Leverage, baby, Leverage

When Mariano Rivera began to warm in the seventh inning last night, there were a variety of reactions. Some liked the move, some did not, and I admit that, at first, I was a little worried--what if something happened, Rivera pitched two innings, the Yankees lost the game and then Rivera wasn't able to pitch a Game Seven?

Fortunately, I soon came to my senses, and remembered that I do believe in the concept of use-the-best-reliever-in-highest-leverage, as this is exactly what Girardi did last night.

In the top of the eighth inning, in a game that was still a two-run score, Girardi went with his best reliever to get the top--and then the meat--of the Angels' batting order: Figgins-Abreu-Hunter-Guerrerro-Morales.

Just as recently as Game 5, Phil Hughes struggled against that same part of the lineup, unable to get the one out he needed, and as big a Robertson fan as I am--and I'm a big one--when you have the option to go to Rivera, you take it.

Now, according to Fangraphs, the fourth inning in which the Yankees scored their first three runs was the highest-leveraged situation of the game, but at that time the starter was still pitching, and, well, ideally you don't remove a starter in the fourth inning.

Still, as the graph indicates, the leverage situation in the eighth inning was still much higher than that in the ninth.

The Yankees, last night, employed Mariano Rivera in the most effective way that they could. How is the mood repaying them?

The team's off to their fortieth World Series.


****

Stay tuned for more World Series/Turnpike Series goodies. I've got somehwere to be this afternoon, but plan on a Live Chat Tuesday evening, round 7.30. I will post a reminder tomorrow.

Where* art thou Robertson?

In his book Birth of a Dynasty, Joel Sherman opens with the 1995 postseason.

He makes mention that Buck Showalter had a young Mariano Rivera in the bullpen--ostensibly along for the ride--but did not use him correctly, to close out, in that fatal game five when it would have mattered most.

I won't bore you with the details of that game, we remember well enough what happened.


Now think about this:

As I have stated previously, the best reliever not named Mariano Rivera on the Yankee staff right now is David Robertson.

More than once this postseason, Robertson, who debuted last season, has been single-handedly responsible for keeping the Yankees' game hopes alive.

It's easiest for me to remember his game 2 ALDS performance since I saw it in person, and to be honest, the performance was nearly Mariano-like.

This really shouldn't surprise any of us.

Robertson's strikeout per nine this season is twelve. That's an astounding rate--Mariano, in his historical campaign last season was at nearly thirteen (for contrast, this year he's at a pedestrian six).

Yet, despite Roberson's success, Girardi seems, at times, to be reluctant to use him.

Sure, Robertson had a masterful performance in the ALDS, but at the time the only pitchers Girardi had to use were Robertson and Gaudin--so the choice was more or less made for him.

As far as Game 3 is concerned, most, if not all of us agree that Girardi should have left Robertson in to pitch to Kendrick in the 11th inning, and I needn't go into Girardi's explanation for removing the young right hander.

So, what gives? Why does Girardi seem so reluctant to use the one non-Mariano pitcher that has consitently come up big this postseason?

I can think of two possible explanations, neither one of which I particularly enjoy:

1) Girardi is attempting to mask some sort of injury. This sounds far fetched--and it's nothing more than a hunch on my part--but given Robertson's Andrews visit in September, I can't brush it off entirely.

2) Like Showalter and Rivera, Girardi doesn't know what he has in Robertson. While on the surface this seems to be the much more plausible explanation of the two, it actually makes less sense to me.

Robertson has been up with the Yankees for the majority of the season, and has progressed from low leverage situations to playoff situations where one bad pitch ends the game--and you don't get much more high leverage like that.

There is an argument to be made for experience, but the only other reliever with any significant postseason experience is Mariano himself.

I can understand not using Robertson in favor of the lefties when the situation warrants (although you can debate which lefty should be used), but I'm not so sure, at this point, that Chamberlain or Aceves should be used ahead of our very own D-Rob.


Bullpens are notoriously fickle things--at the start of 2009, let's not forget, it was Mariano Rivera and the Arson Squad of Doom.

That said, that's all the more reason that when one reliever is proving himself to be a hot hand, he should be the manager's first choice, not his last.

The Yankees have a bullpen advantage over Anaheim; Girardi has to make it work.




*wherefore, the common Shakespearean term, means not where, but why. Thus, 'wherefore' is not the appropriate title for the blog post. Head explode yet?

It's all about the leverage (or why Mariano should have pitched the 7th)

Leverage is a funny word. A loaded word, if you will.

For one thing, it's more or less responsible for the financial collapse of America.

In baseball parlance, leverage refers to an on-field situation--the inning, number of outs, score, pitch count, etc--and how likely the result of that on-field situation is to have an effect on the game.

Example: Bases loaded, no one out, top of the eleventh inning as it was in game 2 of the ALDS is a high leverage situation, because the result of the next pitch (or, if you prefer, at bat) is likely to have a significant impact on the game's final outcome.

Other example: Top of the ninth inning, two outs, runner on second, your team is up 10-1. This is a low leverage situation. At this point in the game, because of the score, whatever happens with the batter at the plate is unlikely to have a significant impact on the game's final outcome.


***

With this understanding of leverage, one can put forth a very simple concept:

Teams should use their very best relievers in the highest leveraged situations.


Simple, direct, easy to understand, right?


Here's where we have a problem: there is a pervading belief among many, especially those that read only main stream media (MSM), that the highest leverage situations are automatically the ninth innings in close games. In other words, situations that would warrant a "save".

This is not necessarily the case.

The ninth inning can become a high leverage situation, but many, if not most, games are decided before the ninth inning.

In the seventh and eighth innings, for example, you are likely to encounter a situation in which the starter has been removed from the game but where most (okay, right now, all) teams will consider it too early to go to their "closer"--who is often the team's best reliever.

Take tonight's game, for example.

In the top of the seventh inning, John Lackey was (wrongly) removed for Darren Oliver with the bases loaded and two outs.

With the score only a four run differential, this was an incredibly high leverage spot, especially with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez--two power hitters--due up. Now, one can argue whether or not Brian Fuentes should be a closer, but what is clear is that Oliver is not the Angels' best reliever. Jepsen, Fuentes and Bulger are all arguably or factually better than Oliver.

So the Angels and the Yankees were left with a situation where the Yankees were batting against the "soft underbelly" of the Angels' bullpen in a close game, and a team as good as the Yankees doesn't usually miss.

It's not much of a surprise, then, that at the end of that half inning, the Yankees lead 6-4.

At that point in time, Mark Teixeira's at bat shapes up to be the single most important at bat of the game. Never mind what followed afterwards, but at that very moment, it seemed likely that Teixeira's at bat could very well dictate the final outcome of the game.

Think of it this way: if you're the Angels' skip, are you sure you pitch Oliver there? Or would you be better off, if you're determined to take Lackey out, by bringing in Bulger or Fuentes?

***

So now we come to the Yankees and the bottom of the seventh inning.

Let's start here with a couple of knowns or supposeds:

A) Mariano Rivera is the best reliever the Yankees have on staff.

A1) Right now, this is likely followed by David Robertson, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, Damaso Marte, Alfredo Aceves and Chad Gaudin, with Gaudin not being used except to mop up a blow out or to pitch extended work in extra innings.

B) Pitching the ninth inning of any game is not an easy thing to do, even if it's not necessarily the highest leveraged situation of a game. Just watch this interview after Phil Coke's first Major League save:



Thus, while one tries to address leverage, one cannot ignore a ninth inning where the leading team leads by no more than three or four runs as being a non-factor.




