Anything is Possible

(photo credit: Nick Laham/Getty Images)


I had forgotten what it felt like.

Not the winning, but the euphoria.

This feeling, that nothing can touch us, that nothing can stop us, that for this moment, the baseball gods have smiled.

The Yankees, though, the Yankees were there to make sure I remembered.

***

No one said that beating the Angels would be easy, and it wasn't.

Six games, six games in which every emotion as a fan was tested: there was anxiety, nervousness, pleasure, pain, face-palming and, at long last, euphoria.

To be the champions of your league, you have to beat the best along the way.

The Angels were the only team in the league that played the Yankees well consistently all season, and so it was fitting that the road to the World Series would have to go through Anaheim.

When it came down to it, it wasn't just that the Yankees had ALCS MVP CC Sabathia and the Angels didn't, or that the Yankees had Alex Rodriguez and the Angels didn't, it was that the Yankees never forgot how to play fundamental baseball.

Fundamental errors cost the Angels games two and six; even just costing them one of those games would have been too much.

****

It is only fitting that Andy Pettitte was on the mound tonight.

He was there in 1996, he should be there again this season, when comparisons to the late nineties Yankees have been so apparent.

It was fitting, and Pettitte was vintage.

He only pitched into the seventh inning, but he kept the Angels to just one run, and you get the feeling that once the Yankees scored, the Angels never really had much of a chance.

There was Pettitte, and then there was Joba, where we held our breath, and then there was Rivera.


****

I've gone back and forth on Rivera in the eighth, but ultimately it was the right decision. As a proponent of the leverage argument, tonight's use of Rivera is exactly what should have been done, with him facing Figgins, Abreu, Hunter, Guerrerro and Morales in the the eighth inning, in a two run game.

You knew Rivera would be on the mound for the final out, regardless of the score.

It just wouldn't be right without it.

****

The work isn't done.

Philadelphia's not just a good team, they're the defending World Champions and with good reason.

Yet, you get the feeling, if anyone can beat the Phillies, these Yankees can.

We have watched this team, all season, dazzle us, surprise us, enthrall us and, most of all, make us believe.

And so we do believe.

The quest for 27 remains, and it closer than ever.

This team is showing us that they are of the Substance, that they are Yankees.

The euphoria is back.

Anything is possible.

A Taste of Their Own as Angels Walk Off on Yanks

Generalizations never achieve much, but in this occasion, one generalization can explain a lot.

The Yankees lost game three of the 2009 ALCS because Joe Girardi managed a road game as if he were still home.

You can call it over-managing if you'd like--and indeed, it probably was--but managing the game the way Girardi does at home is not nearly as much of an issue as it is on the road, especially in extra innings.

1) At home, one run by your team in extras and the game is over. You don't have to worry about scoring, and then pitching again in the bottom of the inning as you do on the road.

2) On the road, one run from the other team and the game is over. Your offense doesn't get another shot.


So here's the breakdown.

1) The Yankees' biggest issue in this game--and, it's looking like their biggest issue this series--is a lack of hitting with runners on base. Every Yankee run today was via a solo home run, and while the Yankees have had decent enough pitching to win when they score four runs much of the time, much is not all. The Yankees had golden opportunities to add to their lead, and they did not. Andy Pettitte made one bad pitch, and well, boom. A 3-1 cushion is not a big cushion, at all.

2) I don't have an issue with leaving Pettitte in to face Guerrerro although I admit that, since I did not have a computer handy, I don't know what his pitch count was at the time. My issue is with the pitch Pettitte threw: there was no reason, in that situation, to give Guerrerro anything to hit. Guerrerro swings at, well, everything. Sabathia and Burnett can blow it by the former Expo; Pettitte cannot.

3) Chamberlain looked awful. Girardi was quick with his hook, but, alas, not quick enough. Someone--and I can't remember where I read this, so apologies to whomever I should be citing--said that this postseason, Joba's fastball has been there but his slider has not, which may explain why he's been hooked quickly.

The great thing about going to games with well-informed fans is that you get excellent analysis as well, and I thus agree with the commenter known as TSJC: Joba tends to overthrow, as though he is too amped and trying to do too much. It's been an issue with him as long as he's been with the Yankees.

4) I did not agree with Girardi's decision to leave Hughes in to start a third inning. Hughes hasn't pitched more than two since what, June? May? And against the heart of the Angels' order, as well, it just didn't make sense to me. Girardi thus made the right call to bring in Rivera, and, well, Mo is simply not mortal.

First and third, no one out, and Rivera got out of the jam. At the time, the Stadium exploded and we thought it was perhaps destiny that we'd win.

5) The biggest issue I had with Girardi's overmanaging was bringing in Aceves to face Kendrick. Robertson had already had two outs, had little history vs Kendrick (if any at all) and is a strike out pitcher. Aceves, on the other hand, has a propensity for giving up fly balls, and as we all saw, the ball certainly carried today. At home, if the other team hits a home run, you still get a chance to get the run back the next day, but on the road, you do not.

As it were, Kendrick singled and Mathis drove him in with a long fly off the wall, but it is my belief that Robertson could have gotten the third out.

