambi was released today and John Smoltz DFA'd.

Giambi was batting .193 and had an OBP in the .330s. Smoltz, well, we know what he did last night.

At one point in time both were among the elite; Smoltz is widely still considered a first-ballot Hall of Fame candidate while Giambi has had some not-so-great moments with PEDs and golden thongs, but he did spend seven seasons in pinstripes, attempting to fill the shoes of the now-legendary clutch Tino Martinez.

More and more of the stars from the late 90s and 00s are nearing the end.

Sad, sure, but in their wake we get to see guys like Mark Teixeira and Jair Jurrjens.

So, as Dr. Seuss would say, don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.

Yankees Coming Up Aces

Lots has been made this season of the Yankees' perceived inability to beat top teams in the league. Never mind the winning records against the Rays, Rangers and Tigers; what people notice is the 2-4 against Anaheim and 0-8 against Boston.

Sure, given the Yankees' recent playoff history, concerns about the Yankees' ability to beat those teams have some merit, but it's not everything.

Consider this:

This season alone, the Yankees have victories against Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, and Mark Buerhle. Those four pitchers are widely considered among the best talent in the league.

Clearly, then, if the Yankees have trouble beating decent teams it's not because they can't beat decent pitching.

It's certainly true that the Yankees beat up on bad teams--they are 40-13 against sub-.500 teams--but leaving it at that would be painting an incomplete picture. Although they are a few games under .500 against winning teams, much of the damage has been done by their record against the Red Sox.

It would be folly to suggest who you win against doesn't matter, since division games count for so much more, but ultimately what matters on September 30th is how many wins your team has.

Ninety-five wins, and you might see October. Even a number as high as 92, however, is probably not enough in the American League, even for Wild Card consideration.

Still, if the Yankees are out there beating the best that other teams have to offer, perhaps it's okay to worry just a little bit less about that Boston record...

So the Yankees have a budget, after all (?) (!)

Or, Another way of considering the Trade Deadline


I have been told that I look for causation in everything.

I don't deny the charge. My background, as a student in history, is such that I do so by habit. If there is a Y, there must be an X.

Sometimes, there is multiple causation. Take, for instance, any great war. There is, at face value, multiple causes.

Even so, for the general rule of things, one simple rule applies: the simplest explanation is often the best.

Such, I have argued, is the case with Joba Chamberlain--pitching innings in the major leagues now that should have been pitched in the minor leagues, Chamberlain faces the normal developmental struggles a young pitcher should expect without the aid of a safety net. Fortunately for the Yankees and their fans, Chamberlain seems to have figured something out in his last few starts, but this is digression.


I would like to consider both these stipulations: that I always look for causation, which hinders my argument, and that the simplest explanation (Occam's Razor) is the best, which helps it.

I would like to consider both of these and apply them to the Yankees' recent behavior this trade deadline, a comment made by Joe Girardi after tonight's game, and what we may be hearing bandied about.


I am going to start, however, by asking you to think back to Christmas 2008, or, a couple of days before.

The Yankees had already shocked no one by signing CC Sabathia to a seven-year, $161 million contract. They had already shocked some by signing AJ Burnett to a five-year, $83 million contract.

Then, the bombshell announcement: the Yankees had signed Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180 million contract.

For the fans, this seemed like Christmas, indeed. The top three free agents in that off-season all ended up in pinstripes, and all locked up for what may very well amount to the defining portion of their careers. All three capable of all-star caliber play. All three clear upgrades over what the Yankees had in those positions in 2007 and 2008.

All three more expensive than most teams could afford, even had the American (and global) economy not collapsed in the preceding autumn.

While my younger brother and I were celebrating the Teixeira signing, my older brother issued a stern warning: "I don't like what the Yankees are doing. It's going to drain them. They're going to go bankrupt if they continue like this."

Now, the comment might be taking things to an extreme, but it appears that it is not wholly without merit.

Consider the activity and non-activity surrounding the trade deadline:

• The Yankees, in first place and with one of the top three records in baseball in the weeks preceding, did not need to move mountains. They had--and still have--a need at the fifth starter, a need made all the more urgent when it became abundantly clear that Chien Ming Wang would not return this season. The Yankees already had a need at the position, since from the start of the season it was known that Joba Chamberlain would have an innings limit. Though the panic move that ultimately sent Phil Hughes to the bullpen eliminated one option, others should have remained had there been some more depth at AAA. No one expected Ian Kennedy to have an anuerysm, for example.
  

• Even so, in the past week, the Yankees have learned, 1) Chien Ming Wang is gone for the year, 2) Alfredo Aceves--the emergency starter candidate du jour--had a tired shoulder, and certainly doesn't look recovered, 3) Sergio Mitre works as a fifth starter against last place teams and little else, 4) the depth at AAA was so bad that the team had to trade for Jason Hirsch, who was pitching to a 6.00+ ERA at that level for Colorado.

• The Yankees' only real other need was another back-up outfielder, but in this case there were in-house options available. The Yankees didn't need another power-hitting corner fielder, they just needed someone that could play halfway decent defense in center and run the bases, at least until Brett Gardner returns. Another reliever would have been nice, too, but not nearly as necessary as another starter.

• The two biggest pitchers rumored to be available at the deadline, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, were mostly discussed by fans (and writers) in the context of "don't-let-Boston-get-them". I, of course, don't know about the Yankees' plans, but it seems that JP Ricciardi overplayed his hand with Halladay and the Yankees never seemed to seriously consider Cliff Lee--at the very least, he didn't seem to be much discussed.

• There wasn't much of a "second-tier" of available pitchers. Jarrod Washburn and Ian Snell were probably the only ones that fit into this catergory, and even Snell here is a stretch. Still, Snell, along with his compatriot Jack Wilson were sent to Seattle earlier this week. That left many Yankee fans clamouring for Washburn, and though it was later revealed that it would have cost Austin Jackson, Washburn did end up in Detroit for the price of Luke French.

• Of more interest is this: it was rumored, partly by Joel Sherman, that the Yankees turned down a potential deal for Brian Bannister of Kansas City because they couldn't get Kansas City to continue to pay the remainder of Bannister's $650k salary--which would be closer to $910k when accounting luxury revenue. These are Bannister's stats, if you're interested. They're nothing spectacular--he's doing it in the weak AL Central--but they'd probably translate better than what Sergio Mitre has been doing.

• In acquiring Eric Hinske, the Yankees got Pittsburgh to pay the rest of his salary. It seemed insignificant enough at the time, right now...not so much.
  

• Now consider the following posts from Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog.com and from Mike Silva's NYBD:
  

1. "…Mets fans will find particularly interesting:

   …in talking to people around the game today, there is a lot of chatter about how the Yankees are being pressured from investors to cut spending and start delivering a dividend for once… in other words, the Yankees are unable to spend like they used to, and the gravy train may be coming to end, not surprising in this economy… in other words, nothing can last forever, and there is no such thing as an unlimited budget… "(found here)

2. "Our main source down in Tampa just called to tell me that it appears that, sadly, the Yanks are sitting this one out. There appears to be less than a 10% chance that Cashman will make a move of any kind, let alone a major deal. Financial constraints, and not wanting to move any of the prospects, are the two main reasons." (found here)

• Now consider a comment made by Joe Girardi during tonight's postgame report after a 10-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox: “I’m not sure that we have a lot of options at this point, [Mitre] has got to get it done for us.” That's a little concerning. It's one thing not to have a lot of options and quite another to admit that it's the case, especially on a day such as the trade deadline, when every team wants to come off for their fans and for the public as though it is they who are the big winners. To admit that the Yankees don't have a lot of options on a day like today is, could be in a sense, insinuating that Cashman hasn't done his job. I don't see it as that--I see it more as a comment to the effect that Cashman's hands may have been tied--maybe, for whatever reason, he couldn't do much.

• Mets, Cardinals and Cubs fans and bloggers I have talked to have all told me they've heard or read whispers about the Yankees having financial constraints this year. From Yankee fans, I hear mostly that it's hogwash to think so, because, hey, they're the Yankees. Here, however, it's probably important to remember that as Yankee fans we are inherently biased. We don't want to believe that the Yankees can be mortal just as any other organization.

What I'm left with is the notion that taking on the Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira contracts, in edition to those of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and, yes, Kei Igawa, has left the Yankees financially inflexible.

It's true that the Yankees have drawn remarkably well in a bad economy and in one of the coldest and wettest summers in recent memory, but I feel this may only be a mask.

The bigger piece here to consider is the YES network--by far the most successful of any of the regional sports networks. If the Yankees are drawing the revenue from the network that everyone thinks they are drawing, then it should be more of a question of the Yankees choosing not to spend more as opposed to being unable to do so.

Still, the added payroll is no small thing. Just because the Yankees could go out and spend another $30 million doesn't mean that they should. I point to Matthew Cerrone's quote above, where he states that investors are looking for a return on the investment. Investors is a vague term, but it's hard to believe that those responsible for supporting the YES network, such as sponsors or Goldman Sachs, aren't included here.