After tonight's loss, there was much conversation about the seventh inning and what should or should not have been done.

There is no arguing that the inning was the most critical part of the game--just look at the WPA graph:


(image credit: Fangraphs)

The bars on the bottom indicate the leverage of a situation--the ninth inning ended up turning into quite the critical situation, but it doesn't matter if not for the seventh.

As it was, a simple refresher:

With a two run lead, AJ Burnett went back to the mound with 80 pitches, and the first two Angel batters quickly reached base. At this point Girardi pulled Burnett for Damaso Marte, who retired two batters while allowing one run. Marte was then pulled for Phil Hughes, and, well, we know what happened from there.

Here's the leverage argument:

Because of the importance of the situation, with the tying runs on base and the Angels' best hitters (Hunter-Guerrerro-Morales) due up, Girardi should have gone to Mariano Rivera.


It's a claim that much of the MSM and their readers/viewers will brush off as being too reactionary, but it's based on the single, simple premise discussed above:

Teams should use their very best relievers in the highest leveraged situations.


At the time, there is utterly no way to predict that the ninth inning will matter or how much it will matter.

What you know, however, is that at the time, the two potential tying runs on base are the two most important runs you want to prevent from scoring if you are the Yankees.

A tie game will automatically favor the home team, since they always have the final at bat and one less half inning to pitch, so it is imperative to keep that from occurring.


Most (okay, all) teams will use these situations for their set-up men, and this is where those like Mike Francesa start oggling over the eighth inning guys. The fallacy here is the the eighth inning guy, almost by definition of the term, is not a team's best reliever, but the team's second best reliever, the one that teams most trust to get to their best reliever.

Has your head exploded yet?


At any rate, after tonight's game, I had a conversation with Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues.

I had previously asked via Twitter how many would have pitched Mariano in the 7th, and a large number of respondents said either that they would or that they would at least think about it.

I then brought up the issue that if you pitch Mariano for the seventh and maybe the eighth, and the Yankees don't score again, you are still left with a high-leverage ninth inning in which you cannot use Mo (the Hammer of G-d is, after all, 39) and have to choose from the remaining pitching staff.

Ben proposed this solution--and I swear your head IS going to explode--

You have Andy Pettitte pitch the ninth.



It's not abnormal for a starter to pitch in relief in the playoffs.

Starters are, by definition, better than relievers, and many teams, even playoff teams, lack a solid relief corps outside their closer and maybe one other guy.

We saw Jered Weaver pitch in relief tonight; in the past we've seen Mike Mussina do it in an ALCS game 7 against the Red Sox. There are other historical examples, as well.

You don't, as Ben suggests, pitch David Robertson in the ninth in a save situation, because there is an intangible aspect to a save that can't be ignored--see the Coke video above.

You go, instead, with the experienced hand.

In this scenario you don't even need to worry about Pettitte's start on Saturday--because you've effectively used Mariano, perhaps piggybacked with Robertson in the eighth, so you still have the lead in the ninth. Pettitte grabs three outs and the ALCS is over.



I am not the first person to suggest that a reliever's most important role is the ninth inning and I doubt I'll be the last.

Some day, a manager will come to the same conclusion and pitch their closer in the seventh to get through another team's 3-4-5. If that manager succeeds, he'll be branded a hero, visionary and genius, and if he fails, he'll be branded whatever his city's equivalent of "Clueless Joe".

The beauty of baseball is that it is a game that evolves, and that someone, somewhere, will try.

When you assume...

We assumed.

We assumed and we started to plan, as though all that was left was tying up some gift ribbons and signing the greeting card.

We forgot, in the process, that the Yankees still had to win the game.

They had to win the game, in Anaheim, against the best Angels pitcher. Even on paper it was no easy thing.

We assumed, and we were wrong.


You can attach blame wherever you'd like, though only assigning blame does not do much. As my father has told me, some are in love with assigning blame and others prefer to fix problems.

So, here we go:

Some will blame AJ Burnett, some Joe Girardi, and some Phil Hughes.

I am no baseball manager and I've never played in an organized baseball game, but this is what I would have done:

In the seventh inning, I let Burnett come out to start the inning. He's at 80 pitches and has more or less been doing all right since that let's-not-talk-about-it first inning.

Once Mathis reaches, that's when I replace Burnett, instead of giving him the chance to put the tying run on base.

The reliever I bring in is not Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, but David Robertson. I know, it doesn't make a lot of sense, but both Hughes and Chamberlain have been hit this postseason and Robertson has more or less worked some miracles.

At this rate, Robertson right now is the most valuable reliever not named Mariano Rivera.

This isn't to detract from what Hughes or Chamberlain have done this season--and without Hughes, especially, the Yankees aren't even playing tonight--but both have had issues this postseason.


If I leave AJ in to face the first two batters and they both reach, I consider bringing in Mariano Rivera. It's undoubtedly the highest leverage situation at that point, but my issue arises if the Yankees don't add any more insurance runs and the game goes to the ninth still a two run game and your team on the road.

***

Unlike most of you, I suspect, I'm not all that bothered by Girardi's decision to pinch run for Alex Rodriguez in the ninth.

With two outs, and down by one, you do anything you can to tie the score, and while Rodriguez isn't a Molina, Guzman is much more likely to score from first. Again, your team is down two outs, so you don't have any more outs with which to work.

Nick Swisher, of course, killed us all with the 3-2 pop up. I don't know if he was swinging at ball four or not, but the Yankees lost the game in the seventh, after coming so close to winning.

***

So we go back to New York.

The forecast on Saturday calls for rain and thunder.

After everything that's happened this season, the possibility of being able to clinch at home, in the rain--possibly even, well, you know how--has a certain romanticism to it.

October baseball lives on.

Singing the praises of the unsung

There are many heroes to choose from in last night's game.

The most obvious of these is easily Alex Rodriguez, who has gone from having a "Yankee moment" in game 2 of the ALDS to having a "Yankee postseason", pure and simple, but others should not be overlooked.

Like, for example, David Robertson.

Before this season started, we knew a few things about Robertson: he was rumored unhittable when he threw strikes, did not always throw strikes enough, and tended to have issues in high leverage situations.

Well, I must say, the ability to watch a pitcher mature throughout a season is a favorite pastime of many.

Phil Hughes would be the most glaring example--and no, I don't think he's slated for the bullpen permanently, but watching him turn from a question mark to a secret weapon to a not-so-secret weapon has been awesome.

One should not, however, forget Robertson.

In April, there is perhaps no way you trust Robertson in such a high-leveraged spot; in October he's now save the Yankees' collective behinds twice.

The ALDS game 2 performance is certainly flashier--bases loaded, no one out, and not giving up a run--while the ALCS performance involved pouring rain and pitching into Sunday morning.

It does say something about how important a pitcher is perceived by the fans when, as Girardi went to bring in Marte, Twitter was afloat with comments mostly akin to the tune of "we want D-Rob!"

As the Yankees postseason run continues--they are, at the very least, guaranteed at least four more games--more heroes will emerge.

The remaining games the Yankees have to play, however, would have a remarkably different tune without the contribution from the young right hander.

Fundamentals 2, Angels 0

Fundamentals. Fun-duh-MEN-tuls. Noun. 1) Something that is part of the foundation of another thing. 2) In sports, the key concepts that must be mastered before attempting advanced work.

Example: A fundamental concept of baseball is the ability to correctly catch and throw a baseball.

