Predicting the AL and NL Wild Card Races

With just over a month left, the playoff races are beginning to take shape.

The division races are fairly clear: Yankees, Angels and one of Tigers/White Sox in the American League, and Phillies and Cardinals in the National League; surprisingly it's the Dodgers who may have the most tenuous hold on their division lead in the NL.

The Wild Card races, however, are a bit harder to predict.

When the Yankees are so likely to win the East, why does the Wild Card race matter?

For two reasons: a) if the AL Wild Card winner comes out of the Central or the West, that will likely be the team the Yankees play in the first round, and b) The Wild Card winner has played in--and won--a fair few of this decade's World Series.

So, let's go through the teams in most contention:

American League

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have to be considered the favorite just because they've held the position for so long, but that doesn't mean they are a good choice to be favorite.

They made their biggest move early in the season with a 12-game win streak, but right now their starting rotation is mostly "Josh and Jon and then there are bombs". Getting Wakefield back should help, but not if Beckett keeps pitching like he did in his last two outings.

The good news is that the offense has stepped it up quite a bit--but there's only so much an offense can do.


Texas Rangers

The darlings of the AL this year, they're finally doing it with pitching. Derek Holland and Scott Feldman have been revelations. Head to head, they took two of the last three that they played with Boston, but the one loss came when the night's closer, Frank Francisco, blew the lead.

If they make the playoffs, Ron Washington is probably a shoo-in for manager of the year.


Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are still paying for the slow, 2007-Yankees-like start to the season and may now have too much to overcome. They are only three games back, but they are trailing two teams and their pitching hasn't been as good as it was last season. Trading Edwin Jackson away does not seem to have been a great decision, speaking mildly.

There's certainly hope, though, and unlike the Rangers, this group has postseason experience.



National League

Colorado Rockies

Once again, they've taken on a veneer as a team of destiny. The division isn't out of the question for this group, and if they did take it, it would be a come back even bigger than the 1978 Yankees--just to give an idea as to what the Rockies have done already.

We still aren't quite sure how Jason Marquis is doing it, but somehow he's found a way.


San Francisco Giants

When both Lincecum and Cain are on, they are probably the best 1-2 in baseball. The problem is, outside of Pablo Sandoval, they basically have zero offensive support. Yes, pitching wins championships, but you can't win every game 1-0, which is pretty much what the Giants have had to do all season.

Given how poorly the Giants have played in recent years, the fact that they are this good this year has been especially remarkable. If only they had that little more bit of offense...


Atlanta Braves

Four-and-a-half games out, it's not exceedingly likely the Braves make the postseason, but it's also far too soon to count them out entirely.

Like the Giants, they have the pitching but not necessarily the hitting--that is, until they decide to give Heyward a shot...

A Preview A Day Keeps the Winter Away, #25

For the month of March I will be doing a season preview, with a new team each day, going in alphabetical order by team so I can save the Yankees for last, because I am, in fact, that devious.

As this is a Yankees' blog, the previews for AL East teams will be more detailed than those of AL Central and AL West teams, and any AL team previews will be more detailed than NL team previews, save maybe for the Mets. Each preview will involve consideration of how much 'threat' a team is to the Yankees, for fairly obvious reasons.

Up today: The Colorado Rockies


Of all the possible opponents for the Red Sox in the World Series last October, the Rockies seem like they would have been the most unlikely--they had to win 21 of 22 games just to get there.

The Rockies have lost LaTroy Hawkins and Kaz Matsui, but they have gotten Luis Vizcaino (remember him?)

While their pitching is as strong as it's been in the Rockies' short history, their true strength is their infield: Todd Helton (remember when he was supposed to hit .400 in a season?) Marcus Giles (okay, so he's so-so), Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki, who used to idolize Jeter. Matt Holliday in the outfield is also a good reason the Rockies can be considered a postseason contender.

Threat to the Yankees: Green, Proceed Normally

We don't play the Rockies this year though they did sweep us last year. I have my doubts they'll repeat as NL champs.

Now that the Rockies were my last National League team (from hear on out it's Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Yankees), I can have some basic NL predictions. Keep in mind, I'm about as good a fortune teller as that dude at your local Rennaisance Faire.

East:

Phillies
Braves
Mets
Marlins
Nationals.

Central:

Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Pirates
Astros

West:

Diamondbacks
Padres*
Rockies
Dodgers
Giants

Diamondbacks over Padres
Cubs over Phillies

Diamondbacks over Cubs.