One must remember that the Yankees don't just have to deal with these massive contracts this year; Posada and Sabathia will take them to 2011; Burnett to 2013; Teixeira to 2015 and Alex Rodriguez to 2017.

There's no doubt that the Yankees right now are helped in that guys such as Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and others are still cost controlled, but the honest truth is that no other team even comes close to what the Yankees have spent.

I don't know if there was more to the Yankees not getting Brian Bannister--such as Kansas City asking for Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero--but if one considers that the Royals traded for Yuniesky Betancourt, it seems odd, indeed.

It's one thing if a Halladay-like $15 million salary is a sticking point--most teams cannot afford that--though the Yankees are theoretically one of the few that can.

It is an entirely different thing when a $650k salary, or when the Pittsburgh Pirates are asked to continue to pay the salary for your utility bench guy with a l'il pop. That is Tampa Bay Rays-ish territory.

Maybe the Yankees have some grand plan for the 2009-2010 offseason, in which they acquire Jason Bay trade with the Nationals for Stephen Strasburg (assuming he ever signs), but the word on the street is that the 2010 free agent class is notable for being thin. Maybe the Yankees hope to pick someone up off of the waiver deadline, but other teams can block waiver deals. That seems a risk, indeed, when Ian Snell, Jarrod Washburn, Brian Bannister et. al. were available this time.


Of course, I don't have access to the Yankees' financial records. This post here is nothing more than speculation at 2.30 AM while the notions are fresh in my mind.

Still, I would urge you to keep your eyes and ears opened.

That the Yankees would have any sort of budget should surprise no one but what may be surprising, however, is to see how tightly the Yankees have stretched it.; history is rife with kings and queens that plunge their country into bankruptcy because they overspend from theoretically limitless coffers. Such are among the causes of the French and Russian revolutions.

It would seem a much less daunting task for financial insolubility to cause trouble for even the exalted Yankees.

Looking at the Yankees on an Off Day

Now that the season is over a month old, there are some judgments that can be made. Although it's too early to know for sure what will hold out and what won't, there are some general trends:

• Whatever the team's problem, it's not the offense.
• The starting pitching can show flashes of brilliance, but has mostly been pretty average.
• The bullpen has two reliable pitchers and the rest are firestarters.

Let's take a more in-depth look, shall we?

The Starting Pitching

Joba strikes out 12. CC pitches a four-hit complete game. Yankee pitching of late has shown flashes of brilliance. Yet, for ever four hit complete game shutout, there's a pitcher that can't get out of the second inning.

The starting pitching was supposed to be the Yankees' strong suit, but it's been mediocre for the most part. While CC looks like all it took was a flip of the calendar page, others in the rotation look decidedly human.

• CC Sabathia: Yankee fans hope the four-hit complete game shut out of the Orioles is a sign of better things to come. That stopper performance is what the Yankees paid to get. Don't pay too much attention to CC's record here; the bullpen has been more than responsible for keeping CC from some more wins.

• AJ Burnett: Started off as the Yankees' stopper, but has faltered a bit since then. The match up on Tuesday against Halladay should be telling. His ERA is skewed because of the eight runs allowed in the one Boston start; other than that he's allowed, going backwards 3, 4, 3, 2 and 2--certainly enough to give his team a chance to win. The Yankees are 4-2 in his starts.

• Andy Pettitte: The Yankees are 4-2 in his starts as well, but his ER total has gone up: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 5. Not entirely surprisingly, the Yanks are 1-2 in his last three starts. Granted, Pettitte is supposed to be the fifth starter, so the Yanks aren't quite looking for utter domination here, but the rising ER totals are not a trend the Yankees would like to see continue.

• Joba Chamberlain: Opponents hit .480 off of him in the first inning, but after that, they're lucky if they reach base. The Yanks are only 3-3 in his starts, but this may perhaps be more the fault of a lack of run support (and, uh, that bullpen) than it is Joba's--he has not allowed more than five runs in a game, and when he did, the Yankees won that game. In the future, he'll probably be the pitcher more like the pitcher that pitched innings two through six against Boston as opposed to the first inning.

• Phil Hughes: Holy small sample size, Batman! Phil Hughes has looked progressively worse each start. It's only three starts, so you can't make much of it, but it's probably not much of a coincidence that Chien Ming Wang will make a rehab start for Scranton tomorrow.

• Chien Ming Wang: Told you it was the foot.

The Starting Line Up

The offense has been working quite nicely here. They've been held to less than four runs no more than five times over the course of nearly thirty games and have not yet been shut out. What's interesting here, though, is while guys like Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira are struggling, others such as Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera have picked up the slack.

• Derek Jeter: Only hitting in the .270s, and this is a little concerning. His OBP is helped by his walks, but his OPS is nearly a hundred points lower than his career average. It's still early in the season, and Jeter struggled early last year, but it's getting to a point where Jeter's offense can no longer mask his not-very-good defense. If this was anyone else, you'd probably see a team trying to trade him while he still has residual value, but this is Derek Jeter. And you don't trade Derek Jeter.

• Johnny Damon: En Fuego. Not only does this guy have a hitting streak, but he has an extra base hit in seven straight games. Yesterday, it won the Yankees the game. Yes, there's a caveat that it's a contract year and he's playing for a contract, but if it helps the Yankees win, how much of a caveat can it be? I'm not sure we'll see 40 home runs from him, but whatever he's eating for breakfast, it's working.
  

• Mark Teixeira: Struggling as all struggling has ever struggled before. Hovering around the Mendoza line is not how he wanted to start out in pinstripes, but perhaps he's beginning to come out of it. The double in the rain to tie the game against Tampa would have been a seminal moment had the Yankees found a way to win the game.

• Alex Rodriguez: One pitch, one home run, and Alex Rodriguez has more home runs than David Ortiz, who did not miss the first 28 games of the season. Alex only has one other hit and has swung at a bunch of pitches out of the strike zone, but no matter how much you rehab, there's nothing quite the same as facing ML starters who have already had a few weeks in real game situations to practice. He might not run well, but he should hit just fine once he's had a few more games.

• Hideki Matsui: Was the Yankees' hottest hitter while A-Rod was still rehabbing. He's cooled down some, but he no longer looks awkward and lost like he did at the beginning of the season. Godzilla's always been fairly streaky; when he's right and protecting Teixeira and A-Rod, there should be some interesting offensive games.

• Nick Swisher: Doesn't like hitting at the New Yankee Stadium. His numbers overall have come way down, more in line with his career numbers as opposed to deity-like. He still seems to work the count every at bat, and guess what? On this team, working the count seems to be contangious. And as long as he keeps being a bon vivant, campaigns such as VoteSwisher.com will continue to have an actual shot at working.

• Robinson Canó: Has cooled off after a torrid April. As per most of his career thus far, he's hitting much better on the road than at home, which may partly be why the Yankees don't seem to have much luck at the new Stadium. Still, if your number 7 hitter hits .300 or better for the most part of the season, you can't find too much to complain about.

• Melky Cabrera: It's too early to call this a breakout season, but it seems to be how this is shaping up. Melky was given a second chance when Gardner couldn't, well, hack it, and he's taken every advantage. It's a small sample size galore thing here, but if he keeps taking pitches like he's taking, the likelihood he'll regress will grow slimmer and slimmer.

• Francisco Cervelli: He's not in there for his bat, and yet, if he doesn't beat out an infield hit yesterday, the Yankees don't win that game. Every time he's interviewed in the clubhouse, he is positively beaming. If only he hadn't missed so much of last season with that wrist injury...

• José Molina: Has a grand slam. Which is cool. And a strained quad. Which is not.

• Jorge Posada: Never injured before the big, bad contract of doom, and now injured twice in two years. At least this is his hamstring and not his shoulder, so he should not be gone for too long. When the Yanks get his bat back, with A-Rod, it's going to be one heck of a line up.

• Brett Gardner: Seems to have gone MIA except for late inning defense. That's what happens when you are given a chance and you can't take advantage. It's also why spring training stats mean nothing.

• Ramiro Peña: Was good enough as a fill in for A-Rod to still be on the ML roster. Didn't hit much but wasn't necessarily an automatic out, and played doable defense. Wouldn't be surprised to see him spell A-Rod or perhaps even Jeter every once in a while.

• Angel Berroa: He's on the Yankees? Since when?

• Xavier Nady: Will attempt some light throwing to see if he can start rehab or if he will need a second Tommy John surgery. The injury didn't seem like a big blow to the Yankees at the time, but depth is only nice when you don't have to use it.

• Kevin Cash: Has yet to make appearance as a Yankee.

The Blow Bullpen

Somehow, someone in the bullpen thought it was a good idea to watch footage of the 2008 Mets and try to emulate them as best as possible. Mariano Rivera and Phil Coke decided that wasn't for them, but they haven't been spotless, either.

