How Reactivating Chien Ming Wang Messed With Phil Hughes

Recently, I've been seeing a lot of posts suggesting that to solve the rotation problems, the Yankees should move Phil Hughes back from the bullpen to the rotation.

On the surface, it's hard to disagree with this.

As a starter, Hughes this season was showing improvement outside of one disastrous Baltimore start. He was gradually becoming more efficient, less tentative and better at keeping a bad inning from imploding.

Things, in short, were going well.

Then the Yankees panicked in re-activating Chien Ming Wang from the DL, and things got hairy.

After a time it became clear that the Yankees couldn't keep Wang in the bullpen, or else risk losing all the arm strength that he had built up. Long story short, Hughes got sent to the bullpen.


And here the problem begins.


Hughes, out of the bullpen, has primarily been a one inning, and rarely a two inning pitcher. Since he's been so efficient out of the bullpen--he's had more than one nine pitch inning--at most, right now, I'd say he could throw about thirty pitches.

What does this mean?

If you were to tell Hughes tomorrow that he was starting again, he could probably pitch about two innings before tiring.

Now, some have suggested that the Yankees use the All Star break to stretch Hughes out, but here they are missing something: it takes longer than just a week to stretch a pitcher from a reliever to a starter.

There are two players to look at as models: Alfredo Aceves and Joba Chamberlain.

Aceves made a spot start last Thursday, which on the surface would seem to be a reliever-to-starter transition without a period of stretching. There are, however, two caveats: 1) Aceves was already a long reliever. Him pitching four innings the Sunday previous was not a terrible strain because he has already spent much of this season giving the Yankees two or three innings at a time, and 2) he only did pitch into the fourth inning--65 pitches on the nose--which ended up taxing the bullpen that day and bleeding into the next three.

The better example to look at is Joba Chamberlain.

Chamberlain had, in '07 and the first two months of'08, been an eighth-inning short reliever, but the Yankee plan was always for him to be a starter, so, towards, but not at, the end of May 2008, they announced plans to turn Chamberlain into a starter.

They had him first pitch longer stints out of the bullpen, and then, in the beginning of June, he made his first start--limited in pitch count, he did not get out of the third inning.

By the time Chien Ming Wang had gotten hurt, Chamberlain had stretched out not quite enough to pitch a complete game, but enough to pitch himself into the sixth-or-so inning, so that instead of the Yankees looking for another one starter, they looked instead for a five starter and found Sidney Ponson. You can debate the merits of this idea at your leisure, but that's not our concern here.

It took nearly a month for Chamberlain to go from set-up man, a role similar to what Hughes is doing now, to a full fledged starter--and it was not long afterward that Chamberlain hurt his shoulder. While the back-breaker was likely a fall Chamberlain took in Texas, the injury was likely building for some time--whether or not it had to do with the pitching transition, we can only guess, but it's highly doubtful that the Yankees would overlook it.


If Hughes took the same trajectory, in that the Yankees started to stretch him out now, we would be looking at the middle of August before he would really be a full-fledged starter. One needs to forget that Hughes started the season as a starter; after so long in the bullpen the arm strength and endurance that was there has likely gone.

Waiting until mid-August in the thick of a division race that will likely be decided by one or two games at most is not in the Yankees' best interests, especially when one considers how burnt out the bullpen would get covering for Hughes in the first few innings when a pitch count would prevent him from going more than four or five innings.

Should Hughes be in the bullpen long term? Absolutely not. Next season, he should come to Spring Training a starter and then remain a starter all through the season.

If the goal, however, is winning the World Series in 2009, the Yankees can't afford to muddle with Hughes for a month and risk exposing the bullpen even more. We saw the trouble that comes when Aceves is removed from the bullpen this week; any time the bullpen has to pitch more than two or three innings, especially in a row, it resists over-exposure--and then it gets hit. With Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte already so inefficient, Hughes on a limited pitch count is exactly the thing the Yankees don't need.


There's no one to blame on this one but the Yankees themselves.

The Yankees, for whatever reason, appeared to have not thought it through entirely in bringing Wang back before coming up with a plan for Hughes.

In an over-used cliché, "it is what it is", and the Yankees will have to make their peace with it.