Padres over Phillies
Diamondbacks over Cubs

Diamondbacks over Padres

(What? Sorry Chicago, but after Bartman, I don't have any faith...)

Rock Bottom (World Series Game 4 Postgame Notes)

[edit]: I need to not write these sort of posts immediately following the game...

The Red Sox do deserve to be congratulated on winning the series; I have a few close friends that are Sox fans, and I am happy that they are happy.

I'll admit it: This is a dark day to be a Yankee fan.

Any other team wins the World Series while not playing the Yankees, I can easily congratulate them for a job well done...with Boston, every bone in my body repels at the notion, even though it's the classy thing to do.

The pinstripe pride runs too deep in my veins.

Colorado tried to play today, they managed to keep it close, a one run game, but it was too little much too late.

The simple conclusion that can be drawn is that the National League simply is not on the level of the American League. At least, not this season, not this October.

Colorado had a great season, and should not despair. Winning 21 of 22 is no small feat, especially given the time they did it and the situation they were in. Just one other loss and Colorado would not even have made the playoffs.


As a Yankee fan, it won't be easy to go to sleep tonight, knowing what lies ahead, but then again, beating A-Rod and Boston in 2008 will be all that much sweeter...

Three and Out (World Series Game Three Postgame Notes)

So I did not see any of this game past the fourth inning, but then again, I'm not sure that there was any reason for me to do so.

Colorado, quite simply, has played overmatched.

When the American League team's pitcher gets a hit that drives in two runs, there's an issue, and Colorado is now as up against the wall as you can get.

Josh Fogg, the "dragonslayer" was supposed to be brilliant, but he couldn't make it out of the third inning. If you can't make it past the third inning, you probably shouldn't be starting a game in the World series, but who knows. Maybe Fogg just 'didn't have it'...it could have been the pressure of the World Series, who knows?


The nine days off seems to have been nothing but a horror story for Colorado, but again, who knows?


They weren't supposed to make the playoffs at all, six games out with twenty to play, but they had a miracle in them then.


Maybe there's another miracle in their hearts as well.

On the Rocks (World Series Game 2 Postgame Notes)

At least this is what a World Series game is supposed to look like--a close, low-scoring, one run affair...

...but it certainly did not feel that way.

I don't know about you, but I had to check my TV constantly to see that the game was still only at 2-1; the way Boston pitched and reached base, I thought it was 4-1 or 5-1.

So it seems the Colorado pitching staff woke up today, and decided to stop playing zombie...and if only the offense could do that as well!

Matt Holliday might be the National League MVP, but he did the most un-MVPish thing possible when he got picked off in the eighth inning, killing a potential rally. Sure there were two outs, but if I learned one thing this postseason, it's that you can never rest easy until the third out is made.

Curt Schilling did one of those better-as-the-game-goes-on performances, which is never any fun for the opposing team, because then you realize that you had a huge opportunity (like the first) and you missed.

Still, going back to Coor's Field will be good for Colorado. Will they win the World Series? Never say never, but they have their work cut out for them.

I wonder if a World Series game has ever been snowed out...

Boston Rocks (World Series Game 1 Postgame Notes)

Memo to the Colorado Rockies:


There is nothing wrong with dressing up and playing zombie for Halloween, but, uh, you're generally supposed to wait until October 31 to dress up in costume...


Seriously, that was an ugly affair for anyone not rooting for Boston.

World Series games are supposed to be close, nail-biter sort of affairs, with late inning heroics, the best of the best, but the game played today may have as well been played in March.

Seriously, if Eric Gagnè is on the mound in Fenway Park in a World Series game, you know something is up.

That Colorado only managed one run against Josh Beckett is not a surprise; no one seems to be doing much scoring of any sort against the Red Sox ace, but Colorado's pitching, from the lead off man, could not even attempt to compete.

Compared to the doings of Morales and co, Jeff Francis actually seemed as though he was the ace of the affair, and if you give up six runs, you're pretty much not an ace.

You have to credit Boston's offense for coming to play, and they certainly did. An obscene number of runs were scored with two out, and you can't ask for more than that from an offense.

There's no doubt the eight-day lay off has something to do with the Zombies-R-Us-ness of tonight's game; those rooting for the Rockies or against the Sox (like any true Yankee fan) have to hope that tonight was a 'shake off the rust' game and that it will not happen again.