• Mariano Rivera: Gave up back to back HRs for the first time in his career to Tampa Bay. He's not injured, apparently, since his command's okay, but his velocity's a bit down. This is probably a repercussion of the shoulder surgery and he should be okay, but it doesn't help that he was, well, so darned good last year.

• Phil Coke: The only other reliable reliever. He's not flashy and he struggled in the beginning of the year, but he has calmed down a lot since then and (generally) gets the job done. In the absence of Bruney, the 8th inning is his.

• Jonathan Albaledejo: Occasionally pitches a bunch of scoreless innings, and occasionally gets tagged. Flip a coin; that's basically what it comes down to.

• Edwar Ramirez: See above.

• José Veras: Last year's seventh inning guy has utterly no command this year. Aside from one good performance against Oakland, has shown absolutley nothing to suggest he can get batters out. What's even more frustrating is that he's out of options, so the Yankees are basically stuck.

• Dámaso Marte: Why did the Yanks wait so long before DLing him? Such things continue to blow my mind.

• David Robertson: Good when throwing strikes. Doesn't always throw them, however.

• Mark Melancon: Needs more time at AAA, believe it or not. Kid's still young and coming off of TJ surgery. He'll be fine, but just not yet. Right now, it's about building the confidence so he's not afraid to throw strikes.

• Brett Tomko: Heard the debut didn't go so well, but was dealing with an awful migraine at the time so I missed it.

• Alfredo Aceves: the Mexican Gangsta may yet save the bullpen. The reason he didn't pitch in Hughes' debacle was because the Yanks weren't sure if Joba could start. Since Joba could and did start, Aceves should be raring to go the next time a starter fails.

• Bruney, Bruney, o where art thou Brian Bruney?
  

MLB Power Rankings Week Five

While the Mets have won seven straight, no doubt partly due to the help of removing Oliver Perez from the rotation, other teams have fallen back to earth. They just aren't named Toronto or Los Angeles.

30. Cleveland Indians: What's this season like for the Indians? All you have to do is watch Curtis Granderson robbing Grady Sizemore of what would have otherwise been a game-winning walk off home run.

29. Baltimore Orioles: Koji Uehara's actually pretty good. The rest of the pitching staff? Not so much. This team would be ranked higher, but all of the other four teams in the division thus far all have a legitimate shot at the division and the wildcard (even if TAM and NYY need to pick up the pace), which Baltimore doesn't really.

28. Washington Nationals: They beat the Dodgers and stopped their home winning streak. That's enough to bump 'em up to 28. Oh, and they're apparently interested in Steven Strasburg. Maybe you've heard of the kid. Pitched a no-hitter with 17 (yes, 17) strikeouts...

27. Oakland Athletics: Is Ryan Sweeney the only Athletic that's ever heard the term "hitting for power?" Granted, losing to the Blue Jays these days isn't the most horrible thing on the planet, but in a year where Anaheim has been severely weakened, the A's have had a golden opportunity and they have not taken advantage.

26. Pittsburgh Pirates: Thanks to Milwaukee, they have come firmly back to earth. Still, life for Pittsburgh fans must be that much easier knowing that a) life's easier the lower you keep expectations, and b) once hockey season's over, football training camp is only a few weeks away.

25. Colorado Rockies: Even San Francisco, which can win two out of three games while scoring only five runs (no, really), has a better record that these guys. Right now it seems like 2007 was just a fluke.

24. San Diego Padres: It's basically a tie between San Diego and Arizona, but since San Diego has lost three in a row...to the Astros...Arizona gets the nod. Let me rephrase in case you didn't quite get that: the Padres lost three in a row. To the Astros.

23. Arizona Diamondbacks: Those of you that had Arizona in the first manager to get fired pool, CONGRATULATIONS! The new manager's tenure hasn't exactly gotten off to a blazing start, either, which would lead one to believe that the problem here might not actually have to do with the manager.

22. Houston Astros: Hey, they swept the Padres!

21. Tampa Bay Rays: Over the Red Sox, they ride rough shod. Over everyone else, not so much. While they took 2/2 from the Yankees, over all the team is still struggling. It's a little weird since Longoria is our new overlord raking, but BJ Upton is only hitting .168, and when your lead off man can't get on base, things tend to not work out so well.

20. Chicago White Sox: I don't know if they actually belong here, but I do know that they're two games over .500 and the scapegoat appears to be (again) José Contreras.

19. Minnesota Twins: No idea what they're up to, except that they've got Mauer back and Slowey doesn't throw anything that's not a strike.

18. Atlanta Braves: Getting McCann back should help, but should is a funny word. The Yankees should be a good team, etc.

17. New York Yankees: Five game losing streaks help nobody. Getting A-Rod back helps the offense, but it doesn't do much for the starters who have been largely under par, or the bullpen. CC on Friday was what the Yankees paid him to be and Joba has to figure out that first inning. At least he's acknowledged that it's an issue: the first step to solving a problem, they say, is admitting you have one.

16. Seattle Mariners: At 16-16, they've come back to earth. It's still not as awful as last season, but it's much more in line with what could be expected from this team. Is it me or does Griffey hit a HR on Mother's Day every year?

15. Philadelphia Phillies: I don't know what the Phillies did this week, except that I thought Cole Hamels was hurt, except, apparently, he's not.

14. San Francisco Giants: So what if they have no offense? A win is a win is a win, right? The interesting part will be seeing how long San Francisco can keep this up.

13. Anaheim Angels: They're finding ways to win, and should be able to get some of their pitching staff back pretty soon. That that team has been able to tread water despite everything that's gone down says a lot about its character. Other injury plagued teams could take notice.

12. Cincinnati Reds: They have a negative run differential, but only three teams in the NL have fewer runs allowed. Anyway, as the run differential is -6, all it takes is one really good game to change that.

11. Florida Marlins: It seems obvious now that Florida's hot start was the responsibility of the Washington Nationals. They have to get Ricky Nolasco right, even if only for the sake of my fantasy teams.

10. Texas Rangers: They've taken over first place in the AL West, and trail only Toronto and Boston in the AL in runs scored. Imagine if they had kept Volquez...

9. Chicago Cubs: Losing two out of three to Milwaukee hurts, but probably not as much as losing Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano. That just looked painful. The Cubbies are here because of their current record, but the next few weeks may be long ones, indeed.

8. Kansas City Royals: They're riding Greinke's hot streak for all it's worth, and in a division like the AL Central, it can work. Greinke did just lose his first of the year, but with the way he's been pitching those losses will come few and far between.

7. Milwaukee Brewers: I don't know of many teams out there that are more fun to watch right now than Milwaukee. They're putting a slow start behind them, and they took two of three from the Cubs.

6. New York Mets: This is quite a rise, and perhaps the largest ever in the rankings, but dude, it happens when you win seven in a row. Moving Oliver Perez to the bullpen and then the DL has been magic. Now, if only the team could get Johan a little more run support, they'd be golden.

5. Detroit Tigers: I know I'm going to shock some putting the Tigers this high, but let's face it: Verlander, Jackson and Porcello have been on fire. Sabathia's four-hit complete game shut out on Friday was good, but it wasn't the best in the league--that was Verlander's two hit shutout of the Indians. This is the team everyone thought Detroit was getting last year. Only better.

4. Boston Red Sox: Being 5-0 against the Yankees helps here, but that's not to say the wins have been blowouts or anything close to it. The one team Boston seems to have a problem with is Tampa, but they've already played ten times, and after an upcoming west coast trip this month, Boston doesn't go back there the rest of the year. The schedule is on the BoSox side.

3. St. Louis Cardinals: Only 5-5 in their last ten, but still one of the best teams in the league; especially in the NL. Rick Ankiel's date with the wall last week was terrifying--I am sure there are many who are glad to know that he is okay.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: They're here because a) of the proportion of games they have played against the NL West, and b) they just lost Manny for 50 games. Manny might be an idiot (okay, he is an idiot), but the Dodgers have enough young pitching talent that they should be able to withstand the omission.

1. Toronto Blue Jays: They keep winning, and have shown no signs of slowing down. Playing the Yankees this week for three could be a test, but the Yankees are 5-11 against AL East opponents this year. With the Red Sox and Rays continuing to beat up on each other, and the Yanks stagnating, the Jays could find a way to make this work.

MLB Power Rankings Week Four

A month into the season it's still too early to say which teams are for real for real and which ones are not, but it's been long enough that we've got a fair idea as to where teams are headed.

While the Pirates have regressed to what's more expected of them, the Toronto Jays are still winning, and the Seattle Mariners look like the team they were supposed to be last year.

Here are the totally arbitrary rankings for this week:

30. Washington Nationals Dude, okay, here's the deal. Unless this team can get their winning .pct, say, over .350, they aren't leaving the basement. A month into the season, it's pretty clear that not only are the Nationals the worst team in the league, there's not really any competition.

