Breaking Down the Yankees for the Second Half - The Bullpen

[So the All Star Game is officially over--and we can thus consider ourselves in the second half.

This is where it gets fun.

All of those days players got rested in the first half? Well, now they have to play. Now the pennant races start to heat up, and every move a team makes, be it a trade, a free agent signing or simply bringing someone up from AAA has even more added meaning.

What do we expect from the Yankees?

I'm going to do a series of posts addressing this, because there's so much to say that having it all in one post would a) kill your eyes and mine, and b) give me carpal tunnel at the age of 23.]

Since this is the last post in the series, I'll provide you with an index:

The Rotation
The Lineup, Part 1
The Lineup, Part 2
The Bench

Now it's on to the mother of all things Yankees:

The Bullpen

To do this post justice, one has to figure out who should be included, and who might be a little more expendable--since bullpens are fluid and change so much over the course of a season.

In this instance I'm going to settle around the "core" of Mariano Rivera, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Brian Bruney, David Robertson and Brett Tomko--the guys that have been around (or should have been around) all season. Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo will get passing nods, but we'll go ahead and pretend that Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez were not utterly awful.

As a whole, the bullpen struggled early--when most of the rotation did, as well--but the call-up of Alfredo Aceves seemed to work miracles. That one move allowed for the short relievers to remain short relievers, for Coke and Hughes to basically claim the eighth between them and for Robertson and Tomko not to be faced with undue pressure.

When Aceves was moved from the bullpen for a spot start, we saw the 'pen fall apart again--though, this time, fortunately, the All Star break came at exactly the right time.

As long as Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte are utterly ineffective, look for Aceves to remain in the bullpen.

(The so-called bullpen core in alphabetical order)

Alfredo Aceves

The statistics will tell you that Alex Rodriguez, and not Alfredo Aceves is the more valuable of the two Yankees to make their first appearance this season in early May, but Aceves' value lies in far more than just the numbers he's posted.

The easiest way to explain what Aceves has meant to the Yankees in 2009 out of the bullpen would be to say that Aceves is pitching in a role similar to that of Ramiro Mendoza, but his numbers out of the bullpen are actually closer to what Mariano Rivera posted in 1996.

Since Aceves can pitch multiple innings at a time without getting worn down, the short relievers--especially guys like Phil Coke and David Robertson--do not have to pitch nearly as much as they otherwise would. This not only saves their arms from, uh, being Proctor'd, but helps keep them more effective over the long haul.

Look for Aceves to remain in the bullpen for now--after the disaster in Anaheim, the Yankees probably don't want to mess with the bullpen too much--but if Mitre, the presumed new fifth starter, bombs and the Yankees decide not to go after Halladay (or another, you know, more attainable starter), Aceves could end up the fifth starter.

In which case we will all have to hold our breath in the second halves of games started by Chamberlain and Pettitte.


Brian Bruney

The season that, for Bruney, started with so much promise has quietly turned into a disaster. He'd earned himself the eighth inning role before going down on the DL with an elbow problem, worked his way back only to go back on it after just one appearance, and now seems to have lost the command that had been so important in the first place.

In short, it's the return of the 2007 version of Brian Bruney.

The Yankees really want to get him right--if he can somehow recover his arm strength and command, the Yankees could consider, more seriously, the idea of sending Hughes down to AAA to stretch him out as a starter (although I explain here why I don't think it would work), but even if Bruney did recover, the risk inherent in relying on a power pitcher who's twice been on the DL in the same season with elbow problems is an enormous one.

It's a shame, really, because Bruney showed so much promise in 2008 before hurting his foot, and then again in early 2009.

I don't know what happened for Bruney to have such awful karma, but something apparently did.

Going forward, Bruney will likely be used in low-leverage situations until his command improves, or he will be used in mop-up like roles after the starters (yet again) are inefficient. He'll have to work his way back to the 8th and even then there is no guarantee.


Phil Coke

The battle between Good Coke and Bad Coke may be as addicting to watch as the battle between Good Melky and Bad Melky. Actually, the entire reason to want to see him pitch is to watch the postgame interviews afterward.

Coke struggled in the beginning, found a groove, and then struggled again in his most recent appearance in Anaheim.

On the whole, he's been fairly dependable, but tends to give up too many hits--6 HR in 38 IP is not a portent for good things to come--so the Yankees are best served if he is used very sparingly, which, thanks to Aceves and Hughes, he now is.

Should Dámaso Marte stop playing catch and start playing baseball, he could help ease some of Coke's LOOGY duties, and provide some relief for the Yankees, who are playing with fire.