On a completely unrelated note:

My Halloween costume is coming along as much as a costume made from bedsheets and yarn can come along. Can't wait to show you all!

Rox N' Sox (2007 World Series Preview)

Presenting Rebecca's 2007 World Series preview, written in verse to celebrate the rhyming of Sox and Rox.

Ahem:

They’re bonkers in Boston for the Sox,
Crazed in Colorado for the Rox.
To the World Series they will go,
Whether through wind, rain, sleet or snow.

The Rockies have been on an amazing run,
Of the past twenty-two, they won twenty-one.
Against the wall, Boston made an attack
Three games to one, they came all the way back.

Boston has pitchers like Beckett and Schilling,
But the Rockies’ offense can make a killing,
With hitters like Holliday and Tulowitzki
To come up against Paplebon and Hideki.

Boston has Manny, Ortiz and Youkilis,
But the Rockies have pitchers like Jeff Francis.
Josh Fogg might be the Dragon-slayer,
But Pedroia is quite the player.

The Rockies play a mile high,
Where balls sail far into the sky,
But Boston has their home at Fenway,
Where since 1912 they come to play.

So who is it going to be in the end?
On certain factors it will all depend.
Colorado has had nine days to rest
While Boston has had to play at their best.

If the Rockies can stay hot,
Beating them Boston will not.
But if the contest comes down to the bullpen,
It will be Boston in five, six or seven.



(I would love a Colorado sweep, but if Beckett and Schilling can deliver, then Boston, who has home field advantage, will probably pull out. Let's hope the Rockies remain hot.)

Rock Around the Clock (NLCS game 4 postgame notes)

This is short because it's late and I'm supposed to go to class tomorrow.

The Colorado Rockies are the National League Champions.

While some outside of that great state may have expected it, I certainly wasn't one of them....but the Rockies deserve it.

They played their hearts out, never gave up, never gave in, and it paid off big time.

Arizona, in a classic case of 'too little, too late' , did make it close, but close is not good enough. For all the hailing of Micah Owings, it was the Rockies, and the pitcher that they did not mention, that are playing for it all.

....and this entire time I'm thinking, Todd Helton really wants to lift the Cup right about now...

Which, I believe, is a universal signal for bedtime.

See you all later today/tomorrow depending on your time zone!

Rocking to the Beat of Their Own Drum (NLCS Game 3 Postgame Notes)

In today's News of the Absurd:

The Colorado Rockies are one game from the World Series.

Let me repeat.

The Colorado Rockies are one game from the World Series.

Whatever you thought, going into the 2007 baseball season, I can pretty much guarantee that it wasn't that, but that's exactly what it is.

Colorado's out pitched, out hit, out clutched and out fundamentaled so far, so unless Arizona has an '04 Sox in them, they're stuck, and judging from tonight, Coors Field isn't the driest or warmest place to play baseball in October.

The Rockies are playing so well right now they nearly turned a triple play, and it felt like the double play was a disappointment.

Livan Hernandez was good but Josh Fogg was excellent. Arizona got on base, but Colorado scored. Arizona hit into three double plays in the first three innings. Colorado didn't.

The most interesting part of the whole thing is how into it the Colorado fans are. You don't think of Colorado as a baseball place in the way that you do Boston, New York, Chicago...you think of Broncos and Avalanche...but the fans at Coors Field tonight, even in the pouring rain and chill, were as into it as fans can get.

If the question right now is who wants it more?, the answer is Colorado.

Plain, simple and rock hard.

(I promise, I'll stop the rock related puns as soon as the Rockies are eliminated...)

Rock(ies) and Roll (NLCS Game Two Postgame notes)

Well, if I'm going to stay up to three AM watching a baseball game, I should thank Colorado and Arizona to make it a good one!

An old-fashioned pitcher's duel is the best way to describe the game, and, well, the Rockies seem utterly immune to losing. Even when their 'pen blows a one run lead in the ninth, on the road, the Rockies shrug it off like no big deal and win in eleven.

If Arizona has any hope of beating Colorado now, they'll have to do it on the road and at Coors field...which will be anything but an easy task.

Seriously. 19-1 in the last 20 games? It's almost as if we should be asking 'why are we playing the NLCS this year?', but, of course, if we did, Arizona would just go and win four straight.


Arizona's not up against a wall yet, but in the world of baseball metaphors, they're certainly on the warning track.