29. Baltimore Orioles Look whose come back to earth! The Yankees may never be able to beat their kryptonite, but the other teams in the division don't seem to find it much of an issue. Has the Wieters watch officially begun yet?

28. Colorado Rockies Second most losses in the league after the Nationals. Right now it's hard to believe this team went to the World Series just two years ago. They are already 7.5 back of the Dodgers, and while teams have come back from this deficit, they don't tend to do it very often.

27. Cleveland Indians Welcome to the bigs, Matt LaPorta: in his first ML at bat, LaPorta struck out against a Justin Verlander who was throwing gas: 10 K in five innings, and pitches that reached 100 mph in the 7th inning. Some day down the line LaPorta might be able to hit those pitches. For now, he should enjoy being the one exciting thing about the Indians, knocking the Carl Pavano injury over/under bets off the table.

26. Oakland Athletics I have to be honest. They're playing kind of like how I expected the Jays to play, what with the no offense and all. They're the only American League team to have not scored 100 runs, and even in the National League, where there are five teams to have not broken the plateau, two of them--the Reds and the Giants--have the pitching to pull it off.

25. Houston Astros Won a series in Atlanta, but there's still not a whole lot of confidence in this team. The NL Central, however, right now is so bunched together that this team isn't out of it--not in the way some of the other teams are. If management ever knew what they were doing, the team could have a run...but that'd be asking a lot.

24. San Diego Padres Some teams can get away with having, to this point, scored only 100 runs or less. The Padres, as evidenced by the 125 runs allowed, do not. 125 RA is still better than many other teams (I'm looking at you, NY Yankees), but there's a reason the game has an offensive component, as well.

23. Tampa Bay Rays Does winning (another) series against Boston turn it around for the Rays? The Tampa/St. Pete faithful have to hope so. Two games against NY this week should be more telling.

22. Los Angeles Angels Usually, these days, if you're taking a tie game in the Bronx to the later innings, you'll probably beat the Yankees. That is, unless your bullpen happens to be the only one in the majors that's, uh, somehow worse.

21. Arizona Diamondbacks Surprisingly, they have actually scored more runs than the Giants. The problem is, they don't have Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain among their starting pitchers.

20. New York Mets Johan Santana is basically a guaranteed win once ever five days. So when you blow a Santana start, you're really shooting yourself in the foot. Word on the street is Ollie Perez is headed to the bullpen, but unlike Joba Chamberlain crosstown, Perez probably won't be the best set up man in the league.

19. Atlanta Braves There's no way around it: losing Brian McCann hurts. Losing a series to the hapless Astros might hurt even more.

18. Pittsburgh Pirates So they've finally come back to earth, though, for most Pirate fans, going .500 would probably be a cause to celebrate. After so many losing seasons in a row, you can't really shake the air of inevitability.

17. San Francisco Giants I know they have a winning record, but these guys are last in runs scored in the league and it's not really close. I know Lincecum and Cain are good, and Zito hasn't been, well, awful of late, but you do still have to score at least some runs to win on any consistent basis.

16. Chicago White Sox Every time I am reminded that the Yankees got Nick Swisher for the cost of Wilson Betemit, I laugh a little. Okay, I'm lying. I laugh a lot.

15. Minnesota Twins Hey, they got Mauer back, and he hit a HR in his first AB, too. Face of the franchise, or what?

14. Texas Rangers Ranked a little high because I watched the game last night and I liked what I saw. Ian Kinsler grows on me every time I see him play. If only these guys stopped trading their pitchers...

13. Milwaukee Brewers Movin' on up in the world. That tends to happen when you start winning, and the Brewers are now over .500.

12. Philadelphia Phillies What I've kinda noticed, these past couple of years, is that the Phillies kind of amble on for most of the season, and then, at the precise moment that the Mets decide to collapse, they start winning. A ton. Still, losing Cole Hamels is a huge blow, and it remains to be seen how, or even if, this team recovers.

11. Cincinnati Reds This team plays in a bandbox. So where the heck did all of this pitching come from? While Cueto-Volquez-Harang might not be as dominant as Maddox-Glavine-Smoltz, it's still a whole lot of fun to watch.

10. Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander has emerged as Zach Greinke's #1 early Cy Young race challenger. If only the rest of the pitching staff--including the bullpen--could pick it up, these guys wouldn't be looking up at Kansas City for much longer.

9. Florida Marlins So these guys have come back to earth. They're still a different team, but the early season stats were inflated by playing the hapless Nationals six times. They're still in first place in the NL East, and as long as the Mets and Braves continue to struggle, they could pose a significant challenge.

8. New York Yankees In 24 games played, this team has failed to score four or more runs just three times. Despite Teixeira's below-Mendoza-line average, the offense is not this team's problem. If they ever did figure out a way to get the bullpen fixed, the Yankees might very well be unstoppable. The win on Friday evening against the Angels has to be considered one of the best wins all season.

7. Chicago Cubs These guys were probably really happy to stop facing St. Louis. However, Zambrano going down with an injury, for any length of time, has got to be weighing on the Wrigley faithful.

6. Kansas City Royals It's not enough that Greinke right now would win the AL Cy Young by a Cliff Lee-like landslide; the Royals had to go and be the only team, so far, to take a series from the Blue Jays. It's still hard to tell if the team has the offense to be for real for real, but when your runs allowed are tied for the second fewest in the league (by one run), you can get away with it.

5. Boston Red Sox The Yankees can't beat Baltimore; the Red Sox can't beat Tampa in Tampa. There's always one team like that. Right now, David Ortiz looks so done that cooking any more may set the whole grill on fire. Okay, bad pun, but still, when you walk the bases loaded to face Ortiz, there are some issues there that need to be addressed.

4. Seattle Mariners This is the team everyone thought they were getting last year, what with the pitching and the hitting and the young studs...José Lopez has something like two walk off hits in three games. My fantasy teams thank him.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers Best record and best run differential in the league. To be fair, they're getting some help from the rest of the division--the second place Giants (yes, you read that right) are only 12-11. Still, the Dodgers, at least, we knew had the potential to be legitimate. The guys sitting in the 2 slot...

2. Toronto Blue Jays While losing the series in Kansas City--the first time all season that they've lost a series--could be attributed to having to face the unstoppable Zach Greinke, this team looks more and more like it's for real. They're still leading the league in runs scored, and it's not really all that close, and are tied for the second-best run differential (the Dodgers have the best). The question you should be asking, is how did this team come out of nowhere? Did anyone--even Jays fans--see it coming?

1. St. Louis Cardinals They're a game shy of the best record in baseball right now, but if you don't like the way these guys have been playing you are probably not much of a baseball fan. Or you're a Cubs fan. Pujols already has 9 HR and 29 RBI.

The Big, Bad Yankee Problem No One's Talking about...yet

This weekend's sweep in Boston left many of the Yankees' immediate weaknesses exposed:

A beat up bullpen
A phantom in center field
A big bad black hole of doom at the bottom of the line up
Starting pitching that didn't so much pitch as throw the ball somewhere in the vicinity of home plate, and prayed.

Yet, these problems are, when you think about it, not necessarily all that bad.

When Alex Rodriguez returns from the line up, it should take care of the big bad black hole of doom at the bottom of the line up.

If Cashman wanted, he could probably sign Mike Cameron for a reasonable amount and receive an upgrade over Melky and Gardner in center field.

The bullpen's a mess because Bruney's hurt, though this should be a relatively minor injury, and Mark Melancon certainly impressed tonight. When the starters start giving more innings, the bullpen will be in much better shape.

There's no reason the starting pitching can't get its act together, either. Power pitchers-and the Yanks have three in their rotation-can take a while to heat up. We all know how CC struggled last April.


These problems exist, and frustrate, but they are not the end of the world.


However, the Yankees do have a much bigger issue to contend with, and it only takes a little digging to see what it is.

Derek Jeter's contract is up in 2010--the end of next season.

This, itself, is a big enough problem already.

Jeter's power declined enough last season that many fans considered him a GIDP machine, and they weren't the only one. This season, except when Girardi has opted to play both Gardner and Cabrera, Jeter has hit lead-off, to avoid the DPs.

He is showing more power this season, early though it is, than he did last season, but there is no guarantee that it will last.

What's more, no team has ever won a World Series with a starting shortstop aged 35 or older.

Then, of course, there's Jeter's defense, which, Andrew Fletcher of Scott Proctor's Arm has generously described as "past a diving Jeter"...



Now, imagine for a moment that the Yankees are not playing sentimental, that they are thinking long term and elect not to resign Jeter, or not to resign him for any longer than one year.

Guess what wonderful task the Yankees are then faced with?

Replacing Derek Jeter.

So, if you're Yankee management, which of these kids would you want replacing Jeter?