Phil Hughes

Probably the most controversial reliever, not because he's pitched poorly, but because he probably should have never been in the bullpen in the first place.

As a starter, Hughes wasn't exactly dominating anywhere outside of Texas, but he was getting better, and showing improved consistency and efficiency. Considering that this is his first healthy season since all the way back in 2006, that's not something to be taken lightly.

As a reliever, Hughes has just dominated. You can see the splits here, but to sum:

Hughes' ERA is 0.98, his BAA is .115, OBPA is .182 and WHIP is 0.655.

Hughes has only pitched 18.1 innings in relief, and his BABIP is an insane .147, so there's certainly a case to be made that the law of averages will catch up to him, but with relievers much of the time, you only have a small sample size to use, so you ride the hot arm as long as it stays hot.

If the Yankees have learned only one thing here, it's that if Hughes, for whatever reason, loses his value as a starter next season, he still has plenty of value as a reliever.

Look for him to keep the 8th inning role in the second half unless the Yankees have utterly no choice but to stretch him out again. If that happens, than the Yankees will probably have bigger issues than what they do about the eighth inning...


Mariano Rivera

He's Mo. Really.

He was getting hit more often in the beginning of the season, which had some worried, but this seems to have been a result of recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and perception, since what he did last season was simply historic.

He's back to his old Mo self now, notching his 500th save and 1st career ERA in the same game.

In the second half, the Yankees probably won't want anything more than for him to keep doing his thing. Wearing number 42, he is, after all, the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything.


David Robertson

The easiest way to explain Robertson in this: when he throws strikes, he's unhittable. When he doesn't, he's unwatchable.

When Robertson comes into a game in low-leverage situations, he throws strikes.

When Robertson comes into a game in high-leverage situations, he throws balls.

You can see why this is a problem.

In a mop-up type role, Robertson is fine for the bullpen, but the problem is that the Yankees play a lot more close games than they do blowouts, and they need relievers that can either protect a lead or keep another team's lead within reach.

Look for him to stick to low-leverage situations, and don't be shocked if some combination of Chien Ming Wang getting healthy again and Sergio Mitre pitching well sends him back on the AAA bus--though likely not before Melancon or Albaladejo.


Brett Tomko

The problem with Tomko is that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

Though a former starter, right now he can't really pitch more than two innings at a time, and he's seldom seen in anything other than a mop-up role or in an extra inning game when all other pitchers have been used.

That said, I think he does get a bit of a bum rap--for what it's worth, Coke has given up more home runs. Then again, Coke's pitched 38 innings and Tomko's only pitched 20...

Although Tomko is a DFA candidate, it would seem more likely that Mark Melancon or Jonathan Albaladejo would be sent back down to Scranton before the Yankees parted ways with Tomko. We shall see.

Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo

Melancon, once hailed as the future Mo, was probably called up from AAA Scranton too soon. He's struggled in AAA since being sent back down, and again since being called up. There's too much talent to write him off, but he does need some more time.

Albaladejo didn't pitch well early and got sent down, has pitched lights out when recalled after Wang got hurt the second time, but then got sent back down...to make room for Melancon.

If Girardi is riding the hot reliever, right now he should stick with Albaladejo.



dude, if you made it this far, I kind of want to hug you...

Because All Yankee Fans Should Be Born After a Yankee Win (Postgame Notes 1 May 2009)

My baby Niecephew (my wonderful, loving brother and his wife decided they wanted to be surprised) is due to arrive in this world at about 2 AM.

He/She/It will arrive on the heels of quite possibly the most dramatic Yankee win thus far in the young season.

It's hard to pick where to start, here.

At first it seemed like the Yankees would find a way to grit-out a subpar Andy Pettitte and win 4-0 or perhaps 4-2, then it seemed like the curse of the awful bullpen would hit again and the Yankees would lose 9-4, and then, finally, in the later innings, the Yankees said, "our bullpen may be bad, but, dude, we're not like Anaheim bad."

Or something like that.


Andy Pettitte had far from his best stuff tonight. By the time the game got to the sixth inning, it seemed like some sort of miracle that the Yankees were still up 4-0.

It's worrying because, although the Yankees won the game, it's his second so-so start in a row. He hasn't been downright awful in the way Chien Ming Wang has, but he has struggled. Then again, Boston has hit him well of late and the Angels are, well, the Angels, so it probably isn't worth getting too fussed over at the moment.

The Yankee bullpen, on the other hand, is a concern.