Example 2: Another fundamental concept of baseball is that when one's team takes the lead, that team is supposed to keep the other team from scoring.


Were the New York Yankees fundamentally sound tonight? No, not really--they had three errors in the game.

The difference, however, is that while the Yankees worked around their fundamental mishaps, the Angels did not.

Sure, AJ Burnett's wild pitch that led to the Angels tying the game at 2 could be considered an error if you'd like, but that was more typical bad-inning-AJ than it was poor fundamental play on the part of the Yankees.

On the other hand, the Angels' second error of the game directly caused the Yankees to score the winning run, a ground ball that should have gone for the sure out that went instead sailing past the target and allowing Jerry Hairston Jr. to score.

It won't be cast as an error, but attention should also be paid to the game tying home run Alex Rodriguez had in the eleventh inning.

From the Yankees' point of view, their third baseman has been the unequivocal MVP of the postseason thus far (though there is obviously a lot of way left to go). Rodriguez has hit three home runs this postseason, and every single one of those home runs has been a late-inning, game-tying shot; the two at Yankee Stadium coming in what, to that point, would have been the Yankees' last at bat.

From the Angels' point of view, it was a failure of their closer, Brian Fuentes, as the Angels now join the ranks of the teams that have blown a save or late-inning lead this postseason--Red Sox, Twins, Rockies, Phillies and Cardinals are all guilty here.

The Yankees?

Well, the legend of Mariano Rivera still grows.

He pitched two innings tonight, did not reach 30 pitches, and was simply outstanding.

According to the folks at Baseball Prospectus, teams that win championships need good defense, strike out pitchers and lock-down closers.

Is it any wonder, then, that the Yankees are the only team in 2009 to have not lost a postseason game?

****

There will be many comments about Joe Girardi overmanaging the bullpen. Indeed, this is my gut reaction as well.

The more I think about it, however, the more I'm not that bothered by it. Who expects a postseason game to go 13 innings, after all?

With the off-day tomorrow, all of the relievers will get their day of rest, so by the time they play again on Monday, it will be a non-issue.

On Bullpens and Nostalgia

Although the Yankees have played just three games in the postseason thus far, a clear pattern seems to be emerging in Joe Girardi's managerial style.

Girardi, as many Yankee fans will remember, was a member of the 1996 Yankee team and had, perhaps, one of the biggest hits in the series--a triple, hit by the most unlikely guy on the team to hit it.

So perhaps it's not much of a surprise, then, that Girardi is managing the Yankees as though the year still was 1996, some 13 (!) years ago. In all three games, Girardi went to the bullpen no later than the seventh inning, and while CC Sabathia's pitch count may have warranted the move, Andy Pettitte's, at a meager 81, did not.

In 1996, the starters left after six for the shut-down duo of Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland.

In 2009, the starters are being removed for the trio of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera. At least, theoretically, this is what's supposed to be happening.

More than once, however, Chamberlain was pulled before getting the final out of the inning. The example I am thinking of here is Friday night's game, where Chamberlain was pulled for Phil Coke. At the time the move worked, Coke got the strikeout that the Yankees needed, but it hurt the team later on when Damaso Marte was the only, and not very good, lefty in the bullpen in the eleventh inning.

The idea to use a shutdown bullpen a la 1996 is one I understand in theory, but not necessary execution.

It's one thing when you have a game where the starter is clearly gassed by the seventh inning, and thus there is no dilemma, but quite another where your playoff-experienced starter is pitching extremely well and you remove him for a relatively inexperienced (postseason, here) set-up crew.

What happens, then, is that when a game goes into extra innings, Girardi is soon left with a depleted bullpen that may have been avoided.

Again, the idea to shorten the game and get to Mariano as quickly as possible has a lot of merit, both historical and theoretical, but sometimes you will have a situation such as last night, where letting the starter go one more inning or even just one more out is just as prudent as going to the bullpen.

The Twins are easily a weaker opponent than the Angels, and any questionable bullpen decision could be obscured by the Yankees' brute strength that allowed them to overcome deficits in every game. With the Angels, the Yankees are unlikely to have this luxury, so Girardi's use of the bullpen has the potential to become true tabloid fodder.


The major difference I see between the 2009 and 1996 Yankees is that in 1996 the Yankees went to Rivera so quickly not just because Rivera was that good (and he was), but also because the caliber of the starters were not what they are in 2009.

The Yankees shortened the game in 1996 because they had to in order to succeed. The 2009 Yankees are lucky enough that this is not necessarily the case.

*****

So I realize this is kinda a downer post from me, so to cheer you up, have a look at the TV and radio calls of the final 2009 ALDS out

Yankees Sweep Twins, Move to ALCS

For the first time since October 2004, the Yankees won a postseason series.

Not only did they win the series, but they swept the way they were supposed to sweep, not like underachieving squads of not too long ago.

The game was similar to most of the Yankee-Twins games played this season: a close affair in which the Twins had a lead, lost it, and had one too many miscues to be able to recover.

Baserunning miscues may have coast the Twins two games this series, and the Yankees' ability to step on the Twins' neck, with two more runs in the ninth inning to turn a 2-1 nail-biter into a 4-1 game almost assured of being a sure thing with Mariano Rivera on the mound, Minnesota never had much of a chance.

No one will forget that the losing pitcher in this game was Carl Pavano, because it simply fits too well.

Pavano, in a sense, is THE symbol of the underachieving Yankee squads of recent note--$40 million to ride the disabled list, pitching just enough in 2008 to prove he can and get signed by another team in the offseason.

When motivated, Pavano is a decent pitcher--and he showed it tonight, matching Pettitte nearly pitch for pitch into the seventh inning.

Still, even the great Carl Pavano (note the biting sarcasm) could contain the Yankees forever. They were simply a better team than the Twins.

There are no MVPs awarded for the ALDS, but if there was such an award, there is no question that its recipient would be Alex Rodriguez.

How many of you thought you would be reading that sentence back in February?

Long the brunt of many a "but-he's-not-a-true-Yankee" criticism, Rodriguez was simply stellar throughout the series and tonight, again, played a hero, tying the game at one with a no-doubt home run into the stowed away football seats.



Andy Pettitte's pitching was also stellar--only one run through six and a third and only throwing 81 pitches in doing so.

There's a considerable question mark as to whether or not Pettitte should have been removed from the game at that point--and I would argue that Girardi simply remembers 1996 too well: going to a lock-down bullpen in the seventh inning to shorten the game, won championship #23.

It remains to be seen whether or not it will bring about #27, but for the moment Yankee fans can content themselves with the knowledge that no matter what, there will be at least four more games of Yankee baseball in 2009.


*****

Check back throughout the week for ALCS previews and analysis. Game one is Friday, 10/16.

Brian Bruney is not, uh, very good right now

With thanks to @glenngiangrande for the idea.


In 2007, Brian Bruney was not very good. Among fans, he had acquired the nickname "BBrian BBruney", and was eventually sent down to make room on this roster for a miracle prospect by the name of Joba Chamberlain.

Life wasn't very good.

So, Bruney worked his ass off during the winter and came to Spring Training in shape and throwing gas.

When 2008 started, Bruney was hands down the best non-Joba, non-Rivera pitcher in the bullpen.

Then, as we might remember, not too long into the season, Bruney slipped on a wet mound and injured his lisfranc, a odd sort of forewarning as to what would happen to Chien Ming Wang.