Straight from the Baseball America 2009 Prospect Handbook

Carmen Angelini? He's #1 on the depth chart. Good, right? Well, he's playing for low-A Charleston right now and has made an error in all but three games this season. It's gone from amusing, to worrying, to worrying and vaguely amusing. Angelini's still young-born in 1988-but even Jesus Montero was not this much of a defensive ornamental fountain last year.

Garrison Lassiter? He's #2, and also at Low A. He's putting together a nice average...but I repeat: he's at Low A.

Eduardo Nuñez is at AA, and is hitting .258. The season's still young and anything can happen-kid is still young-but someone hitting .258 at AA does not a Derek Jeter replacement portend.

Fourth on the depth chart is the guy currently wasting away on the Yankee bench: Ramiro Peña. Peña's certainly got the glove for the position, but unless he starts playing every day, his bat won't get the chance to develop like it should. For the moment, he's the most likable of all the guys listed here.



Now, I should be very clear about this: there is no replacing Derek Jeter.

Jeter's the guy whose name you utter when you are talking Yankee greats: Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Berra, Mantle, Mattingly, Jeter.

They may-I repeat MAY-one day replace his production, and they can certainly replace his defense, but in terms of other intangibles, it's not possible.

So in that regard, the Yankees would be foolish if they were trying to find someone that can replace Jeter as Captain.


They still, however, need to replace Jeter as shortstop and right now the options aren't too appealing.

Granted, it's still early and the young guys have a lot of developing left to do.

The Yankees could decide to use some of their overstocked pitching talent to pursue a trade, but any other GM worth his (or her) salt will probably up the price considerably.

The Yankees could sign a free agent. The list is here. It's not a very promising list. Most teams will do anything to keep their SS worth their salt since it's such a thin position. José Reyes is probably the best on the list and he's a franchise player for the Mets.

The Yankees could-and probably will-resign Jeter, though that might be their worst option. If his glove won't play at shortstop, the only other realistic option is DH-which his bat can't really carry in the American League, especially if the other option is (and it probably will be) Jorge Posada.

For 2009 at least, Jeter remains the Yankee shortstop and the Yankee captain, but while possible heirs to Mariano Rivera (Mark Melancon), Jorge Posada (Jesus Montero/Austin Romine) and Andy Pettitte (Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Take your pick) are at least beginning to emerge from the shadows, Jeter's situation is much murkier.


If the Yankees do not already have a plan in place for November 2010, they need to figure one oout.

The sooner, the better.

How I Could (and Do) Like the Yankees

Over the weekend, while seeing relatives I see on average once every ten years, there were some questions that kept getting asked:

"So what are you doing?"

"Do you enjoy grad school?"

"Sports? Really?"

"Ugh, the Yankees? How could you like the Yankees?"

Both sides of my family, if you go back far enough, have Brooklyn--and thus Dodgers--connections. When the Dodgers were replaced by the Mets, the transition was (or, seems to have been) seamless: Dodgers fans, who by the very definition could never become Yankees fans, switched to the Mets instead of trying to keep track of a team all the way out in California.

So the question becomes: how does someone in this family become a Yankee fan?

The answer-the long and true answer-is a complicated thing, with direct and indirect causes.

For example, consider this: the very first Yankee game I ever watched on TV was the 1996 Jeffrey Maier game, and I remember it only because at the time it was unheard of for our family to watch baseball at the dinner table. My brother must have said something, the game went on the TV and I was momentarily transfixed without understanding its real significance.

I hadn't much cared for the Yankees except for that my fourth-grade teacher, the one we all said was a witch and hid a dead cat in the cupboard hated the Yankees and would make those wearing Yankee shirts turn them inside out, so on the last day of school we all wore Yankee shirts, just to spite her. It was so worth it, even as it is fourteen years later.

Still, when the Yankees made the World Series that year, somewhere along the line I had to realize what was happening.

I knew nothing about the Yankees except that they had some rookie shortstop named Derek Jeter, and a young pitcher named Andy Pettitte, and I knew nothing about the Braves except that they were supposed to be unbeatable. Still, my mind was a little too rational at the time: I knew it was a best-of-seven series.

When my dad drove me to school the morning after game two, I asked if the Yankees had won the game the night before-I wasn't allowed to stay up and had yet to learn as I would in not-so-much later years that games are, in fact, also broadcast on radio, and since my clock was also a radio...

My dad's response was simple: "Of course not." Of course the Yankees didn't win. There was no way they could win.

I was confused. "Isn't it a best of seven?" I asked.

"Yes," he said.

"So doesn't that mean that they [Atlanta] have to win four games?"

"Yes," he said, "but the Yankees aren't going to win."


Chances are, if you're reading this post, you know how that turned out.



I didn't follow baseball much after that until 1998, when I came home from summer camp and asked my brother how the Yankees were doing.

"If they don't win the World Series," he said, "it would be a major shock."

So that October, I watched.

I watched them sweep Texas, I watched them fall behind to Cleveland (thank you Chuck Knoblauch) and then overtake them, I watched as my brother decreed the new Cuban import El Duque as his favorite because of the leg kick (I picked Paul O'Neil. It was the hair.).

I watched as my math teacher's mood was solely based on how the Yankees performed the night before--and I must admit, I picked up the habit.

I watched the Yankees fall behind in game one of the World Series to San Diego, with my parents in the family room. I watched as Tino Martinez stepped up to the plate and my dad said that his .125 postseason batting average was really good. I told him it was not, and one full count later, I watched as Tino launched one into the right-field upper deck. I wanted to scream for joy, but my other brother was fast asleep, so I screamed silently, trying not to jump up and down too much so the dog-we had one then-wouldn't bark.

I watched as El Duque shut the door early in game two, and I watched as the Yankees took two on the West Coast to nab crown number twenty-four.

You could say that the rest is history.

You don't not become a Yankees fan after watching that, even if you don't entirely understand what is going on or why Scott Brosius is the most unlikely of all playoff heroes or what's so special about Trevor Hoffman or what going 125-50 really means.

I didn't understand why the Yankees traded David Wells, who had pitched a perfect game, to Toronto for Roger Clemens in the offseason, but I remember the look my brother gave me when I dared to express my opinion.

I had a lot to learn, but I was hooked.


We all know what happened since then: a threepeat of championships at the cost of an impoverished farm system that led to the current "drought" (something other teams might consider a minor dry spell).

I cried in 2001, not just because the Yankees lost but because of the circumstances surrounding it-by then Mariano Rivera had filled the role as favorite player. The best memory from that year was Game Five in the world series, thinking there was no way the Yankees could hit another bottom-of-the-ninth two out two run home run...and then they did. There was still some baseball magic in New York.

In 2003, Aaron Boone provided such jubilation-and such a catharsis-that the only thing I remember about that World Series is Jorge Posada making the final out. Even six years later, the World Series seems almost trivial when compared to Aaron Boone.

In 2004, I didn't cry. I couldn't cry. I was angry and at the same time, once the Yankees lost game four, some part of me knew it was going to happen, and once it did, there was a release. The Red Sox had won and the world hadn't ended, and once the curse was broken, it was broken. No longer could Sox fans retain righteous indignation and the downtrodden loser identity that had been theirs for so long.

As a Yankee fan I've never known bad years, not in the ways I have as a Nets and a Jets fan, or in the ways that Cubs fans have for so long.

Last year was a disappointing year, but all things considered, in the end not nearly the collapse some would have you believe.

The thing is, however, even if the Yankees went and lost 100 games in a season, I would still be a Yankees fan.

Becoming a fan of a sports team is more or less, in my mind, like becoming right-handed or left-handed. There's a brief period of time at the very beginning where you can choose, but if you're serious about it, once the choice is made, it's final.

So I've developed an affection for Brooklyn, and Jackie and Pee Wee and Branch, and even for the Cubs, and Ernie Banks and the Ivy and Harry Carey, but I will never be a Dodgers fan or a Cubs fan.

Being a Yankee fan has become as much a part of my identity as there is Brooklyn in my grandmother.

It doesn't take a whole lot to become a fan of a certain team-just the right thing happening at the right time-but once it happens, there it is, good and finalized. You may as well have been genetically altered.

I suspect when I die, should they do an autopsy, you'll find navy blue pinstripes coursing through my veins...

Off Day Observations

With today as an off day, I thought it'd make sense to go through and address the Yankees, and issues surrounding the Yankees, thus far. We're only in Week Three of the season, so many issues now may not actually be issues over the long run while other larger issues have yet to reveal themselves.

First, the Lineup

As a whole, the Yankee offense has been largely dependable. They have scored four or more runs in all but one game, and that includes the 22-4 and 15-5 losses. Whatever the faults of the pitching in those games, the offense, by and large, did its job.

There are some concerns about the ability to score with RISP, but I still think it's a little too early to be overly concerned. Perhaps a little concern, but I think it was a much bigger issue last year when the offense struggled to score runs at all. It's also worth remembering that the Yankees have not had A-Rod in the line up yet this season, and they have been performing without Xavier Nady's bat for a week, and they've still won more games than they've lost.