As soon as Pettitte left the game, everyone held their breath, and it failed.

One shouldn't worry about Melancon tonight: he made one bad pitch, but he was not responsible for loading the bases. The attempt to nab the runner coming home on ball four showed a pretty amazing gymnastics ability...

José Veras, however, looks flat-out awful right now. He can't seem to find an out pitch and is constantly nibbling--I still haven't figured out how he put together those three scoreless innings against Oakland.

Edwar Ramirez always seems to struggle against the Angels, so perhaps the Yankees were lucky the game didn't get out of hand with him pitching.

Jonathan Albaladejo had a 1-2-3 eighth (with some defensive help), which has to be considered refreshing after he struggled in Detroit.

Still, there are some major bullpen issues in that the Yankees don't know what they're going to get. Until pitchers have set roles, like they did last year when at their best, they will probably struggle. Hopefully the Yankees find a way to fix that, because once they do, there simply may be no stopping this team.


The Yankee offense is making it look like 2008 was a fluke, and instead they've picked right up off of 2007, with the ability, seemingly, to score runs almost at will.

It's not just that the Yankees are scoring runs, it's that they are scoring them almost every game. In 23 games they've been held to less than four runs three times, and they have never been shut out.

Oh, and Teixeira's hitting about .192 and A-Rod isn't in the line up...

Not only that, but tonight, after the offense fell behind 9-4 after being up 4-0, they didn't give up, and showed a type of fight that we seldom, if ever, saw last season.

Right now, the clutch hitting is coming off the bats of Melky Cabrera and Ramiro Peña--perhaps the two guys you would normally consider least likely to be RBI men, but without their contributions in the 8th inning tonight, the ninth, in which Brian Fuentes didn't retire a single batter (Teixeira walk, Matsui single, Canó single, Posada walkoff hit), would not have mattered.

If anything, tonight's win can serve notice to the rest of the league: even if this team currently has the 13th worse bullpen in the AL, they can still find a way to win.


Nick Swisher did get HBP in the elbow and had to leave the game. However, X-Rays are negative and he is Day-to-Day.

Oh, and just for the fun of it: the Yankees have assured themselves at least a series split with the Angels.


***

I will be at tomorrow's Yankee game, sec 309, row 7, seat 22 or 23. Feel free to come by and say hi. Alas, I don't have a fancy phone, so if you want to email to set something up, you'll have to do it tonight.

Yankees survive Bullpen Scare; Ride Swisher's Two HR to Win (Postgame Notes 29 April 2009)

The final score won't reflect it, being 8-6, but Joba Chamberlain had his best outing of the season, allowing only one run on two hits and three walks.

He had little-if any-command in the early innings and eventually worked himself into a bases loaded situation in the early goings with Miguel Cabrera, a .444 hitter with the bases loaded, due up before striking out.

That was a turning point, and Joba never looked back. He was dominant for the rest of his appearance and probably could have come back out for the 8th inning had he not been sitting so long since the Yankees worked the bases loaded via walks.

The Yankee offense fell back into a pattern they had often in 2007, where in they used one big offensive inning-tonight seven runs, including one of St. Nick Swisher's two home runs, instead of 10-to stake themselves out to a big lead they could ride all the way past a rough outing for Jonathan Albaladejo and a three-run home run off of Mariano Rivera that brought the Tigers to within two.

While Ken Singleton commented that Mo may not have had time to warm up, one had to worry a bit that it's the second time he's given up a home run in as many appearance, and that on the radar gun his velocity was way down.

He had not pitched since Friday, which might have something to do with it. At least, one hopes that's the case and there's not something more sinister at work here.

It's March 1st. It's okay to step away from the ledge

Apparently, I never realized that Grapefruit League games actually matter.

Right.

Are we so starved for baseball that we take games in the first week of an extended exhibition season and use these to judge the fortunes of our team in 2009?

Right now, the "regulars" leave the game after four or five innings and the pitchers you see are not your Opening Day starters.

Right now, all that matters is keeping the team healthy and getting them up to full strength.

Thus, Jorge Posada and Edwar Ramirez and Jonathan Albaladejo are legitimate concerns (even if grouping Albie here is pushing it a little bit).

Jesus Montero is a bit of a concern, sure, but he is not supposed to impact the major league team for a couple of seasons...kid's 19 years old! When I was 19 years old, my biggest concerns were staying up till 3.30 AM to finish that paper on African myths...

What isn't a legitimate concern: worrying about losing games in the first week of exhibition play.

Seriously. Remember last spring training? How Robbie Canó hit .440ish? How'd that work out during the regular season?

