So the Yankees have a budget, after all (?) (!)

Or, Another way of considering the Trade Deadline


I have been told that I look for causation in everything.

I don't deny the charge. My background, as a student in history, is such that I do so by habit. If there is a Y, there must be an X.

Sometimes, there is multiple causation. Take, for instance, any great war. There is, at face value, multiple causes.

Even so, for the general rule of things, one simple rule applies: the simplest explanation is often the best.

Such, I have argued, is the case with Joba Chamberlain--pitching innings in the major leagues now that should have been pitched in the minor leagues, Chamberlain faces the normal developmental struggles a young pitcher should expect without the aid of a safety net. Fortunately for the Yankees and their fans, Chamberlain seems to have figured something out in his last few starts, but this is digression.


I would like to consider both these stipulations: that I always look for causation, which hinders my argument, and that the simplest explanation (Occam's Razor) is the best, which helps it.

I would like to consider both of these and apply them to the Yankees' recent behavior this trade deadline, a comment made by Joe Girardi after tonight's game, and what we may be hearing bandied about.


I am going to start, however, by asking you to think back to Christmas 2008, or, a couple of days before.

The Yankees had already shocked no one by signing CC Sabathia to a seven-year, $161 million contract. They had already shocked some by signing AJ Burnett to a five-year, $83 million contract.

Then, the bombshell announcement: the Yankees had signed Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180 million contract.

For the fans, this seemed like Christmas, indeed. The top three free agents in that off-season all ended up in pinstripes, and all locked up for what may very well amount to the defining portion of their careers. All three capable of all-star caliber play. All three clear upgrades over what the Yankees had in those positions in 2007 and 2008.

All three more expensive than most teams could afford, even had the American (and global) economy not collapsed in the preceding autumn.

While my younger brother and I were celebrating the Teixeira signing, my older brother issued a stern warning: "I don't like what the Yankees are doing. It's going to drain them. They're going to go bankrupt if they continue like this."

Now, the comment might be taking things to an extreme, but it appears that it is not wholly without merit.

Consider the activity and non-activity surrounding the trade deadline:

• The Yankees, in first place and with one of the top three records in baseball in the weeks preceding, did not need to move mountains. They had--and still have--a need at the fifth starter, a need made all the more urgent when it became abundantly clear that Chien Ming Wang would not return this season. The Yankees already had a need at the position, since from the start of the season it was known that Joba Chamberlain would have an innings limit. Though the panic move that ultimately sent Phil Hughes to the bullpen eliminated one option, others should have remained had there been some more depth at AAA. No one expected Ian Kennedy to have an anuerysm, for example.
  

• Even so, in the past week, the Yankees have learned, 1) Chien Ming Wang is gone for the year, 2) Alfredo Aceves--the emergency starter candidate du jour--had a tired shoulder, and certainly doesn't look recovered, 3) Sergio Mitre works as a fifth starter against last place teams and little else, 4) the depth at AAA was so bad that the team had to trade for Jason Hirsch, who was pitching to a 6.00+ ERA at that level for Colorado.

• The Yankees' only real other need was another back-up outfielder, but in this case there were in-house options available. The Yankees didn't need another power-hitting corner fielder, they just needed someone that could play halfway decent defense in center and run the bases, at least until Brett Gardner returns. Another reliever would have been nice, too, but not nearly as necessary as another starter.

• The two biggest pitchers rumored to be available at the deadline, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, were mostly discussed by fans (and writers) in the context of "don't-let-Boston-get-them". I, of course, don't know about the Yankees' plans, but it seems that JP Ricciardi overplayed his hand with Halladay and the Yankees never seemed to seriously consider Cliff Lee--at the very least, he didn't seem to be much discussed.