Bruney should have been out for the rest of the season, but he worked his way back and although the Yankees had mostly fallen out of the race by the time he came back, he was again throwing gas.

Life was good.

At the outset, 2009 looked much like the way 2008 ended for Bruney--with him as the best option in the 8th inning and one that was pretty darned good at his job.

Then Bruney got hurt.

He went on the DL, came off it, pitched a game, and went back on the DL.

Life has not been very good since.


Since coming of the DL the second time in June, take a gander at Bruney's stats:

Twenty-two hits in 18 innings pitched, 11 earned runs, thirteen walks and fifteen strike outs--yep, that's a near identical number for strike outs and walks.

That's good for a WHIP of 1.94.

WHIPs of 1.94 are bad enough for starters. For relievers, that's like watching the Enola Gay.

Now, WHIP is of course not the perfect stat--doesn't take into account things like inherited runners and it counts walks and hits as the same which is not necessarily always the case--but it's a fairly decent general marker.

Opponents are hitting .301/.409/.534/.943 (!!!) against him--which means that in addition to the high WHIP brought on by the walks, the hits against him tend to, uh, be hit kind of hard, too.



Once again, for a starter, these numbers would already be downright scary.

For a reliever to whom you once entrusted the entirety of the eighth inning, these numbers are, well, get-down-on-your-knees-and-thank-your-god-for-the-advent-of-Phil-Hughes-in-2009.


You might sit there and say "oh, it's just one reliever, big whoop", but since it does behoove the Yankees to be the best team they can be, we are getting precariously close--if not already there--where the the mop-up innings and long relief work that Mark Melancon could give would far outweigh what Bruney is doing--err, not doing.

With Alfredo Aceves, in all likelihood, still probably nursing some sort of shoulder problem (I'm not sure how else you explain his numbers post-All Star break), having another long reliever or pitcher-who-could-throw-long-relief might be beneficial.

In a couple of weeks the rosters expand and the Yanks can call people up without worrying about a corresponding move, but once October rolls around, (not a given, but if the Yankees don't make it, it would be quite the collapse) the rosters shrink back to 25 and decisions have to be made.

Bruney, as has been said by Pete Abraham among others, is right now playing himself off of that roster.

How Joe Girardi outmanaged Terry Francona

Managers, believe it or not, have less influence on a game's outcome than you'd think. Even so, it's still possible for managers to lose jobs based on one bad decision--Grady Little in 2003 may be the most notorious modern example.

This weekend, the Yankees sweeping the Red Sox had, for the most part, less to do with the managers than it does the Yankee offense in game one and starting pitching the rest of the time.

However, there were two clear instances in which Girardi managed (in my mind, anyway) better than Francona--and it may have cost Terry Francona both games.

1) Friday

Scoreless ties are both easy and hard to manage.

The easy part is that you can just let your starter pitch, at least into the seventh inning.

The hard part comes when the scoreless tie goes into extra innings. Which relievers do you use? Do you go by conventional baseball wisdom, in which you pitch your closer at home but not on the road? How much faith do you have in your offense?

Once the game reached the bottom of the ninth inning, Francona and Girardi employed two distinct strategies:

Joe Girardi used his relievers as long as it was reasonable to do so. Mariano Rivera pitched the ninth--conventional wisdom at work here--, but Girardi didn't push him for the 10th. Instead, Girardi called on long man Alfredo Aceves who was spectacular for three innings. Given that Aceves has been sore of late, even three innings may have been pushing it a tad, and there was no question of a fourth, so Girardi went next to Brian Bruney. Bruney has struggled of late, but on Friday night he was stellar in the first inning so Girardi brought him out for a nail-biting second. Coke was used in the top of the fifteenth, and all told the Yankees managed to stay away from David Robertson, Mark Melancon and did not overuse Phil Hughes.

Terry Francona decided, instead of using his relievers for multiple innings, used more for shorter stints. For the relievers like Hideki Okajima and Daniel Bard, this might not have been a bad thing--they are, after all, short relievers, but it did mean that more relievers had to be used--and the Red Sox, apparently, don't have a true long man in their bullpen. It meant that in the fifteenth inning Junichi Tazawa was making his Major League debut in a spot where he was probably destined to fail. A starter, in the fifteenth inning, at Yankee Stadium...ycch.

Does this have more to do with bullpen construction--Girardi had Aceves, Francona didn't--or how the two managed? In this case, the most likely explanation is that the former led to the latter. The game was, after all, important enough for Francona to use Papelbon while the game was still tied, which goes against the grain of conventional wisdom.

Still, one has to wonder if it would have been possible for any of Boston's other relievers to pitch even just an extra out or two--and thus not have to resort to the last man in the bullpen.


2) The second instance came in last night's game. Twofold.

A: Joe Girardi used Phil Coke for two reasons:

1) Phil Hughes had pitched four games out of five. This has less to do with total innings pitched or pitches thrown than it does the process of getting into a game--getting hot, as it's called--is exertion itself. Even the great Mariano doesn't pitch five games out of six, except in the postseason.

2) If the game--a one run game at the time went into extra innings, the Yankees needed to save the pitchers, like Chad Gaudin, that could pitch multiple innings, and as long as the game was close, Mariano Rivera was probably going to pitch the ninth.


The two-run home run to Victor Martinez stung for a number of reasons, but Coke, the lefty, would be who you want pitching to Martinez, who has far better numbers against righties.

After the home run, it should be remembered, Coke did induce a double play to end the inning.


B: In the bottom of the inning, Daniel Bard got two quick outs for Boston, and then gave up the solo home run to Johnny Damon. After Damon's home run, then, one has to consider why Francona did not bring in Okajima to pitch to Mark Teixeira. Okajima--along with Papelbon--had been warming in the bullpen, and it may have made some sense to have Teixeira batting from the other side.

It could, of course, simply be that the events unfolded too fast for Francona to think about it much, but then Francona still left Bard in to face Rodriguez and Posada--who both reached base. At that point Francona went to Okajima, but it could be argued that by then the damage had done.

Of course, some of the blame here should be on the relievers themselves. Bard and Okajima didn't get the job done and spotted the Yankees four runs and a bat-around inning all after two outs.



This is not to say that Girardi has not made bad decisions, or that it's not a heck of a lot easier to manage when your team is winning, but these moments stand out.

There's a much different feeling in NY this morning if it's a 2-2 split and not a 4-0 sweep.

Bring on the Sox (Postgame Notes 5 August 2009)

Admit it, because I will: at the start of this game, it would have taken a coin flip to decide which mix was more volatile: ammonia mixed with bleach or Sergio Mitre on turf.

While Mitre didn't exactly pitch well--and that's a generous assessment as he could not make it out of the fourth--he did, however, limit the damage to three Toronto runs.

The Yankees then got some help from Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes and David Robertson--all of whom were excellent, and, once they grabbed the lead in the seventh, seemed to cruise to an 8-4 victory.

The Yankees struggled to score runs early, but, as they have done so often this season, did their damage in the latter innings--scoring six of their runs tonight in the seventh inning or later.

What does it all mean?

The past three games, the Yankees have played some great baseball after playing some rather bad baseball in the first three games of the White Sox set.

The offense seems to tailor its performance to exactly what's needed, scoring runs at the right time, and not all in the same way, either.

Make no mistake, the upcoming four-game set with Boston is huge, and the biggest game of the series is tomorrow. Win the first game of that set and they will automatically excise the Boston demons. Win tomorrow and the Yankees are assured that no matter what else happens they'll still be in first place on Monday morning.