6) TSJC had an issue with Girardi replacing Damon with Hairston, not that he did it but when he did it. With the bases loaded and less than two outs, anything hit to left field is likely going to score the winning run, anyway. It makes little sense.

7) If Gardner is inserted into the game to pinch run, he has to run. He has to go on the first pitch--where there's pretty much no chance of a pitch out. Gardner's not in there to hit home runs, and the only reason to remove Matsui's bat is because you are going for the win right then, and need the RISP. If Gardner steals successfully, Posada's home run is a game winning, and not game tying (fallacy of the predetermined and all).

8) GOOD: Jeter's third pitch home run, holy crap what is A-Rod smoking and where can I get some, that Melky-Jeter-Teixeira play in the 8th to nab Abreu (where the heck was Canó on that? We were trying to figure it out!) Mariano is not mortal, and Teixeira is (again) worth it for his defense alone.


Okay. I think I touched on most of the important things. You can argue whether or not Sabathia should have pinch hit for Rivera instead of Cervelli, but there is no way Rivera was going to go out and pitch a second inning.

If Andy Pettitte pitches to Guerrerro a little differently, the Yankees are probably looking at clinching the American League pennant tomorrow and Girardi's overmanaging is a non-issue.

Such as it is, the Yankees will send CC Sabathia out on three days' rest, and a stop-loss here would be crucial.

We said going in that this series would be a dogfight, and with two extra inning games already in the books, it has thus far lived up to its billing.

Yankees Sweep Twins, Move to ALCS

For the first time since October 2004, the Yankees won a postseason series.

Not only did they win the series, but they swept the way they were supposed to sweep, not like underachieving squads of not too long ago.

The game was similar to most of the Yankee-Twins games played this season: a close affair in which the Twins had a lead, lost it, and had one too many miscues to be able to recover.

Baserunning miscues may have coast the Twins two games this series, and the Yankees' ability to step on the Twins' neck, with two more runs in the ninth inning to turn a 2-1 nail-biter into a 4-1 game almost assured of being a sure thing with Mariano Rivera on the mound, Minnesota never had much of a chance.

No one will forget that the losing pitcher in this game was Carl Pavano, because it simply fits too well.

Pavano, in a sense, is THE symbol of the underachieving Yankee squads of recent note--$40 million to ride the disabled list, pitching just enough in 2008 to prove he can and get signed by another team in the offseason.

When motivated, Pavano is a decent pitcher--and he showed it tonight, matching Pettitte nearly pitch for pitch into the seventh inning.

Still, even the great Carl Pavano (note the biting sarcasm) could contain the Yankees forever. They were simply a better team than the Twins.

There are no MVPs awarded for the ALDS, but if there was such an award, there is no question that its recipient would be Alex Rodriguez.

How many of you thought you would be reading that sentence back in February?

Long the brunt of many a "but-he's-not-a-true-Yankee" criticism, Rodriguez was simply stellar throughout the series and tonight, again, played a hero, tying the game at one with a no-doubt home run into the stowed away football seats.



Andy Pettitte's pitching was also stellar--only one run through six and a third and only throwing 81 pitches in doing so.

There's a considerable question mark as to whether or not Pettitte should have been removed from the game at that point--and I would argue that Girardi simply remembers 1996 too well: going to a lock-down bullpen in the seventh inning to shorten the game, won championship #23.

It remains to be seen whether or not it will bring about #27, but for the moment Yankee fans can content themselves with the knowledge that no matter what, there will be at least four more games of Yankee baseball in 2009.


*****

Check back throughout the week for ALCS previews and analysis. Game one is Friday, 10/16.

So Who Starts Game Two?

The biggest question the Yankees have going into the postseason not named Joba Chamberlain is who will pitch game two?

The way the current rotation slots out, either AJ Burnett or Andy Pettitte could pitch game two of a postseason series.

The most cogent argument I've seen as to who the game 2 starter should be hinges on the fact that Burnett has clearly been a better pitcher at home and Pettitte better on the road. This argument also includes the notion that Pettitte, and not Burnett, has significant postseason experience, so in a must-win game on the road, Pettitte is probably the guy you want on the mound.

The argument to reverse the two is that Pettitte has been the better pitcher--more consistent--over the course of the entire season, but even so, I would rather Pettitte pitch where he has clearly performed better this year.

Take a look at these splits: Pettitte's home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that's over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.

Burnett's splits are similar to Pettitte's in terms of home-road difference, just reversed. It should, however, be noted that Burnett's road stats are likely inflated from his poor performances at Fenway Park (if the Yankees and Sox play each other in the LCS and it is possible to arrange it so, I can almost guarantee Burnett will be your game 2 starter...).

The Burnett should start game 2 argument has convinced me.

There are those that argue that Jose Molina should not have two postseason starts, but the likelihood of Molina starting just to soothe Burnett even though his bat is a serious liability--one that makes Francisco Cervelli look like a more reasonable choice--is extremely slim. I know Girardi has made some "buh" decisions, but he doesn't get to the best record in baseball by being bad at his job. Just sayin'.