• There wasn't much of a "second-tier" of available pitchers. Jarrod Washburn and Ian Snell were probably the only ones that fit into this catergory, and even Snell here is a stretch. Still, Snell, along with his compatriot Jack Wilson were sent to Seattle earlier this week. That left many Yankee fans clamouring for Washburn, and though it was later revealed that it would have cost Austin Jackson, Washburn did end up in Detroit for the price of Luke French.

• Of more interest is this: it was rumored, partly by Joel Sherman, that the Yankees turned down a potential deal for Brian Bannister of Kansas City because they couldn't get Kansas City to continue to pay the remainder of Bannister's $650k salary--which would be closer to $910k when accounting luxury revenue. These are Bannister's stats, if you're interested. They're nothing spectacular--he's doing it in the weak AL Central--but they'd probably translate better than what Sergio Mitre has been doing.

• In acquiring Eric Hinske, the Yankees got Pittsburgh to pay the rest of his salary. It seemed insignificant enough at the time, right now...not so much.
  

• Now consider the following posts from Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog.com and from Mike Silva's NYBD:
  

1. "…Mets fans will find particularly interesting:

   …in talking to people around the game today, there is a lot of chatter about how the Yankees are being pressured from investors to cut spending and start delivering a dividend for once… in other words, the Yankees are unable to spend like they used to, and the gravy train may be coming to end, not surprising in this economy… in other words, nothing can last forever, and there is no such thing as an unlimited budget… "(found here)

2. "Our main source down in Tampa just called to tell me that it appears that, sadly, the Yanks are sitting this one out. There appears to be less than a 10% chance that Cashman will make a move of any kind, let alone a major deal. Financial constraints, and not wanting to move any of the prospects, are the two main reasons." (found here)

• Now consider a comment made by Joe Girardi during tonight's postgame report after a 10-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox: “I’m not sure that we have a lot of options at this point, [Mitre] has got to get it done for us.” That's a little concerning. It's one thing not to have a lot of options and quite another to admit that it's the case, especially on a day such as the trade deadline, when every team wants to come off for their fans and for the public as though it is they who are the big winners. To admit that the Yankees don't have a lot of options on a day like today is, could be in a sense, insinuating that Cashman hasn't done his job. I don't see it as that--I see it more as a comment to the effect that Cashman's hands may have been tied--maybe, for whatever reason, he couldn't do much.

• Mets, Cardinals and Cubs fans and bloggers I have talked to have all told me they've heard or read whispers about the Yankees having financial constraints this year. From Yankee fans, I hear mostly that it's hogwash to think so, because, hey, they're the Yankees. Here, however, it's probably important to remember that as Yankee fans we are inherently biased. We don't want to believe that the Yankees can be mortal just as any other organization.

What I'm left with is the notion that taking on the Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira contracts, in edition to those of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and, yes, Kei Igawa, has left the Yankees financially inflexible.

It's true that the Yankees have drawn remarkably well in a bad economy and in one of the coldest and wettest summers in recent memory, but I feel this may only be a mask.

The bigger piece here to consider is the YES network--by far the most successful of any of the regional sports networks. If the Yankees are drawing the revenue from the network that everyone thinks they are drawing, then it should be more of a question of the Yankees choosing not to spend more as opposed to being unable to do so.

Still, the added payroll is no small thing. Just because the Yankees could go out and spend another $30 million doesn't mean that they should. I point to Matthew Cerrone's quote above, where he states that investors are looking for a return on the investment. Investors is a vague term, but it's hard to believe that those responsible for supporting the YES network, such as sponsors or Goldman Sachs, aren't included here.

One must remember that the Yankees don't just have to deal with these massive contracts this year; Posada and Sabathia will take them to 2011; Burnett to 2013; Teixeira to 2015 and Alex Rodriguez to 2017.

There's no doubt that the Yankees right now are helped in that guys such as Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and others are still cost controlled, but the honest truth is that no other team even comes close to what the Yankees have spent.

I don't know if there was more to the Yankees not getting Brian Bannister--such as Kansas City asking for Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero--but if one considers that the Royals traded for Yuniesky Betancourt, it seems odd, indeed.

