Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of an Unlikely Victory (Postgame Notes 25 August 2009)

The win was there for the taking.

Down by five runs in the ninth, the Yankees clawed back to within one run, and had men on second and first base with no one out and Swisher at the plate.

Nick Swisher doesn't much like hitting at Yankee Stadium, but he still draws quite a few walks, and against a pitcher that couldn't throw strikes, the call for him to bunt in that situation will likely haunt Joe Girardi and the Yankees until their next win.

The bunt may have been the conventional move and the by-the-book move, but there were two problems with it: Swisher's not a typical bunter, and Frank Francisco had been showing himself to be eminently hittable.

The only significant problem I have had with Joe Girardi all year is that he plays by the book just a little too often.

Sometimes--rarely, but still--momentum or a unique situation calls for the book to be thrown out the window.

That's exactly tonight. The Yankees had sent six men to the plate before Swisher in the ninth inning, and all six of them had reached via walk or hit.

When Swisher showed bunt, it became clear that Girardi was playing for the tie and not the win (which is normal when you're home), but one has to ask, had this been any other inning, would Swisher really have bunted there? If this game was on the road, would Swisher have bunted there?

Absolutley not.


****

That aside, this game wasn't lost in the ninth inning. It was lost when Joba Chamberlain blew a 4-0 lead.

Some stuff from Joe P. of River Ave Blues:

Nine of 10 runs scored after bases empty, two outs...in both innings Joba allowed runs, it came down to his inability to retire the No. 9 hitter...


Sure, it'd have been nice if Chad Gaudin had not given up those two bombs, but Gaudin didn't put the Yankees in a 7-4 hole to start.

Right now, the fact that Joba is the Yankees' #4 starter in the postseason is a little disconcerting. He's still young, but he's got some serious on-field growing up to do.

Why Do We Worry About Innings More than Pitch Counts?

As some of you know, I'm in the middle of reading Baseball Between the Numbers. It's a very interesting read, even though some of the statistics themselves go over my head. Still, I understand the theory, and some of the authors' findings interest me.

One such was their very simple conclusion that throwing a lot of innings doesn't necessarily increase injury risk, but doing so while fatigued does.

The chapter in which that is such discussed argues that there's really no decent reason not to go to a four man rotation, and that the last team to really try it--the 1995 Royals--failed not because the pitchers threw too many innings but because they threw too many pitches in the games they did throw.

Pitching outings, they say, can be divided into four categories based on how many pitches that the starter has thrown, with more pitches meaning more fatigue and an increased injury risk.

Now, as you know, many young pitchers are tracked by the innings--not the total pitches--that the pitcher has thrown. The Verducci Effect, which has been discussed here before, uses innings as the theory's measure.

However, using innings as a measure here is misleading. There is, for example, a huge difference between pitching nine or ten-pitch innings and thirty-pitch innings. Roy Halladay typically throws so many complete games because he keeps his pitch count so low.

Even more, even just using pitches themselves as a measure is misleading.

A pitch thrown with two out and the bases empty is highly different than a pitch thrown with, say, second and third and no one out in a tie game. It's different in terms of stress, in terms of positioning, and in terms of mental fatigue.

Imagine Joba Chamberlain's performance last night, constantly pitching out of jams, and contrast that to CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett pitching against the New York Mets.

Sabathia and Burnett are throwing more innings, and certainly in Sabathia's case more pitches, but because Chamberlain is throwing higher-stress innings, he is fatigued and rendered ineffective much earlier.

Concepts like the Verducci Effect certainly have proved themselves to have enough merit to be taken seriously, but one has to wonder if perhaps there are ways to improve on the theory.

What's more dangerous for, say, Joba Chamberlain? Is it him throwing 160 innings alone? Once again, a Roy Halladay 160 innings is not the same as a Joba Chamberlain 160 innings.

Just some food for thought.

The Problem with Chien Ming Wang

Let me explain the problem the Yankees' have with Chien Ming Wang in as simple terms as I can:

1). Chien Ming Wang is not pitching well after coming off the DL, which he went on ostensibly for a hip/foot thing, but more likely that he had an ERA of nearly 35. He has not made it out of the fifth inning yet this season and tonight couldn't make it out of the third. Although the Yankees have quite the offense, the short starts burn the bullpen--the Yankees used three relievers tonight, including both the long man and the displaced starter--and against good teams, the Yankees don't have a chance with Wang on the mound right now.

2) Chien Ming Wang is out of options, which means the Yankees cannot send him down to AAA without him being on waivers, where any other team would be likely to claim him. The only options the Yankees have, if Wang is not starting, is to either a) place him in the bullpen, where there's no guarantee he'd be effective there, or b) DL him again, even though teams are coming under increased scrutiny for DLing players who may not be so much hurt as that they simply aren't playing well, especially pitchers

3) Phil Hughes is throwing well out of the bullpen, but long term he projects as a starter, and while he's had a couple shaky outings this season, he's also had a couple good ones, and a few Andy Pettitte like bend-but-never-completely-break-and-keep-the-team-in-the-game outings. Right now, there is no question that he is a more effective starter than Chien Ming Wang.