Is it too early to start talking about the postseason rotation?

Ask someone what the Yankees' biggest concerns are at the moment, and he or she might be hard pressed to answer. After all, when your team has the best record in the league and a 6.5 game lead in the division race, it's hard to find areas to complain.

Still, there will be those who say that AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain are worrisome, and that certain relievers in the bullpen can utterly not be trusted.

So, the questions will inevitably arise, how will the Yankees construct their postseason rotation?

No, the Yankees have not made the postseason yet, but we are fast approaching a point where if the Yankees do not make the playoffs, even as a wild card team, it would be a collapse of historic proportions. Thus, it does not seem a stretch to address this issue.

Right now, the Yankees' rotation comprises of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre.

In the postseason, barring injury, you need four starters--so we can drop mighty mighty Mitre off the list for right now.

Thus, the question becomes, how do you organize the remaining four, and here the issue isn't so much the game one starter (Sabathia) or the game four starter (if needed) (Chamberlain). The issue is, as it was in 2007, who starts game two.

For most of this season, AJ Burnett has easily been the Yankees' #2 starter, but of late he has a couple of things working against him: he hasn't won in a month, and he's never pitched in a postseason game.

For me, at least, the second issue is more pressing than the first. Yes, Burnett hasn't won in a month, but he has been unlucky in some of those starts--like the fifteen inning game against Beckett, and the game he pitched in Oakland where he surrendered only three runs but the Yankees couldn't muster anything against Brett Tomko. His ERA for this time is over 6.00, but two absolutley horrid starts--in Chicago and Boston--are perhaps inflating it further. Of course, Burnett had a poor outing last night, so that doesn't do him any favors.

Still, the lack of postseason experience is a concern, especially if it follows Sabathia immediately--Sabathia's postseason number in 2007 and 2008 are not very good (though 2008 may perhaps be attributed to his pitching on three days' rest multiple times that September).

Pettitte as the number two starter would give the Yankees someone with a lot of postseason experience, and, since the All Star break, no pitcher has been better for the Yankees. Well, no starter, anyway (I'm looking at you, Mo Rivera). Last season, Pettitte pitched the second half hurt and put up some not very good numbers, but this season, well, on Monday Pettitte came within 7 outs of a perfect game.

A lot, however, can change between September 2nd and October 1st. In that time, Burnett could put it all together and Pettitte could fall apart, and in that case the decision would become even harder.

Still, if constructing your postseason rotation is your biggest concern, you're probably in a pretty good place.

****

On another note entirely, make sure you check out some great baseball travel posts from WFAN's Mike McCann. He's gone and visited numerous stadia at all levels--worth a gander if you like doing ballpark tours/trips.

Pettitte takes Perfecto into the 7th (Postgame Notes 31 August 2009)

Throughout his career, Andy Pettitte has been known as a second half pitcher.

That was never more apparent than it was tonight, where Pettitte pitched eight two-hit innings of baseball--he took a perfect game into two outs in the seventh and lost it only when Jerry Hairston Jr did his best Bill Buckner impression at third, filling in for Alex Rodriguez.

The Yankees scored their own five runs--it's a road game, so of course Swisher had a home run and was a triple away from the cycle--but the story of the game is easily Pettitte.

Pettitte was so good that even when he did lose the perfect game and the no-hitter (lost on a clean single), and the game was only 2-0 at the time, Pettitte still got himself out of the inning without allowing a run. Pettitte would allow a lead-off home run to Melvin Mora, but by that time the Yankees were leading by five.

Pettitte's ERA since the all-star break is 2.56--and despite CC Sabathia having lost only one August game in the past two seasons, one could make the argument right now that Pettitte is pitching better than anyone else on the Yankees' staff.

In the end, tonight's game is exactly what should have happened when the team with the league's best record plays one of the cellar-dwellers: Good pitching, enough offense and the other team never really has a chance.

(For what it's worth, though, Brian Bruney has quite a bit of work to do to if he really really wants to be on that postseason roster...)

Yanks do that pitching thing, win (Postgame Notes 26 August 2009)

For the first time since, uh, before last weekend, the Yankees received a quality start from their starting pitcher, and, accordingly, they won.


Andy Pettitte has historically been good in the second half; this year is no different.

After a some-what rough first inning that took a double play to escape scoreless, Pettitte cruised through seven innings.

The Yankee offense scored four runs off of long balls from Jorge Posada and Jerry Hairston Jr (yes, you read that right), and then five more in the bottom of the seventh inning doing damage against the Texas bullpen.

The one blemish to the night was Jorge Posada leaving the game in the top of the eighth inning after a pitch hit his (gloved) hand; via the beat guys on Twitter (Sweeny Murti and Josh Thompson covering for Pete Abraham), Posada re-aggravated a ring finger injury, but x-rays were negative and he is day-to-day--Posada was unlikely to catch tomorrow's game anyway, being a night game after a day game.


AJ Burnett goes tomorrow in the rubber game of this series, and after his last start at Fenway (yet another Fenway disaster in 2009), he could use a decent outing.