Win tomorrow and Joba Chamberlain can continue to prove all us naysayers wrong.

Win tomorrow and much will be well.


One game in a baseball season rarely changes everything, but sometimes it can mean just that little bit more.

That's tomorrow's game.

It's too late in the season for excuses.

Breaking Down the Yankees for the Second Half - The Bullpen

[So the All Star Game is officially over--and we can thus consider ourselves in the second half.

This is where it gets fun.

All of those days players got rested in the first half? Well, now they have to play. Now the pennant races start to heat up, and every move a team makes, be it a trade, a free agent signing or simply bringing someone up from AAA has even more added meaning.

What do we expect from the Yankees?

I'm going to do a series of posts addressing this, because there's so much to say that having it all in one post would a) kill your eyes and mine, and b) give me carpal tunnel at the age of 23.]

Since this is the last post in the series, I'll provide you with an index:

The Rotation
The Lineup, Part 1
The Lineup, Part 2
The Bench

Now it's on to the mother of all things Yankees:

The Bullpen

To do this post justice, one has to figure out who should be included, and who might be a little more expendable--since bullpens are fluid and change so much over the course of a season.

In this instance I'm going to settle around the "core" of Mariano Rivera, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Brian Bruney, David Robertson and Brett Tomko--the guys that have been around (or should have been around) all season. Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo will get passing nods, but we'll go ahead and pretend that Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez were not utterly awful.

As a whole, the bullpen struggled early--when most of the rotation did, as well--but the call-up of Alfredo Aceves seemed to work miracles. That one move allowed for the short relievers to remain short relievers, for Coke and Hughes to basically claim the eighth between them and for Robertson and Tomko not to be faced with undue pressure.

When Aceves was moved from the bullpen for a spot start, we saw the 'pen fall apart again--though, this time, fortunately, the All Star break came at exactly the right time.

As long as Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte are utterly ineffective, look for Aceves to remain in the bullpen.

(The so-called bullpen core in alphabetical order)

Alfredo Aceves

The statistics will tell you that Alex Rodriguez, and not Alfredo Aceves is the more valuable of the two Yankees to make their first appearance this season in early May, but Aceves' value lies in far more than just the numbers he's posted.

The easiest way to explain what Aceves has meant to the Yankees in 2009 out of the bullpen would be to say that Aceves is pitching in a role similar to that of Ramiro Mendoza, but his numbers out of the bullpen are actually closer to what Mariano Rivera posted in 1996.

Since Aceves can pitch multiple innings at a time without getting worn down, the short relievers--especially guys like Phil Coke and David Robertson--do not have to pitch nearly as much as they otherwise would. This not only saves their arms from, uh, being Proctor'd, but helps keep them more effective over the long haul.

Look for Aceves to remain in the bullpen for now--after the disaster in Anaheim, the Yankees probably don't want to mess with the bullpen too much--but if Mitre, the presumed new fifth starter, bombs and the Yankees decide not to go after Halladay (or another, you know, more attainable starter), Aceves could end up the fifth starter.

In which case we will all have to hold our breath in the second halves of games started by Chamberlain and Pettitte.


Brian Bruney

The season that, for Bruney, started with so much promise has quietly turned into a disaster. He'd earned himself the eighth inning role before going down on the DL with an elbow problem, worked his way back only to go back on it after just one appearance, and now seems to have lost the command that had been so important in the first place.

In short, it's the return of the 2007 version of Brian Bruney.

The Yankees really want to get him right--if he can somehow recover his arm strength and command, the Yankees could consider, more seriously, the idea of sending Hughes down to AAA to stretch him out as a starter (although I explain here why I don't think it would work), but even if Bruney did recover, the risk inherent in relying on a power pitcher who's twice been on the DL in the same season with elbow problems is an enormous one.

It's a shame, really, because Bruney showed so much promise in 2008 before hurting his foot, and then again in early 2009.

I don't know what happened for Bruney to have such awful karma, but something apparently did.

Going forward, Bruney will likely be used in low-leverage situations until his command improves, or he will be used in mop-up like roles after the starters (yet again) are inefficient. He'll have to work his way back to the 8th and even then there is no guarantee.


Phil Coke

The battle between Good Coke and Bad Coke may be as addicting to watch as the battle between Good Melky and Bad Melky. Actually, the entire reason to want to see him pitch is to watch the postgame interviews afterward.

Coke struggled in the beginning, found a groove, and then struggled again in his most recent appearance in Anaheim.

On the whole, he's been fairly dependable, but tends to give up too many hits--6 HR in 38 IP is not a portent for good things to come--so the Yankees are best served if he is used very sparingly, which, thanks to Aceves and Hughes, he now is.

Should Dámaso Marte stop playing catch and start playing baseball, he could help ease some of Coke's LOOGY duties, and provide some relief for the Yankees, who are playing with fire.


Phil Hughes

Probably the most controversial reliever, not because he's pitched poorly, but because he probably should have never been in the bullpen in the first place.

As a starter, Hughes wasn't exactly dominating anywhere outside of Texas, but he was getting better, and showing improved consistency and efficiency. Considering that this is his first healthy season since all the way back in 2006, that's not something to be taken lightly.

As a reliever, Hughes has just dominated. You can see the splits here, but to sum:

Hughes' ERA is 0.98, his BAA is .115, OBPA is .182 and WHIP is 0.655.

Hughes has only pitched 18.1 innings in relief, and his BABIP is an insane .147, so there's certainly a case to be made that the law of averages will catch up to him, but with relievers much of the time, you only have a small sample size to use, so you ride the hot arm as long as it stays hot.

If the Yankees have learned only one thing here, it's that if Hughes, for whatever reason, loses his value as a starter next season, he still has plenty of value as a reliever.

Look for him to keep the 8th inning role in the second half unless the Yankees have utterly no choice but to stretch him out again. If that happens, than the Yankees will probably have bigger issues than what they do about the eighth inning...


Mariano Rivera

He's Mo. Really.

He was getting hit more often in the beginning of the season, which had some worried, but this seems to have been a result of recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and perception, since what he did last season was simply historic.

He's back to his old Mo self now, notching his 500th save and 1st career ERA in the same game.

In the second half, the Yankees probably won't want anything more than for him to keep doing his thing. Wearing number 42, he is, after all, the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything.


David Robertson

The easiest way to explain Robertson in this: when he throws strikes, he's unhittable. When he doesn't, he's unwatchable.

When Robertson comes into a game in low-leverage situations, he throws strikes.

When Robertson comes into a game in high-leverage situations, he throws balls.

You can see why this is a problem.

In a mop-up type role, Robertson is fine for the bullpen, but the problem is that the Yankees play a lot more close games than they do blowouts, and they need relievers that can either protect a lead or keep another team's lead within reach.

Look for him to stick to low-leverage situations, and don't be shocked if some combination of Chien Ming Wang getting healthy again and Sergio Mitre pitching well sends him back on the AAA bus--though likely not before Melancon or Albaladejo.


Brett Tomko

The problem with Tomko is that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

Though a former starter, right now he can't really pitch more than two innings at a time, and he's seldom seen in anything other than a mop-up role or in an extra inning game when all other pitchers have been used.

That said, I think he does get a bit of a bum rap--for what it's worth, Coke has given up more home runs. Then again, Coke's pitched 38 innings and Tomko's only pitched 20...

Although Tomko is a DFA candidate, it would seem more likely that Mark Melancon or Jonathan Albaladejo would be sent back down to Scranton before the Yankees parted ways with Tomko. We shall see.

Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo

Melancon, once hailed as the future Mo, was probably called up from AAA Scranton too soon. He's struggled in AAA since being sent back down, and again since being called up. There's too much talent to write him off, but he does need some more time.

Albaladejo didn't pitch well early and got sent down, has pitched lights out when recalled after Wang got hurt the second time, but then got sent back down...to make room for Melancon.

If Girardi is riding the hot reliever, right now he should stick with Albaladejo.



dude, if you made it this far, I kind of want to hug you...

How Reactivating Chien Ming Wang Messed With Phil Hughes

Recently, I've been seeing a lot of posts suggesting that to solve the rotation problems, the Yankees should move Phil Hughes back from the bullpen to the rotation.

On the surface, it's hard to disagree with this.

As a starter, Hughes this season was showing improvement outside of one disastrous Baltimore start. He was gradually becoming more efficient, less tentative and better at keeping a bad inning from imploding.

Things, in short, were going well.

Then the Yankees panicked in re-activating Chien Ming Wang from the DL, and things got hairy.

After a time it became clear that the Yankees couldn't keep Wang in the bullpen, or else risk losing all the arm strength that he had built up. Long story short, Hughes got sent to the bullpen.


And here the problem begins.


Hughes, out of the bullpen, has primarily been a one inning, and rarely a two inning pitcher. Since he's been so efficient out of the bullpen--he's had more than one nine pitch inning--at most, right now, I'd say he could throw about thirty pitches.

What does this mean?

If you were to tell Hughes tomorrow that he was starting again, he could probably pitch about two innings before tiring.

Now, some have suggested that the Yankees use the All Star break to stretch Hughes out, but here they are missing something: it takes longer than just a week to stretch a pitcher from a reliever to a starter.

There are two players to look at as models: Alfredo Aceves and Joba Chamberlain.

Aceves made a spot start last Thursday, which on the surface would seem to be a reliever-to-starter transition without a period of stretching. There are, however, two caveats: 1) Aceves was already a long reliever. Him pitching four innings the Sunday previous was not a terrible strain because he has already spent much of this season giving the Yankees two or three innings at a time, and 2) he only did pitch into the fourth inning--65 pitches on the nose--which ended up taxing the bullpen that day and bleeding into the next three.

The better example to look at is Joba Chamberlain.

Chamberlain had, in '07 and the first two months of'08, been an eighth-inning short reliever, but the Yankee plan was always for him to be a starter, so, towards, but not at, the end of May 2008, they announced plans to turn Chamberlain into a starter.

They had him first pitch longer stints out of the bullpen, and then, in the beginning of June, he made his first start--limited in pitch count, he did not get out of the third inning.

By the time Chien Ming Wang had gotten hurt, Chamberlain had stretched out not quite enough to pitch a complete game, but enough to pitch himself into the sixth-or-so inning, so that instead of the Yankees looking for another one starter, they looked instead for a five starter and found Sidney Ponson. You can debate the merits of this idea at your leisure, but that's not our concern here.

It took nearly a month for Chamberlain to go from set-up man, a role similar to what Hughes is doing now, to a full fledged starter--and it was not long afterward that Chamberlain hurt his shoulder. While the back-breaker was likely a fall Chamberlain took in Texas, the injury was likely building for some time--whether or not it had to do with the pitching transition, we can only guess, but it's highly doubtful that the Yankees would overlook it.


If Hughes took the same trajectory, in that the Yankees started to stretch him out now, we would be looking at the middle of August before he would really be a full-fledged starter. One needs to forget that Hughes started the season as a starter; after so long in the bullpen the arm strength and endurance that was there has likely gone.

Waiting until mid-August in the thick of a division race that will likely be decided by one or two games at most is not in the Yankees' best interests, especially when one considers how burnt out the bullpen would get covering for Hughes in the first few innings when a pitch count would prevent him from going more than four or five innings.

Should Hughes be in the bullpen long term? Absolutely not. Next season, he should come to Spring Training a starter and then remain a starter all through the season.

If the goal, however, is winning the World Series in 2009, the Yankees can't afford to muddle with Hughes for a month and risk exposing the bullpen even more. We saw the trouble that comes when Aceves is removed from the bullpen this week; any time the bullpen has to pitch more than two or three innings, especially in a row, it resists over-exposure--and then it gets hit. With Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte already so inefficient, Hughes on a limited pitch count is exactly the thing the Yankees don't need.


There's no one to blame on this one but the Yankees themselves.

The Yankees, for whatever reason, appeared to have not thought it through entirely in bringing Wang back before coming up with a plan for Hughes.

In an over-used cliché, "it is what it is", and the Yankees will have to make their peace with it.

This is a Blasphemous Post

Yesterday, on our three hour ride back from the postponed Scranton doubleheader, Brent and I got into an argument about Alfredo Aceves.

I maintained that the best comparison for what he's done this season is Ramiro Mendoza.

Brent suggested the 1996 version of Mariano Rivera.

As you might imagined, I laughed it off completely.

And then Brent got me the stats.


In 1996, Mariano had a 2.06 ERA. A WHIP of .994, 6.1 h/9, an ERA+ of 239 (!!!) 2.8 walks per nine, 10.9 K's per nine and 3.82 K/BB. Mo stats

In 2009, Aceves has an ERA of 2.02, a WHIP of .925, 6.8 h/9, an ERA+ of 216 (!!), 1.6 walks per nine, 7.7 K's per nine and 4.86 K/BB. Ace stats



Now, there is of course the caveat that Ace's 40 innings pitched do not equal Mo's 100+ innings pitched, but at the halfway point of the season the 40 IP is not a horrendously small sample size.



Of course, the major difference between Mo and Aceves is that Mo is, well, Mo with the CUTTER OF DOOM, but he didn't develop the cutter until 1997, while playing catch with Ramiro Mendoza (you see, in baseball things come full circle).


So in 1996 Mo had yet to discover the pitch that would set him apart, and yet many who remember would say Mo was an invaluable resource as to why the Yankees won that world series.

Now look at 2009 and what Aceves is doing--outperforming Mo (even if only by a little) in ERA, WHIP, BB/9 and K/BB.


Aceves won't turn into Mo, because what Mo has done over his career is un-matchable, unless Mo wants to teach Ace that cutter, but...

...I don't know what the Yankees expected when they signed Aceves.

I don't think it was this.

The Woes of Brian Bruney

"Bruney's our 8th-inning guy" --Joe Girardi, 1 July 2009

Brian Bruney did not pitch the 8th inning of that game, a Yankee win; nor did he pitch the eighth inning today, also a Yankee win.

Instead, those innings were given to a combination of Phil Coke and Phil Hughes, who, to their credit, have been nearly unhittable of late.

As you might imagine, the media harped on it.

Now, as a fan, the only thing you really care about is your team winning--usually, anyway.

It really shouldn't matter who pitches the 8th inning, as long as the job gets done to a reasonable degree of competency.

So the issue that I'm about to bring up now, is not so much who should be pitching the 8th--heck, if Nick Swisher can pitch a competent 8th I'd be okay with that, too--but how the manager, Joe Girardi, answered questions regarding Bruney.

The way Girardi phrased it tonight was, "Bruney is our 8th inning guy, but we have to get him right."

It sounds like a much, much too PC term for: Bruney's been throwing like crap and I don't trust him to keep a lead right now.

Girardi wouldn't be wrong in thinking this--Bruney has struggled since coming off of the disabled list--but what interested me was when Girardi said "we've had some conversations with Bruney" and then left it at that.