• Derek Jeter: He was mired in a mini-slump of sorts to start the season, but whereas last year it took him until May to notch his first home run, this year he has four already. You can't even argue it's the new Yankee Stadium's fault as the Yankees have played more games on the road than at home. Jeter's always had a knack for being clutch, but it seems, perhaps this year more than others, he is providing the right hits at exactly the right moments.

• Johnny Damon: Seems to be doing fine as a two-hitter. At the very least, he's not GIDP'ing, which was the worry with Jeter in the spot. He still has the eye of a lead off man, and between him, Teixeira and Swisher, some of the younger guys may never know what it means to swing at a first pitch.

• Mark Teixeira has admitted to being a slow starter, and his .222 average points to him being a man of his word. Even with the low average, however, he still has 9 RBI and if you haven't noticed his awesome defense, dude, you must have never watched the Yankees with Jason Giambi.

• Jorge Posada: Shoulder? What shoulder? He is playing as though 2008 was just an illusion, picking up right where he left off in 2007. Despite his .286 average, he is tied for the team lead in RBI with Nick Swisher (yes, you read that right), which suggests that he's making the hits he does get count. What's more, and I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed this, his throwing arm seems to be stronger than it was back in 2007, when it was supposedly healthy. I know 37-year-old arms aren't supposed to magically get better, but in the world of baseball, that is hardly the strangest thing to have ever happened.

• Robinson Canó: What a difference a fast start makes! Last season he got into a hole he could not get out of; this season he is playing like the all star everyone expected him to be. Whatever the wake up call, whether it was the benching or not, it worked. He's still not hitting a ton of home runs, and he probably never will, but getting on base is still getting on base, and right now, leading the Yankees in hits and BA, and second (again, to Swisher) in OBP, he seems to be doing that just fine.

• Nick Swisher: Most people guessed that Swisher's year last year was simply a fluke, except, apparently, the White Sox. You probably can't call Swisher-for-Betemit one of the most lopsided trades ever, since it's not, but through the first couple of weeks it certainly seemed like it. Even while Swisher's BA comes back to earth, he still leads the team with a .433 OBP because, hey, a walk's as good as a hit in this game. He is perhaps not the greatest right fielder in the history of the game, but given everything else he's given the team this year, from his rock star personality to his 0.00 ERA, it seems not to matter so much. Anyway, since every ball that's been hit to right field at the new Stadium seems to be a home run, you could probably put an ornamental fountain in right and not even notice.

• Hideki Matsui: Mired in an awful slump at the beginning of the year and looked awkward and uncomfortable at bat, but of late seems to be coming out of it. An effective Matsui, even if just as DH, is an invaluable resource and depth-stretcher for the Yankees. Right now he looks best not playing every day and that may simply be what the Yankees need to do to keep him effective.

• Brett Gardner: All you usually ask of your nine hitter is to not be an automatic out. Gardner, for the most part, is complying. If he had just that little bit more power it would be all things awesome, but as it is, he provides speed on the bases and gets on base just often enough to matter.
  

• Cody Ransom: The anti-Brett Gardner, or so it would seem. It'd be one thing if he was a pitcher and then a team could carry his non-existant bat, but as it is right now the answer to the question "why do you miss Alex Rodriguez" can be summed up in two words: "Cody Ransom." Dude's got a mean vertical, but he hasn't even played the type of defense you need for a 3B and that probably explains why he is a career minor leaguer.

• José Molina: Just as he was last year, all catch and no hit. Once Alex Rodriguez comes back the no-hit bit may not be such a big problem, but right now the Yankees can't really afford to keep both him and Ransom in the same line up. However, with A-Rod due back in a week, I am fairly certain the Yankees will survive.

• Melky Cabrera: All you need to know is that despite hitting two HRs yesterday, he still struck out twice including once with the bases loaded and nobody out, where he swung at a pitch way, way out of the strike zone. He has pockets of brilliance but hasn't (yet) shown enough to be the everyday starting CF, especially after last season. Still, it's far too soon to give up on him. If Canó can turn it around, than maybe so can Melky. His ceiling isn't nearly as high, but it really won't take much for him to be better than he was last year.

• Xavier Nady: Nady is the guy whose bat you never notice when it's in the line up, but made all the more noticeable by its absence. Losing his bat may not have the same repercussions as losing Teixeira's bat or Posada's bat, but it would be folly to think that there are none. Lucky for the Yankees, he supposedly doesn't need surgery and with luck will be back before the fourth of July.

• Ramiro Peña: Billed as all-glove and no-hit, and so far, in his limited appearances, has lived up to exactly that. I wouldn't mind seeing him kept on the roster for late inning defense once A-Rod returns, but he would benefit more by being sent down and getting a chance to play every day.

Next, the Starting Pitching

Thus far the starting pitching has varied from being so-horrible-it-would-be-comical-if-it-wasn't-so-horrible to pure clinics that all high school players should be told to watch.

The horrible starts are almost all the responsibility of one Chien Ming Wang, while right now Andy Pettitte, who has been as solid as he's ever been, and AJ Burnett, who varies from spectacular to spectacularly wild, are carrying the rotation. For their parts, CC Sabathia and Joba Chamberlain are both doing enough to give the team a chance to win every time they are out there, even though the bullpen has, on more than one occasion, rendered them decisionless, and not in a good way.

In other words, with the exception of CMW, there is no need to worry too much about the starting pitching. CC and Joba should only get better, and if Andy and AJ keep doing as they are doing, there is no reason this team shouldn't win four of every five games.

• CC Sabathia: As his 13.50 ERA last April would attest, this simply isn't his month. His start yesterday was actually worse than his Opening Day gig in terms of runs allowed, but the Yankee offense bailed him out every step of the way so one might be forgiven if he or she doesn't notice. Still, the Yankees have won two of his four starts and in all likelihood should have won a third, and that's what a true ace does: give you a chance to win, even on his bad days.

• Chien Ming Wang: Ayayay. IMO, it's probably still the foot--MLB TV had a great piece on how his delivery's altered because he won't put the same pressure on his injured foot--but now one has to ask if there's a confidence issue as well. Guys that win 19 games two years in a row don't suddenly forget how to pitch; there is an underlying cause somewhere. He will get back to normal eventually, but for the moment the Yankees have to play as if he won't.

• AJ Burnett: Is just really fun to watch, even if he's walking seven in a game. He's been the Yankees' stopper every step of the way, and while that's not necessarily fair to him, he is excelling in that role. He will lose a game eventually--even Cliff Lee did last year--but until he does, one can just sit back, relax and enjoy it. His start against Boston on Saturday should be great baseball.

• Andy Pettitte: Over the offseason I kept saying that it would be foolish to expect Pettitte to pull a Mike Mussina in 2009. I was right, except I was wrong. Pettitte hasn't exactly pulled a Mussina--he was never as bad in '08 as Mussina was in '07--but he was pitching on a sore shoulder (apparently) and at the end of '08 it showed. Now that he's healthy again, he's pitching like vintage Pettitte, getting the outs when he needs them, never trying to do too much, and backing up AJ's starts with poise and awesome Pettitte-ness.

• Joba Chamberlain: What does the poor kid have to do to get a decision? Okay, so we're only three weeks into the season...but hey, you know what? He's doing exactly what your fifth starter should do: giving the team a chance to win, and he will (or should, anyway) only get better from here on out. The argument now isn't whether or not he has the 'stuff' to be a starter but whether or not his arm can hold up, thus the innings limit. So far, so good.

Next, the Bullpen

Bullpens are finicky things. One year they're fine, the next they're not and you, dear GM, may have not even lifted a finger.

In 2008 Girardi was almost universally praised for his handling of the bullpen; in 2009 he's getting chided for micro-managing and thus invariably running into the one 'pen guy of the day that simply doesn't have it.

Still, for every 15-5 or 22-4 loss, there's the 14-inning win without a bona fide long man.

What this means is that right now, it is utterly impossible to make any sense out of the bullpen. They're either being really really good or really really bad, and not really much in between. Go figure.

• Jonathan Albaladejo: Has mostly been great. The one bad outing is, alas, the one you tend to remember, but he seems to be turning into a very dependable arm from out of the bullpen. He started the season fairly low on the bullpen ladder, but is working his way upwards.

• Edwar Ramirez: I haven't seen a whole lot of him this season. Maybe it's just that I'm missing the games where he comes into pitch, I don't know, but the old rules with him seem to be in force: when someone guesses right on the change up, it's usually a home run, and he's pretty much okay as long as he's not facing the Angels.

• Phil Coke: Had a rough, and I mean rough, start to the year, but he has seemed to calm down in his more recent appearance. Could it be nerves? I still think he needs some more time before we can pass judgement on him. At any rate, he's another lefty out of the pen, and one seemingly much less fragile than Dámaso Marte.