Super Smash Party (Postgame Notes 21 August 2009)

Everyone on the Yankees tonight except for Johnny Damon and Robinson Canó had multi-hit games tonight--and Johnny Damon left in the first inning after getting hit by a pitch.

If, uh, you can remember that far back.

Every one on the Yankees who started except for Johnny Damon had an RBI--and even Damon's replacement, Eric Hinske got in on the act.

Hideki Matsui had seven of them himself.

So forget the fact that Andy Pettitte, Brian Bruney and Sergio Mitre more or less crapped the bed pitching wise--tonight was a night for the offense.

The Yankees came to Boston with only the requirement that they did not get swept.

They didn't.

Life, for Yankee fans, is pretty good.

Yanks 30 over .500 (Postgame Notes 14 August 2009)

Doing this one in bullet form because it's late and I'm tired:

• The Yankees have a .902 OPS in the 7th inning or later. The next closest is .787.

• The Mets have 69 HR all year; the Yankees have 68 from the 7th inning on alone.

• Andy Pettitte's 10 strikeouts are a season high for him and match the season highs of CC and AJ. Oh, and he did it in six innings. Ken Griffey, Jr. was the only Mariner not to strike out. Which would be why he's Ken Griffey, Jr.

• Brian Bruney threw a greater percentage of strikes tonight than did Mariano Rivera, but Rivera still retired the side on nine pitches.

• Mark Teixeira is making quite the case for an MVP award, no?

Blog at you in the morning.

Boston Sweep Party

If there was any question, any doubt, any uncertainty about the character of the 2009 New York Yankees, this weekend it was answered.

Oh, was it answered.

All the talk, all the rumors that the Yankees could not beat decent teams, that they were a bully team that could only beat up on teams like the Mets and the Orioles, all the insinuations that Alex Rodriguez couldn't hit in the clutch, all of it has gone for naught.

The Yankees came into the weekend set with the Red Sox needing to win one--just one--to ensure they woke up on Monday morning still in first place, and to get the 0-fer off their backs.

So they won the first game.

It wasn't pretty, a 13-6 slugfest in which the Yankees walked twelve of the Red Sox, but it counts.

After winning the first game, the rhetoric turned to winning the second. Win the second game and ensure a split, ensure that no matter what there is no net loss in the standings. Win and get AJ Burnett's own Boston monkey off his back.

So they won the second game.

It was pretty--a thing of baseball beauty--until it went too long, well into the early morning hours. Eventually, Joe Girardi out-managed Terry Francona's bullpen strategy; while Girardi maximized the relievers he did use in extra innings, Francona opted for one-inning stints and eventually Junichi Tazawa made his Major League debut, and Alex Rodriguez was waiting.

After winning the second game, the rhetoric turned to winning the third. Win the third game and ensure a net gain in the standings. Win the third game and ensure a series victory in a series in which most would have been satisfied with a split.

So they won the third game.

It was pretty, too. The pitching was pretty--more, actually, like domination than pretty--and with a starter like CC Sabathia on the mound, domination seems a better term to describe it. The offense scored early enough and the team never looked back. It wasn't a 15-0 thrashing, but the way the Red Sox had been hitting, it might as well have been.

After winning the third game, then, the rhetoric turned to winning the fourth game.

To a sweep.

No one wanted to utter that word before--too much attached to it, it might too quickly act as a jinx--but now, three wins already down, the fans (and, one senses, the Yankees) smelled blood in the water.

The match up, on paper, favored Boston. Jon Lester, in his career, is (still) undefeated against the Yankees, although he has not always won.

Tonight, Lester wasn't much different. He made only one mistake--a solo home run to Alex Rodriguez--in seven innings of work. That the Red Sox were held scoreless, too, had less to do with Andy Pettitte (though it must be said that Pettitte got much stronger in his last two innings of work) than it did the Red Sox offense, which has simply disappeared.

Between the ninth inning of Thursday's game and the eighth inning of tonight's, the Red Sox did not score a single run. Thirty-one-and-a-third scoreless innings. Blame Boston's offense or laud Yankee pitching, it's your choice, but the fact remains that in four games against their rivals the Red Sox scored eight runs and four of those came before the fifth inning on Friday.

If there was one blemish tonight, it was Phil Coke giving up a two-run home run to Victor Martinez, but Girardi's reasoning for using Coke in that spot was sound: Phil Hughes was unavailable after pitching four games out of five, and if the game got to extra innings, the Yankees needed pitchers available who could give length.

During the postgame interview on YES, Coke explained that the pitch to Martinez was supposed to be up near his hands, and not down by his thighs. He was angry about it, and then was not angry anymore once the Yankees won. "So much for 8-0," he said.


Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira were there to bail Coke out, though, with back-to-back home runs in the next half inning. In fact, while with two outs, the Yankees would proceed to bat around in the inning.

So the Yankees won the fourth game.

They won the fourth game and swept the Boston Red Sox.

Had they swept this series against any other team it would be noted for the stellar pitching, clutch hitting, brilliant defense and everything else that went right. Since the series was against the Red Sox, though, it'll be remembered, rightly or wrongly, mostly for being a sweep of the Red Sox.

