(A thanks to Jay Destro for the idea, and to Baseball Reference for being the G-d of baseball statistics!)
Right, for this week's YLSNED, I thought I'd take a look at some historical teams that had started a rotation with three or more pitchers under thirty, perhaps as some food for thought given the Yankees' probable rotation next year.
First of all, you have what I consider the 'classic, best scenario example', the 1993 Atlanta Braves, with John Smoltz, Greg Maddox and Tom Glavine.
Maddox and Glavine were both 27 and Smoltz was 26.
The Braves won 104 games. Glavine was 22-6, Maddox 20-10 and Smoltz 15-11. The Braves only made it to the NLCS that year, but the year before they had made it to the World Series, and in 1995 (with no WS in 1994), they won it all.
I consider the Braves the classic success story because of the fourteen straight chances at a World Series, and the team they were able to build around their 'big three' that lasted nearly all of the nineties and into the beginning of the new millennium.
Right. Next example:
The 2003 Chicago Cubs. They are a great example of having something great...and then having it go way, way astray.
Kerry Wood, at 26, was 14-11. Mark Prior, at 22 was 18-6. Carlos Zambrano, at 22, was 13-11.
The team went to the NLCS, and if not for a fan's interfering with a foul ball (and a curse of some sort of goat thingie) would have likely met either the Yankees or Red Sox in the World Series (THAT would have been some series!)
Of those three starters, however, only Carlos Zambrano now still pitches on a regular basis, having just signed a massive $90 million contract extension. Wood has not won more than 10 games since, and Mark Prior has battled serious injury concerns, going just 1-6 in 2006.
The culprit? Overuse of the young pitching arms, which has had almost immediate effects with other teams across the league, which for Yankee fans will be familiar with two words: "Joba Rules"
Third example:
The team that beat the Cubs, AND the Yankees in 2003. Also known as 'why Loria will never be my friend'.
The Florida Marlins in 2003 won the World Series with a pitching rotation that included Dontrelle Willis, Mark Redman, Josh Beckett, Carl Pavano and Brad Penny.
At 21, Willis went 14-6. At 23 Josh Becket was only 9-8, but came up huge in the postseason. At 27, Carl Pavano was 12-13, but the next year 18-8. At 25 Brad Penny was 14-10.
The rotation was largely kept in tact through the 2004 season, but by 2006 Dontrelle Willis was the only one still left, and as you probably know now, he has been traded to the Detroit Tigers.
So, as you might have guessed, there is no way to tell exactly how a rotation of young studs could pan out--for every Maddox, Smoltz and Glavine, there's a Mulder, Hudson or Zito, or Wood, Prior, Zambrano.
There is no question that Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy have the talent to be a Maddox, Smoltz, Glavine (or, who knows, even better...), but there are so many unknowns as well.
So, basically the message regarding the Trinity/the Three Musketeers is thus: hope for the best, but keep your feet on the ground.