• Dámaso Marte: May yet be okay, but his struggles right now are a little worrying given that he is supposed to be the lefty specialist. It's a little to reminiscent of Mike Myers in 2007. However, he's signed for three years (and probably really glad he signed when he did), so whatever's going on, the Yankees will try to fix.

• José Veras: Yesterday's three inning stint could be billed as the redemption of José Veras. He has filthy, nasty stuff when his command is there, but as we all know, that's not always the case. With luck, yesterday's affair got him back on track. If he's pitching well, and Bruney and Mo do their thing, the Yankees are back to six inning games, and we know how well that turned out the last time they could do that...

• Brian Bruney: Has become the go-to eighth inning guy. Something happened between 2007 and 2008 where he made himself over, and one could very easily see 2009 as a progression of what he was doing in 2008 at the very beginning and end of the year when his foot was healthy. He's probably bound to give up a lead sometime, as every reliever is, but what will be more telling is how he bounces back. For the moment, he has made the set-up decision much easier for Girardi and co. to make.

• Mariano Rivera: So I want to say he seems to be getting hit a little more this year than last year but last year was so unbelievable that he'd have to be utterly perfect not to be getting hit more. What matters is that he hasn't walked anyone or given up a run, and given that he always seems to struggle a bit in April, before it really gets warm out, there's no sense worrying. He pitched a scoreless inning in a tie game yesterday, which might even suggest that he may yet be better this year than last year.

Finally, we have Other Yankees Issues

• Empty seats at Yankee Stadium: If the Yankees haven't taken notice that no one can afford the $2500 seats behind home plate, they probably should, and soon. However, before one freaks out about empty seats in the rest of the Stadium, please remember it's April. The weather's still more crap than nice in New York and school is still in session. If the seats are still this empty in June, then the Yankees have a major issue. Another question: why haven't they sold the SRO tickets yet? Granted, it's only recently that the Yankees were selling out each and every game. They probably would still be doing so this year if not for that nasty little thing called the Recession.

• The Bandbox: There are all sorts of reasons for the home runs flying out of Yankee Stadium. The answer is probably a little bit of everything-sloped angle of the seats, a wind tunnel created by the old Stadium in the background, running into a very good Cleveland line up (even if their record indicates otherwise) and, until the last couple of days, exceptionally dry air. Again, it's early. If the home runs are still flying out like this in June, then eyebrows should be raised. I don't mind the home runs, but in the long run it could be harmful towards building a pitching staff-just look at the Rockies.

So that's it for now. Enjoy the off day.

It's the Most Wonderful Day of the Year...well, Except for the Weather

There is nothing, and I mean nothing, in American sports as wonderful as Opening Day!

Of course, given the rain and snow today that is more or less soaking the entire country, you'd never know it. Already two games have been postponed (CHW/KC and BOS/TB) and I'd be a little shocked if they played ball in Saint Louis.

This begs the simple question: Why do so many Opening Day games take place in cold weather cities, where there are no domed or retractable roofs?

It hasn't been until recently that Opening Day started this early in April (in non-WBC years it's April 1 or earlier), but the fact is, early April weather is a gamble in a lot of places, not least of which is New York.

In the American League, Tampa, Toronto, Minnesota (this year only), Seattle, Oakland, Los Angeles and Texas all either play in warm or warm(er) weather or with domed/retractable roofs. That's seven teams in a fourteen-team league--exactly half. That would make it entirely possible to hold Opening Day games and opening series all in warm weather or indoor locations, where weather would likely not be a factor. It's true, Minnesota's moving into a new, outdoor and roofless (in Minnesota, huh?) park next year, which would mean one AL series would have to take place in questionable weather, but even then, a city like Baltimore is far less of a gamble than, say, Kansas City.

In the National League, Milwaukee, Houston, Atlanta, San Francisco, San Diego, Arizona and Los Angeles all are warm weather or have retractable roofs--I've left Florida off the list because of the propensity to rain. Seven teams in a sixteen team league is a little less than half, but if two non-roofed teams play each other in the first series (perhaps in Washington or Florida), then that's only one game that needs to risk bad weather.

Baseball is an unusual sport in that it is so dependent on weather--games are called due to rain or snow--and that's never stopped a season before. Still, there's a difference between suggesting all of April being played in warm weather and just the opening series.

Yes, there's still significant weather risk throughout much of the rest of April, but Opening Day is something that exists on a higher plateau than just any other regular season game--doesn't it deserve to be protected in that every game has a reasonable shot at being played?

Just some food for thought.

****

I had wanted to liveblog the game today, but I may not be able to catch the first three or four innings, so that probably won't go along very well. Wednesday won't work, either (first night of Passover), but maybe Thursday will be kind...

Why the World Baseball Classic is a Good Idea, and a thought on the timing

To understand why the World Baseball Classic is a good idea, we first need to take a look at what happens when you have a sport that is 'global' in that it is played and enjoyed by people an an international, multi-continent spectrum.

Think for a minute, if you will, of team sports with pronounced global appeal and international athletes playing for the top leagues.

Let's use soccer and hockey as examples here.

Soccer, football, or whatever you'd like to call it, is undoubtedly the most popular sport in the world. That it's not very popular in the United States doesn't seem as odd when you consider that the sport has not done too well in former English colonies, although in the United States and Australia this is currently changing.

Soccer's top leagues, like the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A, all draw from an international pool of talent (even MLS is in on this), and then every so often, there is a significant international competition as well. There's not just the World Cup every for years, but also tournaments like the European championship (the Euro), which seemed to shock a bunch of people over at ESPN when (other) people watched the tournament this past summer. The World Cup, however, is the ultimate tournament, perhaps even bigger than the Olympics.


Hockey presents a more nuanced version of this: the elite league is the NHL, which draws large numbers of players from Canada and Eastern Europe. On the amateur level, the World Juniors are well established and often a focus for hockey fans, as they like to gander at their prospects. At the NHL level, the league takes a break for two weeks during the Winter Olympics to allow its players to play for their countries. While the system isn't perfect, it does allow players to experience both elite league play as well as national play.


Why am I bring up soccer and hockey on a baseball blog?

Both sports have managed to combine global tournaments with league play, and both have managed to pull it off in a format immensley popular with fans (as far as I know, anyway).

It seems a long time coming for Major League Baseball, where many players hail from countries such as the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Japan, and have been doing so for quite some time. While it may seem odd to us Americans that the sport, quintessentially American, is so popular elsewhere, that shouldn't matter. What matters is that it is popular, and Major League Baseball, seeing the opportunity to use its star power, if you will, to foster an international competition, has done the right thing.

The benefits from international competition, where those playing are not amateurs with whom most are unfamiliar, are immense.

Aside from the obvious revenue (one of my friends made the comment today that the Rogers Centre in Toronto looked far more crowded than for any Jays/Yankees game), the publicity could be well worth it. If one steps outside the United States for a moment, and looks at the game from another perspective, it's easy to see its appeal.

For example, a country like Japan will routinely lose it's best players (and sometimes the not-so-best, yes, I'm looking at you, Kei Igawa) to the Major Leagues, which keeps fans in Japan from being able to see them, either live or on a non-premium television channel. Granted, streaming internet may render this a moot point, but with the World Baseball Classic being a truly global tournament, fans can once again have an opportunity to see their favorite athletes.

The one major problem with the Classic is the timing.

The issue here is that there really is no decent time to have the Classic. The season is so long that you can't pause it without risking a World Series bleed over into November (actually, that might already happen even though the regular season starts on April 6). I don't know about you, but the idea of potentially going to a November baseball game in Boston, New York, Chicago or in Minnesota's open air stadium (ETA 2010)...is not terribly appealing.

Playing the tournament in November doesn't offer any better of a solution, as some players will have been done with playing since the end of September if their teams don't make the playoffs, and the time required to get ready again would be an unfair commitment.

Spring Training seems like the best option, but it also means that players risk injury before the season starts and teams can't bond in the way they normally would over Spring Training as many teams miss a number of their starters.

The best solution I can think of is that, perhaps, those playing in the WBC start in camp for their WBC teams a few weeks (not too many, perhaps, but a couple) earlier than the official start of Spring Training, and the WBC is held in February instead of March, so the players of countries eliminated early can join their Major League teams earlier and not have to leave them. What's more, if a player does happen to get hurt, they will still have much of March to recover, which means less time missed during the regular season.

Of course, the major caveat here is that the quality of play might not be the same, as players would have less time to get ready, but it's not unheard of for players to show up to camp early, anyway.

There is likely a decent reason why the WBC isn't done like this, so take what you read here with a grain of salt.

Still, the important thing to remember is this: baseball, whether you want it to be or not, is a global sport. Major League baseball has come up with a way to capitalize on the globalization in a way that those living outside the United States and Canada can enjoy on a regular basis. The league has made a lot of mistakes in recent years. This isn't one of them.