It's one thing if a Halladay-like $15 million salary is a sticking point--most teams cannot afford that--though the Yankees are theoretically one of the few that can.

It is an entirely different thing when a $650k salary, or when the Pittsburgh Pirates are asked to continue to pay the salary for your utility bench guy with a l'il pop. That is Tampa Bay Rays-ish territory.

Maybe the Yankees have some grand plan for the 2009-2010 offseason, in which they acquire Jason Bay trade with the Nationals for Stephen Strasburg (assuming he ever signs), but the word on the street is that the 2010 free agent class is notable for being thin. Maybe the Yankees hope to pick someone up off of the waiver deadline, but other teams can block waiver deals. That seems a risk, indeed, when Ian Snell, Jarrod Washburn, Brian Bannister et. al. were available this time.


Of course, I don't have access to the Yankees' financial records. This post here is nothing more than speculation at 2.30 AM while the notions are fresh in my mind.

Still, I would urge you to keep your eyes and ears opened.

That the Yankees would have any sort of budget should surprise no one but what may be surprising, however, is to see how tightly the Yankees have stretched it.; history is rife with kings and queens that plunge their country into bankruptcy because they overspend from theoretically limitless coffers. Such are among the causes of the French and Russian revolutions.

It would seem a much less daunting task for financial insolubility to cause trouble for even the exalted Yankees.

Now that 4.01 PM has come and gone...

The Yankees were relatively quiet on the trade front today, acquiring utility infielder for minor-league catcher Chase Weems.

They did not acquire a pitcher, though it is important to remember that waiver deals may be made until the end of August.

There's lot to digest here, but it comes down to the following:

the Yankees upgraded their bench at relatively little cost, which means Cody Ransom's days are numbered, and while the Red Sox acquired Victor Martinez, it has nowhere near the impact it would have had the Sox gotten Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay.

That the Yankees didn't get a pitcher like Brian Bannister is intriguing only because it was supposedly the relatively miniscule amount of cash that kept the deal from getting done. Still, it's important to consider that as fans we do not have all of the information, and there may have been other factors at work.

Only time will tell if the Yankees were winners by standing pat.

Last season we thought Nady, Marte and Pudge would have the Yankees all in, and then not only did the 2008 team miss the playoffs, but none of those three are helping the Yankees this year.

Baseball's a funny game.

Yankees don't need to move heavens at the deadline

With the trade deadline approaching, all baseball conversation seems to hover around whether one's team is a buyer or a seller, and, if so, who should be targeted or what should be brought back.

Last year, an eight-game winning streak right after the All Star Break pushed them firmly into buyer territory, but though the trade for Xavier Nady and Dámaso Marte was hailed as a steal at the time, Marte was soon injured and Nady soon ice-cold. Another move, trading Kyle Farnsworth for Ivan Rodriguez, seemed to ruin the flow of the bullpen, and was pretty much a disaster on the catching front, too.

This season, the Yankees have been buyers all the way. They've spent much of the season with the third best record in all of baseball--now second only to the Dodgers (and only 3.5 games behind them, as well), and the best in the American League.

That said, there are some holes the Yankees probably want to consider addressing--the most important and apparent of which would be the acquisition of another starting pitcher.

Once through the rotation after the All Star break and every starter was great, but it would not be fair to ask of Sergio Mitre to pitch against Boston like he did against Baltimore--he is, after all, the emergency fifth starter, not a highly-touted prospect or a high-profile free agent signing.

Right now, many eyes are on Roy Halladay, but the Yankees shouldn't need to do anything that drastic. The team doesn't need an entire makeover; it needs only minor improvements to go from one of the best teams in the American League to, perhaps, the best.

It's kind of interesting that an offense that's gotten by all season without Xavier Nady and for a while without Jorge Posada, and even for a month without Alex Rodriguez is still leading all of baseball in runs scored.