The Yankees are now 6.5 games in first place--the first time since 2006. It's still early, and there's still a long way to go, but there it is.

This is a team that is not just playing like it could, but playing like it will go on to do special things.

They can't get complacent now. They have to keep going. This has the feeling right now that the Yankees have just clinched the division. They have not, and with a month and a half to go it's not really that close, either.

Look for some of the regulars to get a day of rest while playing Seattle--after that it's back to the West Coast and then Boston again the weekend after.

For the moment, enjoy what you've seen.

And so much for Boston being 8-0, huh?

Andy is Dandy; outduels Halladay in Toronto (postgame notes 04 August 2009)

Among his many phrases, one of the most obvious--and yet ignored, except in a mocking tone--quotes of John Sterling is simply that "you can't predict baseball."


On paper, this should have been a rough game for the Yankees. They have, historically, struggled against Roy Halladay, and, of late had not been getting Andy Pettitte much in the way of run support.

Thankfully, the games aren't played on paper.

The Yankees never trailed, as they scored two runs in the first before Toronto had an at bat. Although the game did get close at times, the Yankees maintained their lead throughout, making the most important pitches at the most important spots.

Andy Pettitte, the starter, was brilliant.

In his career, Pettitte has solid enough numbers against Toronto, but tonight he needed to match Roy Halladay--and that he did.

He had some of his best stuff all season, and used it in a game where the Yankees sorely needed it.

The Yankee offense was excellent given the opposing starter; like the game on July 4th, the Yankees hit three long balls off of Halladay, this time Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui being the culprits.

The home runs, all solo shots, came late in the game and gave the Yankees insurance runs that they ended up needing, on a night when Mariano Rivera was not at his best.

I wouldn't get too concerned about Rivera; before pitching on Sunday he had not pitched in a while and thus, rust is rust. What matters is that he held onto the lead--if he's still getting hit like this come September, then there's an issue, but he's still 39 years old...

At any rate, the Yankees have won a game that didn't favor them on paper, and all of a sudden there's just a little less pressure on Sergio Mitre tomorrow.

Don't Blame This One on Andy

Andy Pettitte, since the All Star Break:

20 IP, 16 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 23 K, 3 BB (Yes, that's 23 strikeouts to three walks over twenty innings pitched).

In those starts, he's also received a grand total of three runs of support.


The Yankees have scored more runs than any other team in baseball, but apparently Pettitte did some sort of voodoo curse on the bats because they are very much not scoring for him.

It's a shame, because Pettitte has been stellar since the break, and even if he isn't exactly the Andy Pettitte of the late 1990s, he's certainly pitching well enough to be 3-0 in his last three starts, and not 0-0, with the Yankees having lost two of those games.

*****

It's tempting to blame the loss on Phil Coke, but Coke didn't put that runner on second, Hughes did. To be fair, Hughes was probably a bit gasses, and Girardi remains afraid to use Rivera in a tie game on a road.

At any rate, if you're going to blame anyone for this game, blame the offense that struck out seven times looking.

If the home plate umpire has a strike zone the size of a small state, you should probably at least swing at anything remotely close.



Some of you will consider this loss more grating than the game Sabathia recently lost; I disagree. Most nights if you get an effort from your starting pitcher like Pettitte gave, your team will win.

Jorge Posada Must Not Like Pie (Postgame Notes 25 July 2009)

No baseball team can win every single game it plays, and it's even harder when the line-up the manager posts can best be described as the "C" line-up--but don't blame the Yankees for trying.

In a game in which the Yankees did not get their first hit until the fifth inning (and a bunt single, at that), they still found a way to bring the winning run to the plate with nobody out in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Had Jorge Posada merely struck out, instead of grounding into the double play, the Yankees might still be playing in extra innings right now.

Since we can't alter the past, however, it's no use playing the what-if game. Here is what is:

Andy Pettitte was phenomenal in the first six innings, and whether we like it or not, earned himself the ability to try to get out of the seventh inning. Alas, he could not, and so Joe Girardi called on the next-most-prudent thing to do in bringing in Alfredo Aceves.

Aceves has been so good for the Yankees for so much of this season, that one might forgive a Yankee fan his or her shock when faced with Aceves', well, clunker this afternoon. Pettitte will be tagged for the loss, but Aceves' total inability to get that final out is really what cost the team the game.


Much will be made of the offense's inability to do anything against Oakland's starter Gio Gonzalez, but, as always, it all comes back to the pitching. Had the Yankees found some way to get out of that seventh inning, that 1-0 lead holds for just that much longer...


At day's end, however, the Yankees are still in first. One loss can change everything, but it shouldn't.

It's up to the Yankees to start a new streak tomorrow.

What's Another Walk Off? (Postgame Notes 20 July 2009)

Walk off hits for the Yankees this season:

Melky Cabrera (3)
Alex Rodriguez (1)
Jorge Posada (2)
Johnny Damon (1)
Luis Castillo (1)
Hideki Matsui (1)

Nine walk off wins this season and we're in the middle of July.

All of last season, the Yankees had nine walk-off wins.