While, right now, Brett Gardner is pwning Melky, remember, there's still a whole month before the regular season starts, and anything can happen, so, I'd exercise some caution before going out to buy those "Gardner" t-shirts just yet.

Spring Training right now is a time to sit back, be jealous of sunny Florida while in NY it's about to dump a foot of snow, take a seat with a cup of hot tea and Baseball Prospectus 2009, take a deep breath...

...and relax.

Postgame Notes: April 25, 2008 (Guest Post)

Hey guys, Brent again here. Another guest post? This is what happens when the author of this great blog has more of a life than you (as in, me) do. Becca, yes, I'm kidding.

Anyway!

After the depressing news about Brian Bruney, the Yankees were to set out with their main stopper, Andy Pettitte, to get the first win of the three game series against the Cleveland Indians. What the Yankees did were exactly the opposite of their plan.

Pettitte looked ok up to... the dreaded fifth inning. I will be honest, I underestimate Jhonny Peralta. I even mumbled to myself, "Pettitte, just throw a strike" before his 3-1 offering to Peralta. Yes, I bite my tongue hard after the pitch. One more solo shot (Franklin Gutierrez's solo HR) later, and I was left shaking my head and questioning whether jinxes still exist.

Though watching Jonathan Albaladejo's curveball and A-Rod playing great defense at third base almost washed the taste of a loss out of my mouth, the Yankees had the lead and squandered it.

Tomorrow, the Yankees bring out Ian Kennedy to pitch against left-hander Jeremy Sowers. The question: who (if any) is Girardi taking out of the line-up tomorrow? Giambi? Abreu?

OPTIMIST TAKE:

1) Jason Giambi: In the battle of HGH vs. steroids, steroids proved to be the winner tonight. Giambi took Byrd deep twice, having himself a 3 RBI game. I have to say, as much as Giambi may give you negative results at first, his ability to get on base and his power will always be an asset. As long as he can stay relatively consistent, the Yankees have an advantage.

2) Jonathan Albaladejo: He looked great, pitching in relief and giving the Yankees two needed innings of no-hit ball. He helped keep the game close and, even better, we didn't have to see anyone else pitch, giving the Yankees mostly a full bullpen to use, in case Kennedy bombs.

And yes, tomorrow's another day. Good thing baseball isn't played on a football schedule. That would been a heart-attack and a half.

Pregame Notes 14 April 2008

There's no easy way about it.

The Yankees knew April was tough, with 18 of 20 games on the road, and the two home games coming against the Sox.

However, the injuries just keep coming. First it was Jeter and Posada; now Molina is down as well, and, while not an injury, Joba's personal situation will have a similar effect in rendering him unavailable for at least three games (thoughts and prayers are with Joba and family).

Without a long reliever, the bullpen can only go so long. Wang's complete game on Friday was a godsend, but last night's poor outing from Phil Hughes relegates it a moot point. The Yankees don't have a long reliever because neither of the top candidates--Rasner or Karstens--had a particularly encouraging Spring Training, but the bullpen can only go so long before they're scorched.

The Yankees face Tampa Bay tonight, in Tampa, so, to extricate good news from the situation, the Yankees will not be playing in winter weather.

Wilson Betemit has been sent to the DL with conjunctivitis (pink eye) so that Chad Moeller can be brought up to catch and Albaledejo has been brought up to replace Joba who is on the bereavement list.

Also of note, Alex Rodriguez's wife is expecting this week, though given that Morgan Ensberg is on the bench already, it should not be the Yankees number one concern.

Shelley's Shoes

Some notes from today's exhibition game against Tampa, as gathered from various blog sources and Gameday:

1) Shelley's slide was dirty. It doesn't mean I don't like him as a player or that I'll never root for him again, just that his slide was, well, dirty. If you see a picture, his spikes are nearly taking Iwamura's manhood with them, and, well, I'm no athlete...not even a male...but that play wasn't clean.

That said, it's great to see these kids playing with some intensity. This is not Joe Torre's team.

1a) It doesn't sound like the pitch that buzzed Longoria was intentional, and that the umpire over reacted.

2) Albaladejo had a poor showing, which is bad no matter what, but when you're at this part of Spring Training, when you're getting called into the manager's office because he's about to cut you it's REALLY not good. Albie may have punched himself a one-way ticket to Scranton.

3) Posada had a double and Patterson pitched well.

4) Thoughts with Stump Merrill

5) SYRACUSE BROKE MY HEART. I'm sorry. I need to get it out there. I have tickets for tomorrow, Friday and Saturday, and I was hoping to get one last look at 'Cuse before I graduate.