Could the Yankees use another bat off the bench so we don't have to worry about Cody Ransom's defense? Possibly.

Still, when push comes to shove, I'd wager it's far more likely that the Yankees would call up Ramiro Peña from AAA Scranton as opposed to going out and trading for another bat.

Now take a second to think about it.

That the Yankees have the option to call up a guy like Peña, and that no one would blink twice if they did, is a testament to the rebuilt farm system. Sure, Ramiro Peña is no Jesús Montero, but guys like Peña, who can field a range of positions, steal bases and otherwise annoy teams are just as important. The playoffs aren't won and lost as individuals; they are won and lost as a team.


I doubt that Eric Hinske will be the only in-season move that the Yankees make, but don't expect them to go the way of the Red Sox and be overactive at the deadline.

For the first time in a very, very long time, the Yankees have that luxury.

At the Deadline, 2009 Looks Like 2008....Sorta...

With the All Star Break fast approaching, teams are beginning to have to make that most-crucial of decisions: buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

With the Yankees, there isn't much of a question--with the third best record in MLB and first place in the Wild Card race (though no one's looking at this quite yet), it's clear that the Yankees are buyers.

So now the question becomes threefold:

1) What do the Yankees need?

2) Can they solve this problem from within?

3) What price are they willing to pay to solve the problem from the outside?


Strangely, although in many ways this season has felt much different than 2008, the needs in 2009 are strikingly similar at the same point in the season.

This might be attributed to the fact that Xavier Nady and Dámaso Marte have been non-entities this season (although credit should be given to Nady for trying to come back ahead of schedule and avoid a second TJ surgery, though that no longer looks possible).

Thus, the Yankees need, right now, the same sort of thing that they needed last year: an additional bat that can spell some of the outfielders if need be, due to age or slump, and a reliever.

The good news is that the Yankees do not necessarily need a left-handed reliever (although they wouldn't say no, I don't think, if the right one is available); but I'm thinking that the idea here is to have another decent (ie, not Veras/Ramirez/Albaladejo) reliever so that the Yankees have the option of bringing Hughes back to the rotation and not substantially weakening the bullpen.

Or, you know, giving the Yankees the option to not have to pitch Brett Tomko, or Proctor Phil Coke or Alfredo Aceves.


The bat is simple here: you want someone better than Cody Ransom available to come off of the bench if need be. As Ramiro Peña can field well, run well and is not an automatic out, I can't see the Yankees sending him down to AAA, even if that would ultimately benefit him the most, unless they can land a bat that can do these things, also. The cost for that, however, would likely be prohibitively high, and while I can't see the Yankees mortgaging the farm for anyone, they would like something better than what they have.




Could the Yankees solve this issue from within?

For a while it looked like the Yankees would be able to solve the relief pitcher issue from within, with Mark Melancon, but after a short stint in the majors where nerves seem to have gotten to him, he's struggled again in AAA. Some other relievers have performed well, but nothing that is that inspiring--except, perhaps, for the ambidextrous Pat Venditte, and he is only just promoted to High A. Certainly not Major League ready.

As for the suggestion that Austin Jackson should be promoted to the Major League level, the answer is a resolute: No. He is progressing nicely at AAA. He is not blasting through the system a la Chamberlain, but everything seems to be coming in time. He is performing well for his level of competition, but he is not, in no way, shape or form, overmatching it. The worst thing the Yankees could do right now is mess with his development.

John Rodriguez is another name that's been thrown around, but he's recently been placed on the DL with a hamstring injury, and as fun as Shelley Duncan is to root for, he's not really as versatile defensively as the Yankees would probably like--not to mention he strikes out way too often.



It's still pretty early, in terms of the trade deadline, and we're not entirely sure which players are available for the right price.

For the Yankees the price is always going to be high--since every other team out there knows the Yankees can pay it.

Let the speculation begin.

Grading the Trade Deadline

One day removed from the most interesting regular-season day of the year, one can begin to analyze the moves the Yankees have made as buyers at the Trade Deadline.

