Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Analyzing the 2009 Yankee Rotation

Now that Andy Pettitte has officially returned to the Yankees, we can construct a basic rotation and do some basic, non-statistical analysis (that will come later, hopefully).

Right now the five starting pitchers likely to be on the Opening Day Roster are CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, CM Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain.

The most common rotation construction is:

Sabathia
Burnett
Wang
Pettitte
Joba


However, I have come across arguments for this construction as well:

Sabathia
Wang
Burnett
Pettitte
Joba

There are also arguments out there to switch Joba and Pettitte, but I don't see that happening and I'll explain why.

There seems to be one set-in-stone rule about rotation construction: Sabathia is the number one guy.

Amongst the others, there are a few common themes. One of the main arguments for pitching Wang second, instead of third, is to break up the power pitching combination of Sabathia and Burnett. Another argument is that there are quite a few that believe Burnett will get hurt before it's all said and done, but the counter-argument is that when Burnett is healthy, his stuff can rival the best in the game. In some rotations, Burnett would be a number one-type starter; that the Yankees could pitch him third if they chose to shows a lot about the depth of the rotation.

At the bottom end of the rotation, there are two basic arguments for keeping Joba as the number five starter: 1) He will be on an innings limit and occasionally you do skip a five starter to keep the top guys on a regular schedule, and 2) if Pettitte was to start fifth, then you would have back-to-back lefties in the rotation.

Whatever rotation one does construct, however, there is one basic rule about the rotation's expected performance: If healthy, the 2009 rotation projects to be one of, if not the, best in baseball.

It's a big if--most of us don't need any subtle reminders of last season.

However, unlike last season, the Yankees should be able to avoid a Ponsonarian scheme: if pitcher A gets hurt, pitcher R Replacement could be Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves or Coke all before you have to start worrying about taking a flier on someone.

To put this in perspective, last year, if memory serves, the first pitcher the Yankees called up to fill a void was Rasner. Granted, Rasner performed admirably for a while, but it simply wasn't good enough in the long run.


If we are going to mention weaknesses of this rotation, we would have to say the following:

1) Sabathia was overworked at the end of last season. While it probably won't affect him, as his 2007 didn't seem to hurt his 2008, it's still something to watch.

2) Burnett's notoriously shaky injury history. Hopefully the toils and travails of Carl Pavano mean he'll do everything he can to stay healthy.

3) How CM Wang rebounds from his foot injury. He did injure his push-off foot, so there is plenty of room for concern. Strangely, or perhaps not so strangely, he seems to be attracting the least attention of anyone.

4) Whether Pettitte's year last year was a bloop or if he really has fallen off that much. Either way, though, Pettitte is a pretty solid guarantee to go out and pitch innings, which is ultimately what you need from a four starter.

5) Joba's shoulder. They say shoulders are the things you don't want, and Joba's injury history is one of the reasons he went as low in the draft as he did. Hopefully, by not going starter-reliever-starter with Joba, the Yankees can avoid putting undue stress on his shoulder.


Except for Pettitte, all of the other major concerns with the Yankee rotation amount to concerns over health. So, as stated before, the simple maxim for the rotation is: Stay healthy!

The Yankee pitchers are on the whole, young, and just about to hit or in their prime. It's hard to imagine any team wanting to face this rotation day in and day out. Sabathia, Burnett and Joba are all power pitchers; Wang and Pettitte are by tradition the ground-ball-pitchers-of-doom.

There's a lot to be optimistic about with this rotation--just as long as they stay healthy.

2 comments:

  1. And Phil Hughes will not get a shot. Nor will the other young arms. Just because we had a ton of injuries last year doesn't mean we'll have a ton this year. We always have to have the old guy.

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  2. This is a seriously killer rotation if it stays intact; the downside being that there's little room for the younger pitchers to come up and get experience if everyone stays healthy.

    That said, we can't guarantee health... and the Steinbrenners have fallen back on one of their older ideas: buy a rotation and a half. We've got Aceves either as long relief/spot starter (the role Ray Sadecki once had with the Mets way back when) or in the minors, and Hughes and Kennedy also in the minors, to bring up when someone gets hurt or is nearing an innings limit or is just running out of steam.

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