Concerned about CC?

Take a look at this list here.

The list ranks pitchers by "abuse points", with the pitchers that are most abused--that is, the most overworked--at the top.

Is it much of a surprise to see CC Sabathia at the top?

When the Yankees signed Sabathia, one of the selling points was that he was a workhorse. His effort with Milwaukee at the end of last season--pitching on multiple occasions on three days' rest--was Herculean.

The problem is, however, that the selling point of Sabathia being a workhorse was also a concern point.

It's perhaps, in some odd and cruel sense, kind of funny that we, as fans, bloggers, analysts, and what have you, put so much stock into the Verducci effect--the idea that too great an increase in innings for a young pitcher is an injury risk--and yet, at the same time seem to decide after a pitcher hits a certain age that being overworked is no longer a concern.

There's no denying that Sabathia has pitched a lot in 2007 and 2008, and that in both of those postseasons he struggled. Of course, we don't know the reason for struggling in those postseasons, but it'd be foolish to ignore the amount that Sabathia pitched during the season.

Could it be, now, that Sabathia is feeling the effects, in-season, of the past two years?


I'm leaving this question open. I'm no pitching expert, and Sabathia's inconsistency could be due to something completley different. I'm just suggesting this as a possibility.


At any rate, whatever's going on, the Yankees should hope they can figure something out--barring injury or rain outs, Sabathia's next two starts would involve facing Buerhle at Chicago and then Boston.


Alfredo Aceves Update: Via Pete Abraham, Alfredo Aceves has admitted to having a sore shoulder, though he doesn't think it's serious. Still, the track record for the Yankees and admitting the severity of injuries isn't exactly stellar.

Yankees Throw a Clunker (Postgame Notes 28 July 2009)

For only the second time since the All Star Break, the Yankees lost a game, and this one was a clunker in every sense of the word.

CC Sabathia wasn't sharp, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez air-mailed throws to first base, the bats were largely flat or else erasing rallies with double plays and poor baserunning, questionable calls, and as a whole the team reminded much too much of 2008.

Given the Yankees' recent play, however, this game seems much more like an aberration than anything else, though there is a legitimate concern to be had in Sabathia's ineffectiveness.

It's not that Sabathia was ineffective tonight, but that he has been inconsistent of late, and there is growing speculation that Sabathia's running into a tired arm because of the overwork in the last couple of years.

If the Yankees were in first by a comfortable margin, I wouldn't be shocked to see them contemplating giving Sabathia a start off now and then, but with the race as close as it is, the Yankees do need Sabathia to at the very least give them a chance to win.

There's not much to say otherwise. Offenses go through rough patches, but given the eleven runs scored yesterday with the same line up, I don't think anyone is (while in their right mind) panicking. One just hopes the Yankees brush it off and put together a better effort tomorrow.

If there is a bright spot, Mark Melancon pitched in his first stint since July 10th and did not allow a run.


Chien Ming Wang News Chien Ming Wang met with Dr. James Andrews. The verdict is surgery--same as Posada had last season, and he is out for the year. (Via Mark Carig, Star Ledger)

We already suspected Wang was done for the year, but having shoulder surgery for a pitcher may very well be the kiss of death. I feel for Wang. It's tempting to assign blame, but in this case I don't think you can.


Live Chat:

I will attempt a live chat on Thursday, 6-7 PM, come on by and ask whatever's on your mind.

A deceptively simple cause for Joba's problems

Tonight, I appeared as a guest on Steve Keane's Pro Baseball Central show on BlogTalkRadio.

Through much arguing and bickering about the importance of the eighth inning and what will happen when Mariano Rivera's contract expires, there was a point raised that I found worthy of further investigation:

Among the many reasons cited for Joba Chamberlains's inconsistency and lack of stamina, I have not yet seen someone tackle the issue of whether or not Chamberlain's lack of innings pitched--both in college and in the minor leagues--and the affect that might have on him now.

If you look here, you can see Chamberlain's innings totals for both his time in Nebraska and his time with the Yankees.

What do you notice?

Chamberlain did not even pitch 100 innings in the minor leagues; at Nebraska he did not reach 120 innings.

This season, he's already logged 89 innings--and if we keep the Verducci Effect (the idea that excess increases in innings pitched from year to year substantially increases injury risk) in mind, he probably won't top 130 IP--perhaps 140 if the Yankees are feeling like living on the edge with a pitcher who sustained a can't-be-overlooked shoulder injury last season.