To recap:

Bought
Dàmaso Marte, LHP, Pirates
Xavier Nady, OF, Pirates
Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, C, Tigers
Jhonny Nuñez, RHP, Nationals
Matt Cusick, 2B, Astros

Sold
Ross Ohlendorf, RHP
Jose Tàbata, OF
Jeff Karstens, P
Dan McCutchen, P
Kyle Farnsworth, RHP
Alberto Gonzalez, INF
LaTroy Hawkens, RHP


By the above lists alone, once can see that in the trades the Yankees did make, they came away very well, getting an outfielder having a career year, the best left-handed reliever on the market and a hall of fame bound catcher, for what looks like little cost (unless Jose Tàbata's power magically develops ad he becomes the next Vladimir Guerrerro).

The Yankees filled some of their most glaring needs--a right handed bat, a lefty reliever and a catcher to help take the strain off of Jose Molina--but there is one area that they were not successful: they did not get a starting pitcher.

While one can argue that the Yankee rotation as is can suffice, just remember that tonight Sidney Ponson is pitching against the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim of the USA of the Milky Way of the Universe...)

Now, just because the Yankees didn't get a strting pitcher at the deadline doesn't mean they're out of option--there's still the waiver deadline later this month, not to mention certain available free agents and Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, et al, in the minors...

The Yankees were much more active this year at the trade deadline than they were last year, and on the surface it looks as though they pulled off a coup, but all of their needs have not been solved yet.

It's up to the Yankees now to make something happen with the pieces they've gotten.

An Act of Piracy?

Was it pure piracy?

We won't know for sure for a couple of years, when Jose Tàbata should be major league ready, but for now, it sure looks it.

Who the Yankees got:

Xavier Nady: Corner outfielder with pop in his bat.
Dàmaso Marte: Left-handed relief pitcher who was more or less the most sought-after relief pitcher this season.

Who the Yankees gave up:

Ross Ohlendorf: You've seen him before. Hard throwing pitcher who could turn into a starter or a reliever.
Jose Tàbata: Last year, he hit .305 with a broken bone in his wrist. This year, the youngest player at the AA level, he has had some red flags go up with his attittude when dealing with a tougher level of competition.
Phil Coke: AA pitcher who has looked stronger recently, but is already 26 years old.
George Kontos: Potential servicable #5 starter.


EDIT:

Coke and Kontos have been replaced in the deal with Jeff Karstens and Dan McCutcheon.

Jeff Karstens: Marginal starter.
Dan McCutcheon: Could turn into a very reliable bullpen arm.


So, what does this do for the Yankees?

Well, going into the trade deadline, the Yankees had three needs, viz:

1) A right handed bat, preferably one that could play the outfield corners--left field this year, while Damon's shoulder is still not 100%, and potentially right field next year, if the Yankees decline to bring back Bobby Abreu.

2) A starting pitcher to spell Darrell Rasner or Sidney Ponson.

3) A left-handed reliever.

They have now, pending physicals, filled numbers one and three on their list, and done so without giving up anyone on their twenty-five man roster, without giving up Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero or Mark Melancon, and done so while the combined cost of Nady and Marte is under $11 million.


It's hard to know exactly how everything will play out, but right now, the Yankees could be heading into the latter part of the year with a starting line up of:

Johnny Damon DH
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Robinson Canò 2B
Xavier Nady LF
Melky Cabrera CF
Jose Molina C

Sound a bit longer than the line up currently in place? Thought so.

Now think about what the bullpen might look like:

Mariano Rivera
Kyle Farnsworth
Jose Veras
Edwar Ramirez
David Robertson
Dàmaso Marte
Dan Giese (okay, so Hawkins will probably still be here, but that's not the point).

That is a formiddable bullpen.

For all of the talk of this being a rebuilding year, Brian Cashman and company have made a move that will do that much more to help this team well now.