The irony is that they won it all when I was in high school, and will have a better chance next year, when I am gone.

I Miss Twinkies (Exhibition Notes, Game 5)

Okay, I miss all those devil dog-like things with immortal shelf lives, but that's not what you care about, I'm guessing.

Anyway, some notes:

1) I missed the first half of the game, when the Yankees scored all their runs, taking a mid-term. I'm assuming there's no correlation there.

2) I did see Joba's second inning of work. He looked shaky, but I'm assuming he was using the opportunity to work on a curve and a change, in which case the shakiness is to be expected. If he's still pitching like this in the middle of May, well, then I might get a little concerned, but, dude, if you can hit 97 MPH on March 5th, I'm not exactly worried.

3) Albaladejo was good enough, in my opinion, but Edwar is a little worrying. He's simply either really good or really bad, and, well, when it's the ninth inning with a one run lead in September at Fenway with the division on the line, do you really want to be worrying about whether or not it's a good day or a bad day?

4) So right now I'm thinking the Yankees may get more production out of their first base platoon situation than the mainstays. Or maybe Shelley is just that insane.

5) I'm waiting for this game to end so I can go make pasta and study Neuro, but it doesn't want to end. One of those things, I guess.

Jesus, Shelley, and Even More Snow

Some notes from today's exhibition game against the Phillies:

1) Shelley had five of the Yankees' nine RBI on two swings, a three run home run and two run double. If there's supposed to be a competition for the first base spot, Shelley looks to be in the clear lead, given what Giambi did yesterday and Ensberg did today (ie, nothing). However, it's only one game, and it'd be an awful mistake to judge who should get the first base job based on one game.

2) So we all know Jesus Montero is supposed to be good--he's eighteen (!) and one of, if not the, Yankees' top offensive prospects. However, that doesn't make him going yard on the, what was it, second pitch he saw (?) any less awesome. When he makes it to the bigs (and if he keeps healthy, it's a when and not an if), I imagine there'll be some pretty funny Jesus-related comments.

3) Pitching wise, Wang was okay--he threw a few too many balls for my liking, but as I said before, you can't judge a player based on game, and even less than two innings, especially given what Wang's done for us the past couple of years. Anyway, he only gave up one hit, so I really can't complain.

--Apparently, according to LoHud, Rasner hit 107 mph on the gun. They didn't show the gun on the screen, but you have to wonder how much control can you have over a pitch like that? I'm not even sure Joba throws that hard.

[EDIT: Rebecca, the word gullible is actually in the dictionary. Under G.]

--Only saw one inning each from Albaladejo and Traber, but I liked what I saw from both, Traber especially. Hope it continues; I feel somewhat more reassured when I hear that it's Traber coming out of the 'pen and not Sean Henn.

--I keep forgetting Ohlendorf is a Princeton guy.

4) MLB.tv has a new player. It doesn't lag as much as the original player, which is awesome, but it's still not better than watching the game on TV when you can. The Phillies announcers gave the game a little bit of an old-time feel, which I really liked.


5) In the past week, we've had ONE day without snow in Syracuse. I'm not talking about one day without flurries, but bona-fide road-covering, traffic-snarling, car-burying snow. Even my Freshman year it had kinda-sorta stopped by the beginning of March...and it really wouldn't be such a big deal except I'm driving home on Friday for Spring Break, and it would be nice to actually be able to get my car out of the driveway.



Anyway. Good game. I will probably miss most of the live broadcast tomorrow, but there's a reason they invented DVR.

Snowed In

Okay, try as I might, I can't think of any Yankees' Classic Moments that would have to do with snow, except on those occasions in which a game has been snowed out, and those are hardly classic occasions!

I do have to say, there's about ten inches on the ground right now; there is so much snow on my car that I can't actually lift the trunk to get to my scraper. Ooops.

As of right now, it looks like Johan Santana might be headed to the Sox. Please keep a few things in mind:

1) No matter what, Santana still has to approve the deal.

2) It's not that the Yankees don't want Santana, but Hughes AND Kennedy? No dice. Even a casual fan could see that.

3) We took a step in the right direction yesterday, trading Tyler Clippard for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo from the Nats. Albaladejo had posted a WHIP of .62, which is slightly Joba-like. Clippard had a few good starts for the Yankees early in the year, but he has been overshadowed by Phil, Joba and Ian, and even Horne and Sanchez, who are still in the minors.

It looks like a good move for both teams.