There's something in the air this season. There's got to be. The Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games.

In the past four games the Yankees have scored only 11 runs--and this at the New Yankee Stadium in the middle of summer.

The Yankees are also 4-0 in that time, which includes a sweep of the first-place Tigers. Some decent pitching--starting and bullpen, indeed, and Sergio Mitre can worry about being Sergio Mitre and not any sort of stopper.


Sure the Yankees have issues, like that Chien Ming Wang felt pain in his shoulder while playing catch today and is now shut down until Friday, but walk off wins--not including ones won on pop-ups--have a way of making those worries disappear.

At least, that is, until the next game.


At any rate, the last time the Yankees were this many games above .500 was the last day of the 2007 season.

It's good to be there again.

Breaking Down the Yankees for the Second Half--The Rotation

So the All Star Game is officially over--and we can thus consider ourselves in the second half.

This is where it gets fun.

All of those days players got rested in the first half? Well, now they have to play. Now the pennant races start to heat up, and every move a team makes, be it a trade, a free agent signing or simply bringing someone up from AAA has even more added meaning.

What do we expect from the Yankees?

I'm going to do a series of posts addressing this, because there's so much to say that having it all in one post would a) kill your eyes and mine, and b) give me carpal tunnel at the age of 23.

So for now, I'm going to start with the starting rotation, because everything depends on the success and/or failure of these guys.

The Rotation

This is the biggest problem area for the Yankees, which is strange to say given how much was spent in the off-season to improve it.

The truth is, however, that outside of AJ Burnett's most recent string of domination, no one has emerged as an ace in the way that Mike Mussina did last year.

CC Sabathia and Burnett have been fairly reliable--although Sabathia's peripherals, the worst they've been since 2005 are a source of concern--but Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain have been inefficient at best and the fifth starter is, right now, non-existent.


CC Sabathia

Last time out, in Anaheim, Sabathia's ridiculously low road BABIP (batting average on balls in play) caught up to him. If you look here, you'll see that his strikeouts are down, walks are up and K/BB ratio is the worst it's been since 2005.

In the second half the Yankees, theoretically, should have enough starting pitching depth that Sabathia doesn't have to pull a stunt like he did with Milwaukee at the end of 2008, but he will have to be better. The peripheral stats are something that more and more seem to be noticing, and the Yankees will need to decide how much of it has to do with moving to the AL East and how much has some other, undiagnosed cause, and thus, how concerned they need to be.

Sabathia is the biggest pitching investment the Yankees have made since, well, Pavano and Igawa, so expect that the Yankees will do everything possible to make sure he is right.


AJ Burnett

Burnett got off to a very rocky start, and found no love from the fans after, well, you-know-what-ing the bed in two starts in Boston. He was in desperate need of a decent start against Johan Santana of the Mets, and it is entirely possible that his ultimate turning point in the season came when he had the bases loaded, none out, and got out of the inning without giving up a run.

Since then, AJ has really been the Yankee ace. He has faced the Mets, Marlins, Mets, Jays and Twins in that time span and has not given up more than 2 ER in any of those starts.

His last pre-break start, however, was not so much dominant as it was getting lucky and delivering the right pitch to escape jam after jam. In the words of, I think, the Associated Press, he had nothing, but still found a way to win.

If there's one thing the Yankees would probably ask a genie to do, if such genies existed, it would be to reduce Burnett's walk total--which leads the league.

Against teams with weak offenses, like the Mets, the walks don't hurt as much because no one ever makes you pay, but against stronger offenses, like Boston, the walks are killer. Burnett's always had control issues--he walked nine when he pitched a no-hitter for the Florida Marlins--but the Yankees aren't paying him $88 million over five years so that he can dazzle you with spectacularly wild pitches.


Andy Pettitte

Here's where things begin to get dicey. While Sabathia and Burnett have some issues, they are, for the most part, giving the Yankees enough length to keep the team in the game and not overexpose the bullpen.

Pettitte and Chamberlain? It's a little different.


Pettitte actually started the season strong, pitching into the sixth inning (and often beyond) in each of his first nine starts. That efficiency hasn't lasted, and his ERA has jumped from under 3.00 at the end of April to nearly 5.00 now.

The easiest way to explain it is that it looks as though Pettitte's body is having trouble keeping up with the grind of pitching every five days--as is what happens when most pitchers not named Moyer or Paige reach their later 30s.

Pettitte's first start after the break will be very telling--if the extra rest seems to have helped him, the Yankees could possibly consider skipping a start or two of his down the stretch to give him some extra breathing room (but somehow I doubt they will). If, however, he still continues to struggle in his next two or three starts, the Yankees will need to address whether or not it really is beneficial to the team to have him pitching in the rotation. If the Yankees, by some miracle, acquire someone like Halladay (see my previous post), or if Chien Ming Wang miraculously regains his form (also unlikely), then Pettitte's trending ineffectiveness is easier to bear.


Joba Chamberlain

Ah. Well. Here we go. The Wunderkind of 2007 and pre-injury 2008 has struggled in 2009.