If Hughes languishes in the bullpen for long, even in long relief, he'll lose the arm strength he spent building up in spring training.

The best solution for the Yankees at the moment is clear: Hughes needs to (again) replace Wang in the rotation. It gives the team a better chance to win.

The problem then becomes, what to do with Wang?

There is another possibility--the Yankees could trade Wang, or attempt to--but this option is also fraught with difficulties. One of two things is likely to happen. Either 1) a team buys low, Wang figures it out, becomes effective for another team and the Yanks receive little in compensation, or 2) teams don't think Wang can figure it out, and there are no takers.

It's much easier for a team to claim someone off of waivers, as Wang would be if the Yankees try to send him down to AAA, as they do not have to give up to get and the move becomes much more low risk.

It's easy to see why the Yankees don't want to give up on Wang: he did win 19 games two years in a row, but he also had a spate where, in four of his last six starts, he allowed five earned runs or more. It looks like a blip on the radar, and it probably is, but because of the foot injury, we will never know for sure. Definitely, the foot injury is the more important culprit here, but all things should be considered.


So if I'm the Yankees, what do I do? What can I do?

Wang's next scheduled start is against the Washington Nationals. I would not be surprised to see Wang make this start if only because it would give the Yankees some more time to figure out what to do, but while he remains in the rotation Phil Hughes does not, and the Yankees have to consider if the short term benefit is worth the long term setback in that Hughes would lose the starter's arm strength. It's much easier to make a starter a reliever than vice versa.

If the Yankees are going to risk going with Wang over the long term, then they have to seriously consider sending Hughes down to AAA, but if the Yankees' ultimate goal is to win the World Series, then they need to find a way to put Hughes back in the rotation.


I know it seems harsh and judgmental on my part, but having Hughes in the rotation right now would 1) give the Yankees a better chance to win this year, and 2) be better for Hughes' development as a starter.


Whatever the Yankees decide, there will be a lot of scrutiny from every side. At the very least, they should have learned the lesson: panic moves don't work.

Game 30: NY Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Greetings! Elizabeth here from Blogging the Mystique to pinch-blog for Rebecca, who's at her brand-new nephew's snip-snip bris.

I missed the top of the 1st because my Firefox was refusing to load, so let's start things off with the...

Bottom of the 1st
Alex Rodriguez did not homer in his first at-bat today, so the masses can start booing him again.

Important Yankee notes:

Brett Tomko is at Oriole Park at Camden Yards after being called up today in place of David Robertson, who must be racking up the frequent flier miles this season. I still say don't sleep on the kid. He's got good, strikeout stuff. Meanwhile, Brett Tomko will get another chance to prove himself after struggling with multiple teams.

Two hard-hit balls so far for Hughesy. Man, that Adam Jones can hit. My brother's the world's biggest Orioles fan and the kid was on the moon after Jones came to the Orioles for Mr. Disabled List Erik Bedard.

I'd like to see a lot more of Nick Markakis popping out this season. The right-fielder my brother called a "Greek God of Baseball" is quickly becoming an elite player. Watch for him in St. Louis this July.

(How goofy is Cervelli's throwing motion back to the pitcher?)

Nice inning for Hughes, despite the double over the bag. He threw 16 pitches.

Top of the 2nd
Nice to hear Michael Kay backpedaling about his "driven deep to right field" calls on mid-range pop flies.

...Except he just did it again.

It's pretty clear that tonight's HP umpire (Jeff Nelson--no relation) isn't going to call that ridiculous inside pitch tonight. Pitch FX tells me that at least three of the Yankees hitters' strikeouts last night were on balls in the hitter's own batter's box.

I'm puzzled as to why an umpire's never whacked Robbie in the head for tapping his shin guards.

The Yankees really shouldn't be helping out Eaton. Newsflash, Bombers: he's not a good pitcher.


Bottom of the 2nd
Hey, there's Luke Scott. I was wondering where he was last night.

Kay and Singy talking about Girardi's unpopularity in the Bronx lately. Kay mentioned Girardi hoping he'll be embraced--"turn the team around," he said. It's been my opinion that Girardi is creating a toxic atmosphere for his team--that his weakness is not in his in-game managing but in how he manages the personalities on his team. I hope he can release some of the pressure he appears to put on his ballclub, but I'm not sure how someone like Girardi would go about doing that.