How does this compare with others?

Roy Halladay, since he's topical, pitched about 640 innings in the minor leagues; with about 150 or so (if my random mental math is accurate) after his first call up to the major leagues.


Dan Haren pitched 472 innings in the minors; about 128 of them coming after his first call-up to the majors.

Justin Verlander pitched only 118 innings in the minors (over one season), but preceded that with three straight 100+ innings pitched seasons in college ball--Chamberlain only had two years at Nebraska and only pitched more than 100 innings in his first season.

Johan Santana pitched 340 innings in the minors; some after his first call up but the majority before.


Notice a pattern here?


It would seem, then, that there is perhaps a case to be made for "Joba hasn't pitched enough" as a reason for his depleted stamina--which in turn means lower velocity, more hittable pitches and shortened outings.

Now, there are some things to consider:

1) Chamberlain was injured in college--which is part of the reason he fell to the Yankees as low as he did in the draft.

2) He was rushed through the minors because he had been pitching so well--and also because the 2007 Yankees needed pitching help like, uh, (pick your own grossly inappropriate comparison)

3) Going from 89 innings pitched in 2006 at Nebraska to 112 innings pitched in 2007 for the Yankees at multiple levels was a 23 inning increase--perhaps not the Verduccian 30, but for a guy coming off an injury, probably close enough. I'm not sure how many innings pitched he was on pace for before he got hurt in 2008, but it's probably safe to assume that again the Yankees would have been toying with the Verducci line.

Now, already at 89 innings pitched, it doesn't seem likely that Chamberlain will be able to pitch himself out of August without really risking damage, which, of course, would create a whole other set of problems--but you knew this already.



At the time, back in 2007, I don't remember there being too much debate about Chamberlain being rushed--the team's needs were that desperate at the time. In the off-season, Chamberlain was hailed as untouchable by the fans when discussing Santana rumors, but no one--or nearly no one--suggested Chamberlain be sent back down to the minors to build up arm strength, even though the conversion from reliever to starter would surely require that.

It is--perhaps in some sick sense--almost amusing that an issue we as fans (and even writers) have seen as so complicated and so mysterious might actually be really simple: he hasn't pitched enough.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure how you'd address that situation. We're already at a point in the season in which even if you did send Chamberlain back to the minors to work on his pitches, he's pitched so many innings that it's hard to see exactly how beneficial it might be.

It's certainly, however, a warning sign--if the Yankees did trade Chamberlain for Halladay and Toronto did have Chamberlain pitch substantial innings in the minors to build up arm strength and stamina (given Toronto's history in developing--or, as it were, not-- pitchers, they'd probably take this to the other extreme), Chamberlain could yet end up being the effective starter the Yankees hoped for in the first place.

What it seems we're seeing now, then, is all the development and growing pains that should be happening at the minor league level--only it's not at the minor leagues; it's at the majors, where the hitters (excluding those on the Royals, Padres and Mets) don't let mistakes go unpunished.

Figure Something Out

A month ago, everything was going so well. The Yankees weren't losing, and if they did, they rallied after that with another two or three wins in a row. They played eighteen straight games in a row and in a period of twenty or so games, the starting pitching had only lost two or three of those games.

Then the team ran into a Boston Red Sox team that it still can't beat, and everything fell apart.

The team isn't playing good defense, and, more importantly, it's not hitting. Not even a little. Certainly, not when it matters, or the players that the Yankees need to produce.

Instead, as we saw last year, double plays and first-pitch swinging is again rampant, as I sit here and watch the Yankees lose their third game in a row.

What is going on?

Out of nowhere, it seems, the entire team has gone into a slump.

I know teams slump, players slump, etc., but this is beyond ridiculous. Earlier in the season, when the Yankees lost it wasn't so bad because the team fought, game after game after game. Where has that fight gone? It certainly hasn't come to south Florida or Atlanta.

I know Tommy Hanson is supposed to be the next big thing for the Braves--and therein is the Yanks' critical problem: An inability to hit (good) young pitchers whom they've never seen.

I don't know why that is, but I do know that any team that aspires to the World Series can't shrug their shoulders and give up when a young pitcher takes the mound. Is it an issue with scouting? With the Yankees' batters? With someone else?

It's become such a big deal now because it's only gotten more pronounced over time.

These guys can't face Livan Hernandez every night.

They have to figure something out.