Everyone's trying to figure out the root cause of the struggle, if it's psychological or physical or mechanical, and watching everyone go at it like a rat race would be incredibly amusing if the consequences weren't so large.

Each cause of his struggle has different results: if it's mechanical, this would be the easiest to fix--the Yankees could try to fix him up here or send him to AAA to sort it out, and if Joba's as good a pitcher as he's supposed to be, he'll be a quick study. If, however, it was as simple as this one would have seen improvement already.

The real answer is that the root cause is probably more complex, a combination of perhaps a nagging shoulder, an inexplicable fear of strike three, and maybe, since we're making this like a soup here, you can throw in some could-be-conditioned-better for extra spice. Like paprika.

Anyway, what the Yankees need, and need almost immediately, is to see if there's any indication that they can get Joba right, or at least that they can get Joba to pitch past the fifth inning. If they can, great. If they can't, the argument to turn him into a Canadian becomes all that stronger.

I think--and this is just opinion here--that the Yankees still see quite a bit of potential in Chamberlain. He is, after all, only 23, and he has shown that, when right, he can touch triple digits in the seventh inning.

The talent's there. The Yankees have to figure out how to access it.


The Fifth Starter

At this point, you just feel bad for Chien Ming Wang. He wasn't quite right in Spring Training, but it went ignored (because hey, it's Spring Training), and he imploded in the beginning of the year. He had a long and largely inefficient road back, but finally, finally looked something like the Chien Ming Wang of old while dueling Roy Halladay on July 4th--before he promptly strained his shoulder.

I don't believe in coincidences, so the fact that Wang got hurt while Halladay was starting for the Jays has to be considered some sort of divine sign, no?

Anyway.

There are those that would prefer to see Hughes or Aceves take the fifth spot, instead of Sergio Mitre and whomever the Yankees end up trading for (and they probably will), but there are problems with each.

Hughes, first of all, is not stretched out, and as I detailed in a recent post, the process of stretching him out, at this point in the season, might simply just take too long and create more problems for the Yankees and their bullpen than the ones it solves.

Aceves could be a perfectly competent starter, but when he's removed from the bullpen, the bullpen seems to fall apart. I'm not sure it's him, personally--although you have to consider the eerie similarity between his numbers and Mariano's of 1996 (his ERA has risen from 2.49 from 2.02 after his spot start, but if he stays in the bullpen it will likely come down again)--but I think there's a case to be made that his value lies in since he can pitch so many innings, the short relievers pitch less. The less the non-Mo short relievers pitch, the more they remain hidden, and the more they become a strength.

All we really know about this spot is that the next time it comes round it's probably Sergio Mitre's shot--but after that, who knows?

Obviously, the sooner the Yankees figure something out for the long term, the better, but don't be surprised if one good Mitre start spells another, and the Yankees try to recapture the ghost of Aaron Small circa late summer 2005.

It is way too tempting to blame this one on the umps...(Postgame Notes 6 July 2009)

...but you can't.

The umpires today made three hideous calls, but it was the Yankees' job to pitch and hit around them.

Yes, Derek Jeter was safe on the attempted steal of third base, but he should have never attempted the steal with none out in the first place.

Yes, Derek Jeter's jump play should have been an out, but Andy should have still thrown a better pitch to Alex Rios.

On and on.

Ultimately, the Yankees' pitching is the culprit here; Pettitte had another shaky outing at Yankee Stadium and the Yankees have to be very concerned about Brian Bruney.

Mark Teixeira's been slumping something awful (along with Robinson Canó any time a runner is on second base), but these have been masked because on the whole the Yankees are scoring enough to win games.

In fact, despite being down 7-1 at one point, they nearly won again today. Alas, they simply ran out of outs.

Still, the Yankees have won 10 of their last 12.

Yes, there are some issues, but trust me. Things could be a lot worse.

Pettitte Strong as Yanks Roll to 7th Straight (postgame notes 1 July 2009)

For, perhaps, the first time this season, Andy Pettitte had an excellent outing at home.

On a warm night (without rain, if you'd believe it and I don't blame you if you don't) that saw four home runs, Pettitte maintained his cool and pitched as though it was still 1999.

He did give up two runs, but at no point in the game did he ever trail the Mariners, and was no doubt helped by some falling asleep on behalf of the Mariners on the basepath.

As for the Yankee offense, just like last night, it did enough at the right moments to get the win. Four runs won't win you a game every night, but it will most nights if your starting pitching is competent, which, tonight, it was.

Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez all had home runs, with Melky's and A-Rod's shots being particularly, uh, blast-like.


And, really, that's all there is to say about tonight's game. Alfredo Aceves and Phil Coke combined for a scoreless 8th while Mariano Rivera picked up his 502nd save.

It was a crisp, clean game played in a very quick 2:17.

Once again, the Yankees have assured themselves of a series victory, and with the Jays coming in over the long weekend in which the Yankees get to face Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero (8 scoreless vs. the Rays today), that looms important.

CC Sabathia will be on the hill tomorrow as the Yankees go for the sweep.

Yanks Get Early Lead, Hold Ground versus Fish (Postgame Notes 19 June 2009)

By the end of the third inning, the game felt like a blow out, even though it was only a four-run lead.