What sort of conversations?

I don't want to read into this too much. It's hard to read into what Girardi says a lot of times, since, like many Yankees, he can say a lot and only say a little. (Mark Teixeira might be the polar opposite of this).

What I do get, however, is a bit of an undercurrent that Girardi does not currently have faith in Bruney to hold a close lead.

It happens.

Pitchers struggle, just as hitters slump.

What we appear to be left with, however, is for the foreseeable future is a bullpen, which, in front of Mo, ranks:

P Hughes
P Coke
A Aceves
D Robertson
B Bruney
B Tomko

That's quite a shaft for your 8th-inning guy, no?

Still, though, the Yankees do need Bruney. The bullpen is that much better when every reliever, and not just two or three, can perform well in any situation, and not just low-leverage ones.

If Bruney's struggles have to do with having lost arm strength while being on the DL--which seems possible--then only time can build it back up. As Girardi said, Bruney has missed, more or less, two months and is basically at a Spring Training level all over again.

This would seem to mean that the Yankees have to be extremely cautious about him--and perhaps, then, credit is due to Girardi for going to the Phils and not putting more stress on Bruney's arm.

Then again, if, for whatever reason, Bruney can't pitch, the Yankees have a real problem on their hands.

Yanks' Grit it Out Against Mariners (postgame notes 30 June 2009)

Given that Mariano Rivera threw out tonight's ceremonial first pitch and that Joba Chamberlain was starting, it is perhaps not surprising that in the end it came down to the bullpen.

Joba Chamberlain started, and while he wasn't horrible in any sense of the word, he also wasn't very good, or even mildly good.

He struggled with command, and once again seemed to nibble too much, being afraid to attack the zone after going 0-2 on hitters. To be sure, the hits the Mariners had off of Joba were more of the bloop than the blast variety, but he threw too many pitches and much too many out of the strike zone.

For much of the game, the Yankee offense muddled about in a state of semi-consciousness.

The first three runs came on an error, a sac fly and a groundout--and they were 0-9 with RISP at one point.

However, as soon as the Mariners tied the game (which they did twice), the Yankees' offense would come right back, doing, once again, just enough to make sure the team wins. The offense did look best in the bottom of the 8th inning.



The story line about this game, however, will center around the 8th inning.

In the seventh, Joe Girardi had gone to Phil Hughes to pitch, and Hughes set the Mariners' down, in order, on nine pitches.

As many have opined, there was no real reason to take Hughes out of a game, especially since he needs his innings.

Still, Girardi played, once again, by the book and brought in his presumed 8th inning guy, Brian Bruney.

As has been the case since Bruney came off of the disabled list, he struggled and, in this case blew the 5-3 lead.

The question of what should have been done will, no doubt, fill the non-Mets-related talk on WFAN tomorrow; and opinions will probably be very varied.

Me? I would have stuck with Hughes, not because of a lack of faith in Bruney, but because Hughes has been so dominant and because Hughes could use the work. You might entirely disagree.


Ultimately, the Yankees got the win on a night Boston lost (check out those highlights if you can. Seriously.), and all is well.

Hughes in Pen a Bullish Problem (Score One for Bad Puns!)

Let me make something clear, before I get into the meat of this post:

Long term, Phil Hughes is a starter. That's why the Yankees drafted him, and that's where he will end up long term. As it should be.

In fact, right now, as Joe P. of River Ave Blues told me, Hughes is the Yanks' fourth-best starter.


The thing is, Phil Hughes' pitching well in the bullpen, and Chien Ming Wang not pitching poorly enough to show that he should be removed from the rotation means that right now, there's probably not a very big push from Yankees' brass to get Hughes back in the rotation.

If Wang keeps pitching at a not-quite-catastrophic level, there's less time (this season) for Hughes to stretch out as a starter. Keeping him as a long reliever was a good idea, but Hughes is also being used in short relief stints, and he is not starting every five days, as would be more beneficial to his development.

The issue here is that the Yankees are hamstrung by Wang's situation, and, as has been previously discussed, they can't just simply take him out of the rotation without there being consequences, that include risking losing a former 19-game-winner to another team.

It would be easier to say that the Yankees should drop Wang if his last starts had been catastrophic like his first ones, but, while they haven't been spectacular (or necessarily that good), they haven't been horrendous. Giving up three runs each in two starts is not horrendous, and had the Yankees' offense not decided to take that week in June off, the Yankees could have won those games. (It's also worth noting that the Washington start included one horrendous call, that if it had gone Wang's way, would have likely gotten him out of the inning without the runs scoring. Or at least gotten him closer to it. Fallacy of the predetermined outcome, and all. Michael Kay would be proud).


The one possibility that keeps getting mentioned is that when Joba reaches his innings limit, he and Hughes will simply switch places.

This is deceptively simple, as it would mean Hughes would have to stretch out again, and if Joba doesn't hit his cap until, say, the end of August, there simply may not be enough time for this to have any realistic success.


It's quite a pickle the Yankees have gotten themselves into.


At least, to be optimistic, the Yankees have the luxury of having too many starters. Most teams would kill for that.

Rivera's Struggles on Saturday Due to Stomach Bug

River Ave Blues sums it up nicely:

"Rivera was not fine. According to a teammate, as we learn from Yahoo’s Dave Brown, Mo was under the weather before the game.

For several hours before Rivera took the ball Saturday afternoon in that tie game, he’d suffered with a stomach ailment that brought aches and repeated vomiting, according to one Yankee. Rivera had rolled off the trainer’s table, where he’d hoped to sleep it off, and into the bullpen in the eighth inning, when he began to warm up.

I think that wording is a bit off. He didn’t suffer the stomach ailment before he took the ball. Anyone who’s had a stomach bug — and that’s everybody here — knows it doesn’t just go away. They don’t call it a 24-hour bug for nothing. Mo pitched anyway, and we all saw the results. "



Now, I have had more than my fair share of stomach bugs, including one that hit while walking home from the (school) bus stop, one the last day of class my senior year in high school and another that hit the night of my 21st birthday.

I know when they hit me, I am down for the count. I can't do anything but lie in bed and sip flat Coke.

That Mo got up and pitched at all is a testament to a super human will, even if it was, in retrospect, a poor decision.

Now we just have to hope the virus hasn't spread throughout the clubhouse.

Screw Baseball Logic. Rivera Should Have Been Pitching (postgame notes 31 May 2009)

Conventional baseball wisdom is a funny thing.

Conventional baseball wisdom states that in a tie game, on the road, you don't pitch your closer beccause there's always the chance that your team will take the lead and you will need someone to pitch the bottom of that inning.

Conventional baseball wisdom, however, also assumes a few things.

It assumes that the rest of your pitching staff is functional and that your other relievers won't have an issue throwing strikes.

It makes the assumption that everything is playing exactly as it should play.

As you might imagine, the problem with this is that this scenario rarely occurs.

Case in point: today's Yankees' game.

Going into the bottom of the ninth in a tie game, the best pitcher the Yankees had left in their bullpen was their closer, Mariano Rivera.

Now, if the Yankees didn't want to pitch Rivera to start the inning, that's one thing, but once Phil Coke gave up the lead off walk and that runner reached scoring position, the move to go to the unreliably wild David Robertson over Mariano Rivera is baffling once you disregard conventional wisdom.