Heroes and Zeroes

Over at It's About the Money, Stupid, Jason posts an excellent post on how the media ignored the steroids scandal in baseball.

At River Ave Blues, Joseph P offers his take and comments on the following Ken Rosenthal quip:

“That is our greatest sin, extolling these guys as something more than they were. Some of us had a feeling that something was amiss. We are more guilty of making McGwire and Sosa into heroes when they weren’t.”

Joe's comment:

First of all, McGwire and Sosa are not and never were heroes, even if they hit all those home runs clean. Baseball players are not heroes. They are entertainers. We might attach some narrative lore to them, especially the legendary ones, but that doesn’t make them heroes. There are people who sacrifice their lives for the betterment of others. That’s when you can get into the hero discussion. It does not apply to people who hit baseballs 400 feet.

In an ideal world, Joe is perfectly right. Baseball players aren't heroes, not in the way that firefighters, EMTs, soldiers, the members of the Coast Guard and those that risk their lives to help others are. There's no real comparison between them and guys that get paid hundreds of millions to play a game as a living.

The problem is, however, that we don't live in an ideal world.

We live in a world-and I've said this before-where what matters is not so much the reality as does the perception.

In 1998, the majority of us baseball fans perceived at least one of the Mark McGwire/Sammy Sosa bashing duo as a hero-and in many cases, we thought they both were. In that instance, Sosa and McGwire became de facto heroes, even if they never planned to be considered as such.

See, the thing is, when you are a marquee employee of a multi-billion dollar industry, you don't get to pick and choose what you want to be-if the fans decide you are a hero, if they think you are a hero, however misguided their notion may be, well, then, you are a hero.

So when these guys do something that's not just disallowed by the governing body of their employer, but in many cases illegal as well, you can't just brush it off and say it doesn't matter.

I wish it didn't matter. Really, I would love more than anything not to care, and if you've talked to me recently, you know that my state of delusional grandeur doesn't extend to the belief that 99% of baseball players are clean and there are only a few bad eggs. We know this wasn't and, likely, still isn't true.

An alarming percentage of baseball players likely used-a conservative estimate of 103/800 yields a percentage of 13%; there are only 750 25-man roster players active at any one time-it might seem like an inconsequential number, but over one in ten using would easily mean that yes, someone on your favorite team's roster is using as well.

The public-the paying public-will probably still pay to see the game, even if only to boo the cheaters, but much of the harm done is irreparable.

The Yankees signed Alex Rodriguez to a ten year deal, when they knew that at the tail end of the deal A-Rod is likely to be dead weight because he was the one that was supposed to "cleanly" break Hank Aaron's record. Alex might still go on to hit 800 home runs, but how many of the runs are tainted? If people demand that McGwire's numbers and Bonds' numbers be tainted with asterisks, there is no reason to think they won't demand the same of A-Rod.

I can't actually tell you that most baseball players have no interest in being heroes, but if the opportunity arose, I wouldn't hesitate to make that bet. Baseball players are, as Joe says, in reality entertainers. The perception of them as heroes is unfair...but it's still there, just the same.

As I said before, the steroids scandal isn't likely to keep fans from the game-if you see a decline in attendance figures this year, you're probably best off attributing blame to the recession/economic collapse/second great depression-but the argument that baseball players aren't heroes and thus how they do what they do shouldn't matter is fallacious.


Baseball players have tremendous ability-they can inspire kids to play and thus stay out of trouble, they can inspire kids to dream and they can provide us adults with an escape from the humdrum of every day life (well, unless you're a Nationals fan, but that's not the point). In that sense, baseball players are heroes, and as much as I have issues with Ken Rosenthal, he is not entirely off the mark.

The Bird-Man

I saw the bird man in the Bronx today.

Whistling and cawing, he was, as though trying himself to bring back all the birds, as though saying "winter is over, come back home", even though winter technically still has another two months to go.

Even so, one can tell that the thaw is beginning.

It is no longer as dark as the dead of night at four thirty in the afternoon, snow seems old and pointless instead of fresh and fun, and the gear that greets me on the streets is not that of the Giants or the Knicks or the Rangers, but that of the Yankees and Mets.

It is, of course, no secret that New York is a baseball city. Baseball first, baseball foremost, baseball forever.

We live for spring because it makes us believe again.

It makes us believe that the world doesn't have to be an oppressive place, it makes us believe that things that are bad, whether they be minor like a third place finish in the division, or major like a collapsed economy, that these things cannot endure. It makes us believe that we can be bold with our predictions, that A-Rod can have a monster year and CC can (again) win the Cy Young and that those chilly October nights will be worth it.

We are a cold weather city, but winter is not our thing. We can do Christmas all right in Rockefeller Square and no one rivals our New Year's, but these things we would do anyway, even if they were six months later.

Our hearts lie in the spring, in the endless promise of hope, though we refuse to forget our history and perhaps this is why baseball and, of course, the Yankees mean so much to us.


So go ahead bird man, caw and tweet as you will.

We like spring around here.

Money for Arbitration, but not for Free Agents

I was talking to David Pinto last night (stay tuned for an interview with him at the end of the week!) and he posed a question that I am not sure anyone else has considered just yet:

Why is it that there is (seemingly) no money for the remaining free agents , but arbitration numbers are way, way up ?

I can't presume to offer a straight answer. I don't know nearly enough about the business of arbitration or what teams need or, most importantly, the state of teams' finances to do more than speculate.

However, given that the Hot Stove League is its own sport, speculate we will.

There are two reasons that immediately came to mind last night when the question was posed to me:

1) the caliber and positions played of arbitration-eligible players versus the caliber and positions played of remaining free agents

2) the fact that arbitration-eligible players are still under team control while free agents are not, thus making it a game of leverage.


To look at the first reason--

One has to remember that the top free agents--CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixiera--all did sign, and sign for large, long-term deals as well. The fact that they all signed for the same team might throw you, but they did, in fact, sign. They played positions that the Yankees needed to fill, are young enough to be able to sign the long-term deals, and with the exception of Burnett, are historically healthy.

If you look at some of the remaining free agents, however, you see names like Ben Sheets, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Braden Looper (there are lots of others; these are just the first four that come to mind).

With each of these, there's a decent reason for not signing them--Sheets, though good, is never healthy, Ramirez is up there in age and likely looking for more than a one or two year deal, Griffey hasn't been truly healthy since he left Seattle and Looper is just not that good (as I've learned the hard way).

In all or at least most these cases (and again, the list above is not extensive by any means), the players are (likely) looking for deals at a minimum of three years, and for many teams, the risk is simply not worth the signing.


If we look at players who have submitted arbitration figures , however, we see players like Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla, Jason Werth, Ryan Ludwick, Justin Verlander and John Maine. Again, this is not an extensive list, just a sampling.

However, some of the things you notice is that the players on the list are that 1) the players are mostly young, and 2) they are mostly healthy. Heading to arbitration means that the length of the players' contracts are not really up for question; in the case of the best players, teams will often sign them to an extension to avoid arbitration altogether. Many of the players listed would have become free agents at the end of this season or next, so while there may very well be questions about how good a player is, teams aren't risking long-term harm by having to sign them to a long term deal.

Arbitration itself is a somewhat arbitrary process (I know, I know); by its very nature players that accept it, especially those on the downswing of their career, will likely get more money than through free agency alone. Had Bobby Abreu, for example, accepted arbitration, he'd likely be looking at a salary of $16-$18 million.


Free Agency, and this goes into reason number two listed above, is by its very nature much more dependent on the market and market conditions.

As with any basic market, there are two main factors in play: supply and demand, and risk.

For a team to sign a player that's a free agent, the player must satisfy a demand of the team and not possess a risk greater than the possible outcome.

Mark Teixiera satisfied the Yankees' need for a first baseman, and he doesn't, health-wise or age-wise, possess an obvious risk that he won't be able to play most of his eight-year contract.

In one instance where there seems to be an overwhelming supply available, one can look at the available free agent catchers, who include Pudge Rodriguez, Jason Varitek and Brad Ausmus. In that group alone, you've got former all-stars--though the 'former' is perhaps more relevant than the 'all-star'. Teams want catchers that, even if they can't hit like Mike Piazza or Jorge Posada, will at least not be an automatic out. Yankees fans should be wary enough of this--for all the great defense Jose Molina provided, a line up combination last year of Cano, Molina and Cabrera was a recipe for a 1-2-3 inning.


So, the question--why are arbitration numbers way, way up and free agent numbers down--we can speculate has a three-part answer:

1) Numbers for the biggest free agent signings were not, in fact, down;

2) the corps of players accepting arbitration this year, as a whole, tend to be younger and healthier than the remaining free agents, and since most will become free agents in a year or two don't present the time-commitment risks a big free agent signing would, and,

3) the free agent market operates in an open market system (or something that closely resembles it), while arbitration is much more artificial. In a down market, like our current recession, all open markets will suffer, but arbitration can offer players some protection, even if it is artificial.