Joba's a Starter. Get Used to It.

After last night's game I participated in the (usually) harmless activity of updating my Facebook status.

I changed it to: "Still think Joba belongs in the bullpen? Find another sport."


You would think that, being friends with mostly knowledgeable Yankee fans, I would find the majority of commenters agreeing with me. This was not so. Among the comments I received:

(By the way, if I've quoted you here, it's nothing personal. I promise we're still friends).

"the 12 k's further proves he should be in the pen... let him come in for 1 or 2 innings and strike out 6 hitters and give up zero runs."

"he's a bullpen kind of pitcher, he's not a "throw heat for 6-7+" innings kind of guy, he's a "throw fireballs for 1-2 innings" kind of guy, that's what made him the perfect setup guy for Mo, and a potential successor for Mo."

"I didn't watch last night's game, all I'm going by is what I've seen, and from what I've seen. Joba's style is better suited for the bullpen, where he doesn't have to tone down his fastball to maintain his energy level for 6+ innings. Besides, who says a guy with four pitches shouldn't be in the bullpen? We need someone who can get us to Mo without imploding, and if that takes a four-pitch repetoire, let's do it."


As you might imagine, I have quite the headache.

Let me break it down for you, all the multitude of reasons that Joba is--and should remain--a starter.

a) Joba's "stuff" is not #5-starter stuff, it's #1 ace. The only, and I repeat, only reason Joba is in the five spot instead of Pettitte is because of the innings limit.

Joba has made 17 career starts and in NINE of these starts--that is, more than half--he's pitched into the sixth inning allowing one run or fewer. That the offense hasn't always been there shouldn't be a factor here. Joba has no control over what the offense does or doesn't do.

If you caught it last night, over his first 16 starts Joba's ERA was 2.85. Only SIX starters were better in that time span, and they have names like Johan Santana.



b)If you're wondering about the innings limit, it's not a reflection on Joba's ability so much as it is a way to ease him into the starters' workload without, you know, destroying his arm.

I point you in the direction of the Verducci effect.

Think of it as though relieving is a sprint and starting is a marathon. A sprinter can't just go and run a marathon without proper conditioning. He'll hurt himself tremendously. It's the same thing: a starting pitcher cannot handle a sudden, drastic increase in innings pitched without injury risk; for a reliever-turned-starter the risk is higher.

Likewise, while we're on this topic, constantly moving Joba back and forth will destroy his arm. Not "may", but "will".

Starting and relieving are two very different types of pitching that result in different mentalities and different strain on the arm. We saw Joba get hurt last season going from reliever to starter even when the change was being made as gradually as possible.

It's like that old saying--abuse it and lose it.


c) I understand the bridge-to-Mo arguments, but, who then takes Joba's spot in the rotation? Hughes or Wang?

Both Hughes and Wang, when pitching well, are good pitchers, and show flashes of greatness. Joba's better.

Among the three, Joba's the only one whose ceiling, after a season in the majors, still remains "ace".

Let's not forget here, Joba is still 23 years old. He is going to struggle, at times, and what matters is not that he struggles but how he responds to it. Last night he had an awful first inning, but then responded by striking out 12 in five innings, and the last eight in a row, while not allowing another batter to reach second base until the sixth inning.

If he languishes in the bullpen, you set back his development and how quickly Joba can really help the team.

Would you rather have Joba pitch into the eighth, or come in to pitch the eighth?


d) It's easier to find other relievers than starters.

Relievers abound. It's much, much easier to find a relief pitcher that can get the job done than another starter that can give you Ace-quality stuff.

Surely, in the realm of relievers, there's one that can pitch the 8th inning. Brian Bruney was doing great till he got hurt; right now Phil Coke looks like the man, which is slightly ironic given that his career is a bit reverse-Joba.

If the bullpen continues to falter (which, alas, it looks like it will do), Cashman has a lot of moves at his disposal which are much easier than trying to recondition Joba for the bullpen and wreck his arm.



e) Seriously, has there ever been a relief pitcher with four plus pitches? Would you put Zach Greinke in the bullpen? What about Johan Santana, since the Mets could have really used a bullpen guy last year.




Joba helps the Yankees most as a starter. You'd best get used to it.