Even if the Yankees take the lead the next inning, it's not as though Rivera's never pitched two innings before...and while it's understandable that you might not want Mo to pitch two innings, surely then you're more comfortable throwing Robertson or Aceves or whomever out there with the lead than in a tie game while Rivera sits unused.

Having worked exactly once since last Sunday, it's hardly like Rivera's been overtaxed.

Sometimes the best managers are the ones who take conventional logic, and then precede to say, "screw it".

*****

Otherwise, the game was nothing to get too upset about--Carl Pavano pitched well, but the Yankees struck when Wedge took him out of the game. Teixeira had all four Yankee RBI; Hughes had one bad inning in the third and it kept him from pitching more than five, though he wasn't awful and the game never got out of hand.

Yankees will have a chance to take the series tomorrow evening.

Looking at the Yankees on an Off Day

The Yankees have not only picked up the pace in the last few weeks; they've moved into a tie for first in the AL East.

Let's take a look at how they got there.

Starting Pitching

This has probably been the greatest improvement. The Yankees are 12-4 in their last sixteen games; in only two of the losses did they allow more than five runs. In six games, the opposition has been held to two runs or less and in 12 games the opposition has been held to four runs or less.

It's a far cry from the 15-5 and 22-4 blowouts of April.

Let's take a closer look.

• CC Sabathia: Has turned it on. He lost his last start, to Philadelphia, but this has more to do with Hamels pitching well than him pitching poorly. He beat Baltimore and Toronto, allowing a grand total of three runs in those games, and perhaps most importantly, win or loose he always seems good to throw eight innings, which helps to save a really taxed bullpen.

• Phil Hughes: Has decided he really wants to stay in the rotation, apparently. he had a couple rough starts, but got better and in his last start against Texas was fantastic. With the exception of the one start in Baltimore where everything came undone in the second, the most notable accomplishment for him has been the way he's bent, but not broken, with men on base. last season all of those men score. This season they don't. Phil's growing up.

• Joba Chamberlain: Seems to have figured out the first inning woes by throwing a simulated inning before the start of the game, but needs to work on efficiency. Not sure if Joba's last start was a result of his poor numbers against Texas or some leftover weakness from getting hit in the leg with a line drive; probably a combination of both. I am wholeheartedly against moving him to the bullpen since i think it would kill his arm, but he does need to become more efficient.

• AJ Burnett: Had a couple tough luck outings, with a loss against Halladay and then a no decision against Minnesota; gave up absolute bombs to Philadelphia, but yesterday, thank your deity(ies), was very good against the Rangers. 118 pitches in six innings is too many; but six shutout innings a team will take every time.

• Andy Pettitte: He's been Andy Pettitte-ish. He'll give up hits and occasional runs, but somehow, as if by magic, always keeps the team in the game. He's been perfectly cast as the team's fifth starter; not quite his role in Yankee teams of yesteryear, but he's doing exactly as the Yankees needed him to do, and he's still historically a better second half pitcher.

• Chien Ming Wang: Now pitching out of the bullpen despite not being a bullpen arm. The trouble is, if Hughes keeps pitching well Girardi will be in no hurry to remove him from the rotation. It's an odd problem to have: too much starting pitching and not enough bullpen.

The Offense

Let's see here.

Since the last off day, the Yankees have scored at least three runs every game but one--and that was Halladay's start. In their wins, the Yankees have scored five or more runs ten times.

Even while missing Nady and Posada, and for most intents and purposes, Swisher, the offense is working like a $200 million team.

• Derek Jeter: Seems to have slowed his decline just enough. He's never hit for a whole ton of power, but seems much improved in that department over last season. He's still, perhaps, not entirely suited for the lead off role, but it's drastially reducing the team's GIDP that makes it all worthwhile.

• Johnny Damon: Has cooled off a little bit, but since he had basically been carrying the team for a while now, he's allowed. The right porch at the Stadium suits him perfectly and has turned him into a legitimate power threat at home.

• Mark Teixeira: There aren't really words to describe how awesome he's been since A-Rod has come back and, well, offered him protection in the line up. He's got twelve home runs already in May and is now in the league lead in that department. We knew he'd heat up in May with the warmer weather...but I'm not sure anyone expected this.

• Alex Rodriguez: Still has more home runs than singles and the scary thing (for other teams) is that his timing, while better, is still not all the way there. Now, if he had some serious protection in the line up--Matsui and Canó can be too streaky--there is no limit to the damage he could do.

• Robinson Canó: Was insanely hot, then cooled off, and now is pretty warm again. He is night and day with himself last year, and the Yanks are probably pretty happy they got the 'day' version this year.

• Melky Cabrera: Already has three walk off hits this season. It's not just that he's taking better ABs (and he is), it's that he's making them count. The shoulder injury looked painful on TV, but if what we're hearing is right than the injury should not be too devastating. At the very least, nothing is broken or dislocated and small mercies though they be, they still count.

• Nick Swisher: has cooled off something awful. He needs a day off (or three), but until Nady is back and with Melky hurt it won't happen any time soon. He's still managed to keep a very good attitude about the whole thing, but you can see he's pressing. Every hitter slumps; it's not the slump that matters so much as whether or not you can get yourself out of it.

• Hideki Matsui: Had also been slumping awful and then he hit two home runs last night Maybe the change of scenery was what he needed; at any rate, he needs a few more games before we can call the slump over.

• Brett Gardner: Seems to have his bwest games when coming in off the bench for someone that's been injured or tossed. Melky's getting the better swings; but Gardner doesn't look as lost as he did earlier in the season. Plenty of players--ie, Miguel Cairo--have fashioned lengthy careers off the bench.

• Ramiro Peña: Also been slumping, but the difference is he was never supposed to hit in the first place. His defense makes up for it, though. So the Yankees will take it.

• Francisco Cervelli: I thought this kid was a Mendoza line hitter at AA? He's still got virtually no power, but the fact that he's not an automatic out--and, in fact, has come up big in a few clutch situations--is not really going to upset anyone, either. He continues to do all the little things right and now there's debate if the Yannkees should keep him or Molina on the roster when Molina comes back.

• Kevin Cash: Has likely seen his last game action, which is okay, because he was pretty painful to watch with the bat.

• Angel Berroa: Who?
  

• Jorge Posada, José Molina and Xavier Nady have not played since the last off day.

The Bullpen

Oh, that bullpen. It's been better, but better does not necessarily mean good.

• José Veras: I loved him last year I do not love him this year. i don't know where that control went but it doesn't look like it's going to come back.

• Phil Coke: He's been okay. If you can find it, his postgame comments after his first (and probably only) career save are well worth a listen. It's hard not to like a pitcher who is so candid with the media, but asking the 8th inning of him may be a little too much.

• Alfredo Aceves: Alfredo Mendoza. Seriously, there's nothing else to say. Dude is great. Not perfect, but the best Mendoza-like guy we've hand in ates. If only Girardi would stop trying to proctor him...

• Brett Tomko: Has been kind of what we expected. Okay in low leverage situations; hold your breath in a tie game.

• Mariano Rivera: Between the walk offs and the blow outs he's not gotten a whole lot of pitching opportunities. Still, having seemed to have overcome his dead arm, Mo's the most reliable thing the Yankees have outside of, well anything. For what it's worth, it's Mo that's done and told AJ to "get the pie ready" during the walk offs, and Mo that sat as judge during the kangaroo court.

The Yankees are 3-3 in their last six but 12-4 in their last 16. The most impressive thing here is that they've followed each loss with a win, as if to say that they can't wait for their next nine game winning streak.