Arizona pitched well last night, but Colorado pitched better, and the deeper into the series that we go, the bigger the fact looms that Colorado's got the deeper pitching staff.

I think, right now, the D-backs have got to be hoping that there's some sort of rain or snow out. Right now, it seems like their only chance to win a game...



Back later with more. Going to go eat something first.

Rock On, Colorado! (2007 NLCS Game One postgame notes)

Okay, I'm no great fan of Colorado. Mostly, this has to do with hockey, and the Broncos in 1998, but the point remains, that for me to support a team from Colorado takes considerable effort.

However, when Arizona's fans did one of the most un-classy things possible--throwing objects such as water bottles on the field--I decided that I wanted Colorado to win the game.

After all, why not?


Brandon Webb simply just did not have it...he seemed spot on in the first, but quickly came apart.
'
Arizona had chances to get runs back on offense, but like the Yankees' LDS offense (excepting game three), they were simply anemic. They did that whole GIDP thing way too much, which is painful to watch if you're trying to support that team.

On the other hand, Colorado did everything right.

They got the big hits, pitched well enough, and ran the bases like a playoff team.


Colorado deserved this one. Rock on!



That's it from me tonight; tomorrow we've got ALCS preview, Friday's 'You Learn Something New' (YLSN) in which I will pick a baseball concept/idea/rule/term I don't understand and figure out how to explain it, and ALCS Game One recap. I'll be watching ALCS Game One with my friend who is a Red Sox fan, so I may or may not have some extra insight.

Snake bites or Mountain Lions? (NLCS preview)

Arizona Diamondbacks. Colorado Rockies. If you asked anyone on June 1st what these two teams would be doing on 11 October, chances are you would have said "golfing".

You would have been wrong. Very, very wrong.

Tonight these two teams will be squaring off in the NLCS, and even though it's anything but a purist's dream (We could have had Cubs-Phillies!), it's going to be a good series.

Both teams are young. Both teams are incredibly hot--Colorado seems to be on the verge of eliminating 'lose' from its vocabulary and a Diamondbacks team that was supposed to finish no better than third was the only 90 game winner.

So, who's going to take the series?

I have no idea. However, I will be shocked if either team wins it in five games or less. I can't see Arizona winning at Coors Field; I can't see Colorado sweeping.

Players you want to watch: Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki (no, I don't know how to spell that), Brandon Webb, Micah Owings.

If I had to go and guess as to who's going to win, I'd have to go with Colorado. Arizona probably should have lost game two against Chicago, but Colorado more or less decimated the much-better Phillies.

Still, four days off for Colorado doesn't bode well for their winning streak...except that Arizona's done the same thing as well.

Again, the NLCS is not a purist's dream, but it should be entertaining to watch just the same. If you're a Yankee fan, on principle, you should probably be supporting the Rockies.


NFL picks coming shortly, but I'm hungry and want to eat something first.

Bang the Drum Slowly... (ALDS Game 1 Postgame Notes)

History would make us think that losing game one to Cleveland bodes well--we lost ALDS game 1 in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004--and advanced to the LCS. We one game one in 2002, 2005 and 2006 and lost those series.

Logic would tell us that 6-0 season series could not possibly hold forever, and that having not seen CC Sabathia in four years would already work against us.

Superstition would make us believe that like the rest of the season, we've got to play from behind.

X-factor superstition would tell me that because I did not see a squirrel today, we had no chance.


It doesn't change the basic fact though: A loss, ANY loss, in the Postseason hurts.

It hurts more because you never like to see the Wanger lose, it hurts more because you hate to see the rookie reliever like Ohlendorf get hammered, it hurts more because the Yankees had one chance, in the top of the fifth, to turn the game around, but for some reason I really don't want to know, Posada was given the green light on 3-0 and it hurts more because the TBS play-by-play guys sound as virtually anti-Yankee as you can be without being Red Sox announcers.

The Indians were able to do everything that the Yankees are supposed to be able to do, and they did it well.

However, I remember playing the Indians in '97 (and the incident of which we do not speak) and in '98. They are anything but the pushover that Texas was in '98 and '99.


Should the Yankees be concerned?

Perhaps, but it's not as though Friday is an elimination game. The Yankees will know that, they will make the appropriate adjustments.

I think, in the end, that when the Yankees are all gathered in the clubhouse, they'll be thinking just one thing: Win on Friday, beat Carmona, go back to New York with the split.