Big error by Swisher. Luke Scott had stopped at third and Swisher inexplicably decided to throw all the way to home plate, missed every single cutoff in the process. Now the Orioles have 2nd and third and no one out. 1-0 Orioles

Phil Hughes is in big danger of the wheels falling off his start, here. I really love that phrase, don't I? And I always use it incorrectly.

Bases loaded. Still no one out.

Sac fly for Brian Roberts. 2-0 Orioles. The Yankees should be able to make these runs up against Eaton. Should being the operative word.

Oh for goodness sakes... 3-0 Orioles. Who are these Yankees?

4-0 Orioles. I need to stop live-blogging here. I'm really bad luck. I still think the Yankees can make the runs up, though. The next inning or so should give us a clue about whether or not the offense shows up. Meanwhile, how soon is Wang coming back?

I'm assuming the rest of this eight-year contract isn't going to be so cringe-inducing. Right? Right?

Is Aceves warming up yet? 7-0 Orioles on Aubry Huff's 3-run home run. I don't think the Yankees should be able to make up this deficit, but it would certainly be nice if they did.

Why is Edwar warming up and not Aceves? In case he has to come in mid-inning?

I'm going to interrupt this lovely evening of baseball to pimp out my newest blog post: Thank You, Selena Roberts

Classy. Boo a 22 year old kid off the mound.

You know how sometimes you're watching your favorite team play and the opposing team sends in reliever after reliever and every single one boasts phenomenal numbers? Yeah. I wonder what opposing fans think when they see the Yankees bullpen door open?

Thanks, Ramirez. I'm sure that Hughes could have done that. 8-0 Orioles

Cue the sarcastic claps and the YES music....

Top of the 3rd
In case anyone is unaware, I'm the world's biggest Melky Cabrera fan. To that end...

That was a brilliant pitch by Cy Young contender Adam Eaton. Melky was just a little bit late on it.

The Yankees are really making a statement with their bats, aren't they?

Bottom of the 3rd. Seriously? That's all?
Nice play by Cano. Coulda used a few of those last inning.

I really do love Baltimore. The inner harbor is beautiful. Camden Yards is beautiful, too.

How great is the Yankee pitching this year? 9-0 Orioles. The good news is the Yankees only need 10 straight solo home runs to take the lead!

Top of the 4th
Rebecca will be back in a few.

Leadoff walk to Tex. Hey, if Teixeira and Alex get really hot at the same time, do you think the nickname "Tex-Rod" will catch on?

No? Well I'll try it.

So why is Brett Gardner on the Yankees' website under All-Star voting? How can I change this? Do you think I could start a grassroots "Vote Melky" campaign?

Hey! Tex-Rod walked! (It's catchy, right?)

Ducks on a pond!

Remember when everyone thought Swisher could hit for average? 9-1 Orioles on the sac fly by Swish.

Remember when Cano was hitting? GIDP. End of the inning.

Bottom of the 4th
Is it me or does Edwar often look completely clueless on the mound? Veras gets the same look on his face. It certainly doesn't make me feel great.

This game is virtually unwatchable. See what I do for you guys? Do you see? This is called sacrifice. 11-1 Orioles

Top of the 5th
Melky! Hey, Melky! Hi! That was a nice hit!

*ahem* Sorry. I get a little bit carried away. Double by Melky. He's now hit in 12 out of his last 13 games.

Little bit of comic relief there as Cervelli scares the bejeezus out of himself by letting his bat fly against the wall.

A fun little Melky stat for you: As a starter this year, Melky is now hitting .348 going into today's game.

2-run homer for Damon as the Yankees baby-step closer. 11-3 Orioles. And that was made possible by Melky's double. I'm just saying.

Well, I'm out, guys and gals! Rebecca will take her blog back. Enjoy the rest of the massacre game!

9.26 PM: Well now, that was a long day. I feel bad for my nephew...today was the bris, if you know what I mean, and now this! But if you'd like to see a picture of aunt and nephew you can see so here.

So Who Breaks the Streak? A PBP Contest!

Since we might as well have some fun with it:

Correctly pick the starter who breaks the Yankees' current losing streak and win...honor and glory.

Will it be:

CC Sabathia: Hasn't pitched terribly but team is snakebitten in his starts. 1-3 record, next start vs. BAL.

Phil Hughes: Stopped the four game losing streak in Detroit and got squeezed by the home plate ump. Left in the fourth b/c of pitch count. Next start vs. BAL.

Joba Chamberlain: Gave up four runs before recording an out, and then struck out 12, and 8 in a row vs. Boston. Next start vs. BAL.

AJ Burnett: Only gave up three runs to TB, but team couldn't provide any run support. Next start prob. vs. TOR.

Andy Pettitte: Gave up four runs, all on HR to TB. Next start prob. vs. TOR.


Choose wisely! The Yankees have not had a lead since Saturday!