Still, that is what early hits--nine in the first three innings--can do for a team, especially one coming off of a performance where, let's face it, they were simply going through the motions against the league's worst team.

Once Angel Berroa and Andy Pettitte had back-to-back doubles in the second (yes, you read that right), however, the game was firmly in the Yankees' hands, and the only question would remain how Pettitte pitched.

Pettitte allowed three hits (including a solo HR) over seven innings, struck out seven and walked no one. It was one of his best starts this season, and came at a time when the Yankees needed an effective start.

Brian Bruney pitched an excellent eighth inning, which the Yankees really, really need, and Brett Tomko had a nice rebound outing in the ninth.

The one real blemish here was that the Yankees left 11 men on base, though some of this has to do with being in an NL park and losing both the DH and A-Rod's bat (as A-Rod will be taking the first two games off since he's slumping something awful), but I think the key here is that when the Yankees had to get the runs, in the beginning of the game, they did. Had the Marlins played a better game on their end, I'm not sure the Yankees' bats appear to get so lacksidasical at the end.

Derek Jeter is still limping a bit--I guess tomorrow we'll see if there are any lingering effects.


****

I'm headed to Citifield tomorrow with my friend Robin, who is a Mets fan. I'll get to see Johan (probably not that) up close and personal. I will actually be rooting for the Mets--because they're playing the Rays.

It's Always About A-Rod (Yankees at Marlins, 19 June 2009)

6.12 PM: Well, the best way to summarize what's going on: Alex Rodriguez has been slumping something awful. Last night he asked to be taken out of the line up today, but was in the original line up. After a conversation that involved Brian Cashman, he's out of today's line up and tomorrow's as well.

Ayayay.

Anyway, the line up:

Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Posada
Canó
Swisher
Cabrera
Berroa
Pettitte (NL parks for nine straight days, oh joy!)

You should all check out this post from RAB about the offense's struggles in June.

7.15 PM: Lead off doubles are cool. Now, score.

7.20 PM: Teixeira and Posada hit back to back singles, Jeter scores and the Yanks have a run. Jeter's limp is a little concerning, though.

7.30 PM: Pettitte retires the side in order and Jeter seems to be all right in the field. Life is good.

7.35 PM: Maybe Girardi isn't as stupid as so many think. So who was complaining about Berroa in the line up again?

7.37 PM: I didn't remember that Pettitte could do stuff with a bat. But apparently, he can. 3-0 Yankees.

7.40 PM: Someone got to the Yankees after yesterday's game...4-0 Yankees in the second, all on 8 hits.

7.52 PM: Girardi and Donahue raced out as though there was something wrong with Andy. Pettitte waved them off, but his last couple pitches have been awkward.

7.55 PM: And then Pettitte gets the K anyway.

7.59 PM: To hit a HR here you have to absolutely crush it. Melky Cabrera did just that. 5-0 Yankees.

8.21 PM: Nothing doing that inning, but that happens when your pitcher leads off...

8.31 PM: This game has fallen into a rhythm and I'm only semi-conscious of what's going on. In that case, that's a good thing as the Yanks nurse a four run lead.

8.48 PM: Yanks get 2nd and 3rd, no out, and then the Marlins stick in a reliever who's got legit nasty stuff to face the bottom of the Yanks order. No, the Yanks didn't score there, but it's not as bad as it looks, considering.

9.46 PM: Wow, has it really been an hour? Yanks have left 11 on, but still lead 5-1. Now it's up to Bruney, and, if there's any trouble, Mo.

Bombers Bomb and get their Phil from the Bullpen (Postgame Notes 08 June 2009)

When Andy Pettitte's pitch count shot up past 70 in the fourth inning, there wasn't much question that the Yankees had the perfect opportunity to get Phil Hughes some much needed work from the bullpen.

Pettitte ended up staying in for six innings (and striking out seven along the way; the first six in the first three innings), but in the top of the seventh Phil Hughes came in, and Phil Hughes threw gas.

At the time the Yankees had a one run lead, and Hughes pitched out of the bullpen perhaps even better than his 2007 ALDS performance, though, granted, the stakes tonight were a bit lower.

No doubt, those who tune into WFAN tomorrow will likely hear a litany of "Hughes to the bullpen" phone calls, but the fallacies of that argument are for another day.


Still, Hughes was not to be outdone.

Phil Coke came out for the 8th, and other than one walk, also threw gas. A tremendous outing for him given his struggles on Saturday.

Mariano Rivera had another 1-2-3; he's probably unavailable to pitch tomorrow, but, it should be noted, the weather forecast for Boston tomorrow is something awful, so the game might not even be played.



The Yankees scored all their runs today via the home run: Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon and Darek Jeter, with Swisher's being a two-run shot. Teixeira's and Swisher's were out in any park, and even Damon's and Jeter's were out in most parks.

The only knock was that the Yankees could not sustain a rally, but I'm not sure they're worried about that right now--when they got their hits, they made them count.

Hideki Matsui, 0-his last-16 could probably use a day off.