In the regular season, the Yankees were AWFUL against left handed starters on the road, and they still won 94 games.

Baseball is a funky sport.


Luck isn't on my side tonight. The Devils took a 1-1 tie through most of the third, but lost the game.

Luck might be running out on Philadelphia, too.

Colorado killed them 10-5, and Kaz Matsui was a single shy of the cycle--he had a double, triple and Grand Slam.

The Rockies are not a team either the Cubs or Diamondbacks will want to face in the NLCS.

Unless Philadelphia has a miracle in them, somehow.

Postseason Scores and Stuffs, 3 October 2007

The Rockies beat the Phillies 4-2, in Philadelphia. The Rockies are more or less the one team no one wants to play right now; and Jeff Francis had a great game, making only two mistakes.

Chase Utley had four strikeouts, more or less the opposite of 'clutch'.

Cole Hammels did not pitch that poorly for Philadelphia, but one bad inning in the second cost them dearly. Philadelphia allowed just two hits outside of that inning, a home run and a base hit in the ninth.


Boston beat the Angels, 4-0. The Angels played like they're hurting, and Beckett was...well, let's just say he brought back some very unpleasant memories of 2003.

However, the unpleasant memories of Beckett are not nearly as unpleasant as the memories of Ortiz...and that he went 2-3 makes me very, very unhappy.


One more game to go, but I probably won't stay up for the entire thing. I'll either edit that into this post or put something up tomorrow morning.

[EDIT]: The Cubs/Diamondbacks game is the most exciting game of the day. A one-one tie into the seventh, Arizona pulled two ahead with a home run and a RBI.

Now, it's top of the ninth, Chicago up at bat, one on and two out, Soriano up...might as well stay awake to see how this one ends!


Side note: I know there are some that disagree with me, but I'm actually enjoying the TBS coverage. It's no-nonsense, and the announcers aren't afraid to be critical of the teams. I didn't so much enjoy the rehashing of 2004, but what else would you expect in a Boston game?

Also, the game breaks mid-innings are much more enjoyable than commercials.

Sizing Up the NL Final Four

Well, this one is a lot harder because I know very little about the National League. Please do yourself a favor and don't use this post to make your NL picks...


Arizona Diamondbacks: Not quite the team from 2001, but young, and they know how to win. They have the best record in the National League, so Chicago has its hands full.

Strengths: Webb gems. Brandon Webb is my vote for NL Cy Young; three straight shut outs is beyond impressive. He can be the spark for this team, and propel them to a World Series.

Weaknesses: Inexperience. Arizona is a YOUNG team. Justin Upton is only nineteen! Like Cleveland, the playoffs are likely to be a growing experience as much as anything else.

Chicago Cubs: For a while it didn't seem like anyone wanted to win the NL Central, but eventually the Cubs decided to do it. Billy Goats better watch out.

Strengths: They're due. Oh, dear G-d are they due. Note: This is a cover for the fact that I can't really name any Cubs players aside from Soriano, Lee, Zambrano and Lilly...If Zambrano's on, the Cubs will be hard to beat.

Weaknesses: History. Billy goats, black cats, what have you, and a 105 year-long drought. As long as Steve Bartman stays clear of Wrigley, I guess they have a chance...

Colorado Rockies: Fourteen out of fifteen isn't just hot. Fourteen out of fifteen is you-don't-even-have-to-touch-home-plate-to-win hot. People better start taking them seriously now...

Strengths: Momentum, and geography. The Rockies need to ride their momentum for all it's worth, because it's capable of carrying them far. Also, playing at Coors Field at home means they're used to the altitude, which will likely provide a bonus.

Weaknesses: Inexperience. I'm not sure anyone on the current Rockies roster have playoff experience...maybe Kaz Matsui when he was with the Mets? I'm not sure about this so you guys have to help me out!

Philadelphia Phillies: Simply put, they shouldn't be here right now, but they are. It's what makes baseball the greatest sport, ever...

Strengths: Lady Luck. You don't survive injuries to your second basemen, your all-star slugger and G-d knows who else and no real pitching staff to speak of aside from Cole Hammels without some help from above.

Weaknesses: Lady Luck. Lady doesn't stay around forever...


Not going to try to make predictions here, because my gut tells me that every team's going to win and we all know that's not possible...


Anyway, enjoy tonight.

If what happened last night means anything, we're in for one of the best Octobers ever. Hold onto your hats folks, it's going to be one wild ride...