Thing that Need to Happen at the Final Game

Things that need to happen at tomorrow's game:

1) Yogi throws out the first pitch (I believe this is actually happening--correct me if I'm mistaken)

2) Andy Pettitte pitches a scoreless first seven innings

2a) Andy picks off a runner at first
2b) Andy induces a 6-4-3 DP
2c) Jose Molina guns out a runner.


3) Joba Chamberlain strikes out the side in the eighth

4) Mo pitches a perfect ninth, end with the last batter--a strike-out of Kevin Millar--to the chants of Mar-i-a-no! Mar-i-a-no!

5) Derek Jeter hits a home run in the bottom of the eighth--the last Yankee hit at the Stadium, ever.

5a) It's caught by a 12 year-old boy leaning eversoslightly over the right-field wall.

6) George Steinbrenner, and George only, not Hank, not Hal, pulls the final lever.

7) Alex has a grand slam somewhere in there.

8) In the middle of the fifth or sixth inning, the fans start chanting Yank-ee Sta-di-um...




There are so many ways for tomorrow to be memorable.

There is only one thing that cannot happen, and I don't believe I need to tell you what that is.

Jorge Posada--What's the Catch?

In the comments of my last entry, one of you wonderful readers mentioned that you thought Jose Molina should be the starter, and not Jorge.

As much as I love Jose, and I do, this didn't sit right with me. This can't be, I thought, Jorge is all-star talent...maybe even Cooperstown...

However, I wasn't entirely sure, so I asked Jscape2000, over at Pinstripe Alley if he thought Posada was a good Cooperstown candidate. A discussion ensued, where we both thought that if Posada's career ended today, he would be a borderline candidate.

Being the baseball fans we are, however, the discussion didn't end there, so things transpired as they are wont to do (I love that word, wont), and we've spent the later evening comparing the two, with striking results.

This is what we found: (all statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference)

We started by looking at the games played by both. In Yogi Berra's day, as you probably know, the season was shorter--158 games as opposed to the 162 today.

Taking this into consideration, we find that for the seven years between Berra's age 25-31, he caught 135 games or more in six of those seasons. In the one year Berra didn't top 135, he caught 133, which is still nearly 85% of all games.

Jorge has caught 130 games every year since he was 28 (eight seasons). The lowest total games caught is 131, which is still enough to provide an accurate comparison.

Thus, having established that in a seven-year period in each career, Berra and Posada have played in a similar number of games, we can look at their regular season offensive statistics without (totally) comparing apples and oranges.

Jscape2000 nixed the old batting average stat, and went straight for .OPS+, which, for the uninitiated, is park-adjusted and season-adjusted on-base + slugging (which means that if Yogi has 150 and Jorge has 150, they're equivalent. Like adjusting prices for inflation). Again, we find numbers that are strikingly similar:

Berra: 135, 130, 137, 140, 137, 120, 142

Posada: 139, 117, 121, 144, 131, 109, 122, 154

Thus, while Berra was more consistent, over all, Posada's best seasons peaked higher than Yogi. Still, when you're comparing 140 to 144, there isn't much difference.

From there, we moved on to one of the "soft" factors, ie, postseason play. Given that Berra and Posada have both played in a similar number of postseasons (a lot!) it's worth a look, albeit with the caveat that Berra only played in the World Series, while Posada's played in LDS, LCS and World Series.

Unlike Berra, Posada's never won a World Series MVP (it's hard to, with Jeter and Rivera in the same line up): over 96 games, Posada is 236/.352/.379, well below his regular-season standards.

Berra, on the other hand, over 75 games: 274/.359/.452, which is close to his career standard of 285/.348/.482


The one offensive area in which Berra soundly excels over Posada is in strikeouts; Berra's career high over a season is 38, while Posada has struck out near 30 times in a month. However, this isn't to say Berra didn't find other ways to make outs; merely that he was more of a contact hitter. Berra averaged 54 walks a year; Jorge averages 87.

In terms of defense Berra threw out 141 of 295 base-stealers--just under half. Jorge, on the other hand, has caught 337 of 1139, just over a third. Base stealing has apparently become much more common now than it was in the 1940s and 1950s; both player's contemporaries have similar steal attempts.

It's a shame we don't have the stats from early in Yogi's career when he was likely tested more often and established himself (the records from before 1956 are incomplete. Either way we have to give him the defensive nod. Yogi also averaged fewer than 10 wild pitches a year; Jorge has averaged 34- with a bigger glove. Defense goes to Yogi hands down. 

The last thing we loooked at was Yogi's Hall of Fame induction.

Yogi Berra was elected in the 1972 class, with 85% of the vote, on his second ballot. Major Caveat: In 1971, the first year of Berra's eligibility, he lead the vote with 67% (you need 75% for induction). Thus, Yogi lead HoF Voting for two years.

It is also worth a note that Berra was a 15 time all-star, while Posada has played most of his career in the same league as Pudge Rodriguez. The writers have never taken to Posada the way they took to Yogi- Jorge has fewer funny stories and many more strikeouts. While that might not matter long term, we think it's an indicator that Jorge will have a hard time mustering HoF support- the writers will be inclined to drop him in the Bernie/Paulie Very Good category.


Conclusion:

JScape2000 and I both agree--Jorge is in. Offensively, Posada has higher peaks, and the higher career OBP also stands out (he's got a better eye), while defensively and in the playoffs, Berra gets the nod.

However, both have played in a similar number of games and made the postseason a similar number of years.

Posada's abilities have often been overshadowed by the other stars on the team--Jeter, especially, and Rivera (not to mention Alex Rodriguez, etc)--who many of us assume are first ballot HoFers.

Someone who compares as closely to Berra as Posada, should be in, regardless of the talent surrounding him. We'll see if the writers figure that out.

Jose Molina is an excellent back up, and could probably start on most other teams, but Jorge Posada is an elite talent. There's a reason he's been our starting catcher for much of the past decade, and a reason he got the four year deal he did. Cooperstown-quality catching doesn't come along as often as you think.